Backward adaptive brightness temperature threshold technique (BAB3T): A methodology to determine extreme convective initiation regions using satellite infrared imagery

Thunderstorms in southeastern South America (SESA) stand out in satellite observations as being among the strongest on Earth in terms of satellite-based convective proxies, such as lightning flash rate per storm, the prevalence for extremely tall, wide convective cores and broad stratiform regions. Accurately quantifying when and where strong convection is initiated presents great interest in operational forecasting and convective system process studies due to the relationship between convective storms and severe weather phenomena. This paper generates a novel methodology to determine convective initiation (CI) signatures associated with extreme convective systems, including extreme events. Based on the well-established area-overlapping technique, an adaptive brightness temperature threshold for identification and backward tracking with infrared data is introduced in order to better identify areas of deep convection associated with and embedded within larger cloud clusters. This is particularly important over SESA because ground-based weather radar observations are currently limited to particular areas. Extreme rain precipitation features (ERPFs) from Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission are examined to quantify the full satellite-observed life cycle of extreme convective events, although this technique allows examination of other intense convection proxies such as the identification of overshooting tops. CI annual and diurnal cycles are analyzed and distinctive behaviors are observed for different regions over SESA. It is found that near principal mountain barriers, a bimodal diurnal CI distribution is observed denoting the existence of multiple CI triggers, while convective initiation over flat terrain has a maximum frequency in the afternoon.Fil: Cancelada, Maite. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; ArgentinaFil: Salio, Paola Veronica. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; ArgentinaFil: Vila, Daniel. National Institute for Space Research; BrasilFil: Nesbitt, Stephen William. University of Illinois at Urbana; Estados UnidosFil: Vidal, Luciano. Ministerio de Defensa. Secretaria de Planeamiento. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentin

Dry-to-Wet Soil Gradients Enhance Convection and Rainfall over Subtropical South America

Soil moisture-precipitation (SM-PPT) feedbacks at the mesoscale represent a major challenge for numerical weather prediction, especially for subtropical regions that exhibit large variability in surface SM. How does surface heterogeneity, specifically mesoscale gradients in SM and land surface temperature (LST), affect convective initiation (CI) over South America? Using satellite data, we track nascent, daytime convective clouds and quantify the underlying antecedent (morning) surface heterogeneity. We find that convection initiates preferentially on the dry side of strong SM/LST boundaries with spatial scales of tens of kilometers. The strongest alongwind gradients in LST anomalies at 30 km length scale underlying the CI location occur during weak background low-level wind (<2.5m/s), high convective available potential energy (>1500J/kg) and low convective inhibition (<250J/kg) over sparse vegetation. At 100 km scale, strong gradients occur at the CI location during convectively unfavorable conditions and strong background flow. The location of PPT is strongly sensitive to the strength of the background flow. The wind profile during weak background flow inhibits propagation of convection away from the dry regions leading to negative SM-PPT feedback whereas strong background flow is related to longer lifecycle and rainfall hundreds of kilometers away from the CI location. Thus, the sign of the SM-PPT feedback is dependent on the background flow. This work presents the first observational evidence that CI over subtropical South America is associated with dry soil patches on the order of tens of kilometers. Convection-permitting numerical weather prediction models need to be examined for accurately capturing the effect of SM heterogeneity in initiating convection over such semi-arid regions.Comment: 42 pages, 14 figures, 3 tables. Manuscript under peer-revie

Drop size distribution variability in central argentina during relampago-cacti

The Remote sensing of Electrification, Lightning, And Meso-scale/micro-scale Processes with Adaptive Ground Observations (RELAMPAGO) and the Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions Experiment Proposal (CACTI) field campaigns provided an unprecedented thirteendisdrometer dataset in Central Argentina during the Intensive (IOP, 15 November to 15 December 2018) and Extended (EOP, 15 October 2018 to 30 April 2019) Observational Periods. The drop size distribution (DSD) parameters and their variability were analyzed across the region of interest, which was divided into three subregions characterized by the differing proximity to the Sierras de Córdoba (SDC), in order to assess the impact of complex terrain on the DSD parameters. A rigorous quality control of the data was first performed. The frequency distributions of DSD-derived parameters were analyzed, including the normalized intercept parameter (logNw), the mean volume diameter (D0), the mean mass diameter (Dm), the shape parameter (µ), the liquid water content (LWC), and the rain rate (R). The region closest to the SDC presented higher values of logNw, lower D0, and higher µ, while the opposite occurred in the farthest region, i.e., the concentration of small drops decreased while the concentration of bigger drops increased with the distance to the east of the SDC. Furthermore, the region closest to the SDC showed a bimodal distribution of D0: the lower values of D0 were associated with higher values of logNw and were found more frequently during the afternoon, while the higher D0 were associated with lower logNw and occurred more frequently during the night. The data were analyzed in comparison to the statistical analysis of Dolan et al. 2018 and sorted according to the classification proposed in the cited study. The logNw-D0 and LWC-D0 two-dimensional distributions allowed further discussion around the applicability of other mid-latitude and global precipitation classification schemes (startiform/convection) in the region of interest. Finally, three precipitation case studies were analyzed with supporting polarimetric radar data in order to relate the DSD characteristics to the precipitation type and the microphysical processes involved in each case.Fil: Casanovas, Candela Rocío. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; ArgentinaFil: Salio, Paola Veronica. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; ArgentinaFil: Galligani, Victoria Sol. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; ArgentinaFil: Dolan, Brenda. State University of Colorado - Fort Collins; Estados UnidosFil: Nesbitt, Stephen William. University of Illinois at Urbana; Estados Unido

Caracterización de los Avisos meteorológicos a muy Corto Plazo en el Período 2014-2021

Fil: Ishikame, Gabriela. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional. Dirección Nacional de Pronósticos y Servicios para la Sociedad. Dirección de Pronósticos del Tiempo y Avisos. Coordinación de Pronósticos Inmediatos; Argentina.Fil: Pappalardo, Laura. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional. Dirección Nacional de Pronósticos y Servicios para la Sociedad. Dirección de Pronósticos del Tiempo y Avisos. Coordinación de Pronósticos Inmediatos; Argentina.Fil: Lohigorry, Pedro Miguel. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional. Gerencia de Servicios a la Comunidad. División de Vigilancia Meteorológica por Sensoramiento Remoto; Argentina.El análisis de los atributos tales como el área, el título, la hora de emisión y la distribución espacial de los centroides de los Avisos meteorológicos a muy Corto Plazo (ACPs) permite conocer cómo fue la evolución de los avisos que fueron emitidos entre noviembre de 2014 y diciembre de 2021 desde una perspectiva objetiva. Además, se reseñan las limitaciones pasadas que fueron decisivas para la implementación de cambios importantes en los ACPs. En este estudio se ha encontrado una tendencia creciente de emisión de los ACP, relacionada no sólo con el aumento de la cantidad de radares y de pronosticadores en la oficina de nowcasting sino también con una mayor disponibilidad de fuentes de información, incluyendo los reportes de tiempo severo en redes sociales. No obstante, algunas cuestiones técnicas y de estandarización serán necesarias establecer a futuro para continuar mejorando este producto.Analyzing attributes such as area, title, emission time and average spatial location on ACPs (warning product) has provided the knowledge of how the warnings issued between November 2014 and December 2021 have evolved in an objective way. We recall our past limitations and explain what changes have been made on this product so far. In this study, we found that the quantity of warnings has increased, not only due to better radar coverage, but also because more forecasters have been hired and new data resources have been available like social media weather reports. Nonetheless, some technical considerations and standardization procedures must be set on this product in order to keep on improving it