WESTT (Workload, Error, Situational Awareness, Time and Teamwork): An analytical prototyping system for command and control

Modern developments in the use of information technology within command and control allow unprecedented scope for flexibility in the way teams deal with tasks. These developments, together with the increased recognition of the importance of knowledge management within teams present difficulties for the analyst in terms of evaluating the impacts of changes to task composition or team membership. In this paper an approach to this problem is presented that represents team behaviour in terms of three linked networks (representing task, social network structure and knowledge) within the integrative WESTT software tool. In addition, by automating analyses of workload and error based on the same data that generate the networks, WESTT allows the user to engage in the process of rapid and iterative “analytical prototyping”. For purposes of illustration an example of the use of this technique with regard to a simple tactical vignette is presented

The cyber simulation terrain: Towards an open source cyber effects simulation ontology

Cyber resilience is characterised by an ability to understand and adapt to changing network conditions, including cyber attacks. Cyber resilience may be characterised by an effects-based approach to missions or processes. One of the fundamental preconditions underpinning cyber resilience is an accurate representation of current network and machine states and what missions they are supporting. This research outlines the need for an ontological network representation, drawing on existing literature and implementations in the domain. This work then introduces an open-source ontological representation for modelling cyber assets for the purposes of Computer Network Defence. This representation encompasses computers, network connectivity, users, software, vulnerabilities and exploits and aims for interoperability with related representations in common use. The utility of this work is highlighted against a functional use-case depicting a realistic operational network and mission. Finally, a future research direction is defined

Exploring Fog of War Concepts in Wargame Scenarios

This thesis explores fog of war concepts through three submitted journal articles. The Department of Defense and U.S. Air Force are attempting to analyze war scenarios to aid the decision-making process; fog modeling improves realism in these wargame scenarios. The first article Navigating an Enemy Contested Area with a Parallel Search Algorithm [1] investigates a parallel algorithm\u27s speedup, compared to the sequential implementation, with varying map configurations in a tile-based wargame. The parallel speedup tends to exceed 50 but in certain situations. The sequential algorithm outperforms it depending on the configuration of enemy location and amount on the map. The second article Modeling Fog of War Effects in AFSIM [2] introduces the FAT for the AFSIM to introduce and manipulate fog in wargame scenarios. FAT integrates into AFSIM version 2.7.0 and scenario results verify the tool\u27s fog effects for positioning error, hits, and probability affect the success rate. The third article Applying Fog Analysis Tool to AFSIM Multi-Domain CLASS scenarios [3] furthers the verification of FAT to introduce fog across all war fighting domains using a set of CLASS scenarios. The success rate trends with fog impact for each domain scenario support FAT\u27s effectiveness in disrupting the decision-making process for multi-domain operations. The three articles demonstrate fog can affect search, tasking, and decision-making processes for various types of wargame scenarios. The capabilities introduced in this thesis support wargame analysts to improve decision-making in AFSIM military scenarios

Improving the performance of a dismounted Future Force Warrior by means of C4I2SR

This thesis comprises seven peer-reviewed articles and examines systems and applications suitable for increasing Future Force Warrior performance, minimizing collateral damage, improving situational awareness and Common Operational Picture. Based on a literature study, missing functionalities of Future Force Warrior were identified and new ideas, concepts and solutions were created as part of early stages of Systems of Systems creation. These introduced ideas have not yet been implemented or tested in combat and for this reason benefit analyses are excluded. The main results of this thesis include the following: A new networking concept, Wireless Polling Sensor Network, which is a swarm of a few Unmanned Aerial Vehicles forming an ad-hoc network and polling a large number of fixed sensor nodes. The system is more robust in a military environment than traditional Wireless Sensor Networks. A Business Process approach to Service Oriented Architecture in a tactical setting is a concept for scheduling and sharing limited resources. New components to military Service Oriented Architecture have been introduced in the thesis. Other results of the thesis include an investigation of the use of Free Space Optics in tactical communications, a proposal for tracking neutral forces, a system for upgrading simple collaboration tools for command, control and collaboration purposes, a three-level hierarchy of Future Force Warrior, and methods for reducing incidents of fratricide

Distributed situation awareness: Advances in theory, measurement and application to team work

This thesis was submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy and awarded by Brunel University.Situation Awareness (SA) is critical commodity for teams working in complex sociotechnical systems and is thus a fundamental consideration in collaborative system design and evaluation. Despite this, SA remains predominantly an individual construct, with the majority of models and measures focused on SA from an individual perspective. In comparison, team SA has received much less attention and this thesis argues that further work is required in the area both in relation to the development of theoretical perspectives and of valid measures, and to the development of guidelines for system, training and procedure design. This thesis advances team SA theory and measurement by further investigating a recently proposed model of SA in complex collaborative environments, the Distributed Situation Awareness (DSA) approach, and by testing a new methodology for representing and analysing DSA during real world collaborative activities. A review of SA theory and SA measurement approaches is presented. Following this, the DSA theory and propositional network assessment methodology are outlined and a series of case studies on DSA during real world collaborative activities in the military and civil domains are presented. The findings are subsequently used to explore the concept of DSA and the sub-concepts of compatible and transactive SA. In conclusion, a model of DSA in complex collaborative systems is presented, and a series of system design guidelines for supporting DSA are outlined

A Bayesian Abduction Model For Sensemaking

This research develops a Bayesian Abduction Model for Sensemaking Support (BAMSS) for information fusion in sensemaking tasks. Two methods are investigated. The first is the classical Bayesian information fusion with belief updating (using Bayesian clustering algorithm) and abductive inference. The second method uses a Genetic Algorithm (BAMSS-GA) to search for the k-best most probable explanation (MPE) in the network. Using various data from recent Iraq and Afghanistan conflicts, experimental simulations were conducted to compare the methods using posterior probability values which can be used to give insightful information for prospective sensemaking. The inference results demonstrate the utility of BAMSS as a computational model for sensemaking. The major results obtained are: (1) The inference results from BAMSS-GA gave average posterior probabilities that were 103 better than those produced by BAMSS; (2) BAMSS-GA gave more consistent posterior probabilities as measured by variances; and (3) BAMSS was able to give an MPE while BAMSS-GA was able to identify the optimal values for kMPEs. In the experiments, out of 20 MPEs generated by BAMSS, BAMSS-GA was able to identify 7 plausible network solutions resulting in less amount of information needed for sensemaking and reducing the inference search space by 7/20 (35%). The results reveal that GA can be used successfully in Bayesian information fusion as a search technique to identify those significant posterior probabilities useful for sensemaking. BAMSS-GA was also more robust in overcoming the problem of bounded search that is a constraint to Bayesian clustering and inference state space in BAMSS

Game Theory and Prescriptive Analytics for Naval Wargaming Battle Management Aids

NPS NRP Technical ReportThe Navy is taking advantage of advances in computational technologies and data analytic methods to automate and enhance tactical decisions and support warfighters in highly complex combat environments. Novel automated techniques offer opportunities to support the tactical warfighter through enhanced situational awareness, automated reasoning and problem-solving, and faster decision timelines. This study will investigate how game theory and prescriptive analytics methods can be used to develop real-time wargaming capabilities to support warfighters in their ability to explore and evaluate the possible consequences of different tactical COAs to improve tactical missions. This study will develop a conceptual design of a real-time tactical wargaming capability. This study will explore data analytic methods including game theory, prescriptive analytics, and artificial intelligence (AI) to evaluate their potential to support real-time wargaming.N2/N6 - Information WarfareThis research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

INTEGRATING DIGITAL TWIN CONCEPTS TO ENHANCE AGILITY OF THE UNITED STATES MARINE CORPS’ DECISION SUPPORT FRAMEWORK

Digital twin (DT) application and related technology has the potential to enhance the accuracy of wargame simulations in order to provide risk-informed decision support recommendations. A DT of the operating environment could theoretically be developed to continuously gather data from the operating forces and create computational models or simulations to test battlespace conditions. Effective implementation of DT can provide commanders with timely updates and adjustments to recommendations, aiding the decision-making process. Real-time updates would then inform commanders if the previously recommended course of action is no longer considered optimal based on the continuously running simulations. This thesis performs a qualitative assessment on the integration of a DT-enabled decision support system into the Marine Corps planning process and as an effective tool for leadership at various levels of command. The researchers determined that the wargaming process can be enhanced by incorporating real-time data into simulated future conflict to facilitate the inclusion of data analysis into time-sensitive decisions and potentially improve the management of uncertainty in the decision-making process. Leaders would benefit from increased awareness and quantitative assistance with resource allocation decisions. Expected challenges will be the digitization process of the operating force as well as acculturating leaders to the new technology.Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.Major, United States Marine CorpsCaptain, United States Marine Corp