Learning Hybrid Process Models From Events: Process Discovery Without Faking Confidence

Process discovery techniques return process models that are either formal (precisely describing the possible behaviors) or informal (merely a "picture" not allowing for any form of formal reasoning). Formal models are able to classify traces (i.e., sequences of events) as fitting or non-fitting. Most process mining approaches described in the literature produce such models. This is in stark contrast with the over 25 available commercial process mining tools that only discover informal process models that remain deliberately vague on the precise set of possible traces. There are two main reasons why vendors resort to such models: scalability and simplicity. In this paper, we propose to combine the best of both worlds: discovering hybrid process models that have formal and informal elements. As a proof of concept we present a discovery technique based on hybrid Petri nets. These models allow for formal reasoning, but also reveal information that cannot be captured in mainstream formal models. A novel discovery algorithm returning hybrid Petri nets has been implemented in ProM and has been applied to several real-life event logs. The results clearly demonstrate the advantages of remaining "vague" when there is not enough "evidence" in the data or standard modeling constructs do not "fit". Moreover, the approach is scalable enough to be incorporated in industrial-strength process mining tools.Comment: 25 pages, 12 figure

CARET analysis of multithreaded programs

Dynamic Pushdown Networks (DPNs) are a natural model for multithreaded programs with (recursive) procedure calls and thread creation. On the other hand, CARET is a temporal logic that allows to write linear temporal formulas while taking into account the matching between calls and returns. We consider in this paper the model-checking problem of DPNs against CARET formulas. We show that this problem can be effectively solved by a reduction to the emptiness problem of B\"uchi Dynamic Pushdown Systems. We then show that CARET model checking is also decidable for DPNs communicating with locks. Our results can, in particular, be used for the detection of concurrent malware.Comment: Pre-proceedings paper presented at the 27th International Symposium on Logic-Based Program Synthesis and Transformation (LOPSTR 2017), Namur, Belgium, 10-12 October 2017 (arXiv:1708.07854

On the nature of an excited state

In many lattice simulations with dynamical quarks, radial or orbital excitations of hadrons lie near multihadron thresholds: it makes the extraction of excited states properties more challenging and can introduce some systematics difficult to estimate without an explicit computation of correlators using interpolating fields strongly coupled to multihadronic states. In a recent study of the strong decay of the first radial excitation of the $B^*$ meson, this issue has been investigated and we have clues that a diquark interpolating field $\bar{b} \gamma^i q$ is very weakly coupled to a $B \pi$ $P$-wave state while the situation is quite different if we consider an interpolating field of the kind $\bar{b} \nabla^i q$, where $\vec{\nabla}$ is a covariant derivative: those statements are based on examining the charge density distribution.Comment: Proceedings of the 34th International Symposium on Lattice Field Theory (Lattice 2016), 25 - 30 July 2016, Southampton, Great Britai

LSTM Networks for Data-Aware Remaining Time Prediction of Business Process Instances

Predicting the completion time of business process instances would be a very helpful aid when managing processes under service level agreement constraints. The ability to know in advance the trend of running process instances would allow business managers to react in time, in order to prevent delays or undesirable situations. However, making such accurate forecasts is not easy: many factors may influence the required time to complete a process instance. In this paper, we propose an approach based on deep Recurrent Neural Networks (specifically LSTMs) that is able to exploit arbitrary information associated to single events, in order to produce an as-accurate-as-possible prediction of the completion time of running instances. Experiments on real-world datasets confirm the quality of our proposal.Comment: Article accepted for publication in 2017 IEEE Symposium on Deep Learning (IEEE DL'17) @ SSC

Predicting deadline transgressions using event logs

Effective risk management is crucial for any organisation. One of its key steps is risk identification, but few tools exist to support this process. Here we present a method for the automatic discovery of a particular type of process-related risk, the danger of deadline transgressions or overruns, based on the analysis of event logs. We define a set of time-related process risk indicators, i.e., patterns observable in event logs that highlight the likelihood of an overrun, and then show how instances of these patterns can be identified automatically using statistical principles. To demonstrate its feasibility, the approach has been implemented as a plug-in module to the process mining framework ProM and tested using an event log from a Dutch financial institution

Energy Efficient Execution of POMDP Policies

Recent advances in planning techniques for partially observable Markov decision processes have focused on online search techniques and offline point-based value iteration. While these techniques allow practitioners to obtain policies for fairly large problems, they assume that a non-negligible amount of computation can be done between each decision point. In contrast, the recent proliferation of mobile and embedded devices has lead to a surge of applications that could benefit from state of the art planning techniques if they can operate under severe constraints on computational resources. To that effect, we describe two techniques to compile policies into controllers that can be executed by a mere table lookup at each decision point. The first approach compiles policies induced by a set of alpha vectors (such as those obtained by point-based techniques) into approximately equivalent controllers, while the second approach performs a simulation to compile arbitrary policies into approximately equivalent controllers. We also describe an approach to compress controllers by removing redundant and dominated nodes, often yielding smaller and yet better controllers. Further compression and higher value can sometimes be obtained by considering stochastic controllers. The compilation and compression techniques are demonstrated on benchmark problems as well as a mobile application to help persons with Alzheimer's to way-find. The battery consumption of several POMDP policies is compared against finite-state controllers learned using methods introduced in this paper. Experiments performed on the Nexus 4 phone show that finite-state controllers are the least battery consuming POMDP policies

Predictive Monitoring of Business Processes

Modern information systems that support complex business processes generally maintain significant amounts of process execution data, particularly records of events corresponding to the execution of activities (event logs). In this paper, we present an approach to analyze such event logs in order to predictively monitor business goals during business process execution. At any point during an execution of a process, the user can define business goals in the form of linear temporal logic rules. When an activity is being executed, the framework identifies input data values that are more (or less) likely to lead to the achievement of each business goal. Unlike reactive compliance monitoring approaches that detect violations only after they have occurred, our predictive monitoring approach provides early advice so that users can steer ongoing process executions towards the achievement of business goals. In other words, violations are predicted (and potentially prevented) rather than merely detected. The approach has been implemented in the ProM process mining toolset and validated on a real-life log pertaining to the treatment of cancer patients in a large hospital