Playing in Invisible Markets: Innovations in the Market for Toilets to Harness the Economic Power of the Poor

Sanitation is at the heart of not only environmental security but also food security and health. Today about 41% of the global population or about 2.6 billion people do not have access to toilets and about 42,000 people die every week due to drinking water polluted with faecal matter. The problem is most acute in India, China, many countries of Africa and a few countries of Latin America. Why is there such a crisis in the toilets market? How much of the present problem is due to a lack of supply and how much is it due to a lack of demand? What is the optimal role of the State, the firms and the NPOs? The present paper attempts to give some insight on the above questions through the case study of the market for toilets for the poor in India. It examines the toilet history and achievements of India, the innovations in the market for toilets targeting the group at the bottom of the income pyramid and the factors that influence the adoption and usage of toilets in an Indian coastal village, in order to infer answers to the above questions.Toilets, Innovation, India, Health, Hygiene, Sanitation, BOP, Income Inequality, Empowerment, Entrepreneurship, Government Policy

Irrationality or efficiency of macroeconomic survey forecasts? Implications from the anchoring bias test

We analyze the quality of macroeconomic survey forecasts. Recent findings indicate that they are anchoring biased. This irrationality would challenge the results of a wide range of empirical studies, e.g., in asset pricing, volatility clustering or market liquidity, which rely on survey data to capture market participants' expectations. We contribute to the existing literature in two ways. First, we show that the cognitive bias is a statistical artifact. Despite highly significant anchoring coefficients a bias adjustment does not improve forecasts' quality. To explain this counterintuitive result we take a closer look at macroeconomic analysts' information processing abilities. We find that analysts benefit from the use of an extensive information set, neglected in the anchoring bias test. Exactly this information advantage drives the misleading anchoring bias test results. Second, we find that the superior information aggregation capabilities enable analysts to easily outperform sophisticated timeseries forecasts and therefore survey forecasts should clearly be favored. --macroeconomic announcements,efficiency of forecasts,anchoring bias,rationality of analysts

Evolutionary design assistants for architecture

In its parallel pursuit of an increased competitivity for design offices and more pleasurable and easier workflows for designers, artificial design intelligence is a technical, intellectual, and political challenge. While human-machine cooperation has become commonplace through Computer Aided Design (CAD) tools, a more improved collaboration and better support appear possible only through an endeavor into a kind of artificial design intelligence, which is more sensitive to the human perception of affairs. Considered as part of the broader Computational Design studies, the research program of this quest can be called Artificial / Autonomous / Automated Design (AD). The current available level of Artificial Intelligence (AI) for design is limited and a viable aim for current AD would be to develop design assistants that are capable of producing drafts for various design tasks. Thus, the overall aim of this thesis is the development of approaches, techniques, and tools towards artificial design assistants that offer a capability for generating drafts for sub-tasks within design processes. The main technology explored for this aim is Evolutionary Computation (EC), and the target design domain is architecture. The two connected research questions of the study concern, first, the investigation of the ways to develop an architectural design assistant, and secondly, the utilization of EC for the development of such assistants. While developing approaches, techniques, and computational tools for such an assistant, the study also carries out a broad theoretical investigation into the main problems, challenges, and requirements towards such assistants on a rather overall level. Therefore, the research is shaped as a parallel investigation of three main threads interwoven along several levels, moving from a more general level to specific applications. The three research threads comprise, first, theoretical discussions and speculations with regard to both existing literature and the proposals and applications of the thesis; secondly, proposals for descriptive and prescriptive models, mappings, summary illustrations, task structures, decomposition schemes, and integratory frameworks; and finally, experimental applications of these proposals. This tripartite progression allows an evaluation of each proposal both conceptually and practically; thereby, enabling a progressive improvement of the understanding regarding the research question, while producing concrete outputs on the way. Besides theoretical and interpretative examinations, the thesis investigates its subject through a set of practical and speculative proposals, which function as both research instruments and the outputs of the study. The first main output of the study is the “design_proxy” approach (d_p), which is an integrated approach for draft making design assistants. It is an outcome of both theoretical examinations and experimental applications, and proposes an integration of, (1) flexible and relaxed task definitions and representations (instead of strict formalisms), (2) intuitive interfaces that make use of usual design media, (3) evaluation of solution proposals through their similarity to given examples, and (4) a dynamic evolutionary approach for solution generation. The design_proxy approach may be useful for AD researchers that aim at developing practical design assistants, as has been examined and demonstrated with the two applications, i.e., design_proxy.graphics and design_proxy.layout. The second main output, the “Interleaved Evolutionary Algorithm” (IEA, or Interleaved EA) is a novel evolutionary algorithm proposed and used as the underlying generative mechanism of design_proxybased design assistants. The Interleaved EA is a dynamic, adaptive, and multi-objective EA, in which one of the objectives leads the evolution until its fitness progression stagnates; in the sense that the settings and fitness values of this objective is used for most evolutionary decisions. In this way, the Interleaved EA enables the use of different settings and operators for each of the objectives within an overall task, which would be the same for all objectives in a regular multi-objective EA. This property gives the algorithm a modular structure, which offers an improvable method for the utilization of domain-specific knowledge for each sub-task, i.e., objective. The Interleaved EA can be used by Evolutionary Computation (EC) researchers and by practitioners who employ EC for their tasks. As a third main output, the “Architectural Stem Cells Framework” is a conceptual framework for architectural design assistants. It proposes a dynamic and multi-layered method for combining a set of design assistants for larger tasks in architectural design. The first component of the framework is a layer-based, parallel task decomposition approach, which aims at obtaining a dynamic parallelization of sub-tasks within a more complicated problem. The second component of the framework is a conception for the development mechanisms for building drafts, i.e., Architectural Stem Cells (ASC). An ASC can be conceived as a semantically marked geometric structure, which contains the information that specifies the possibilities and constraints for how an abstract building may develop from an undetailed stage to a fully developed building draft. ASCs are required for re-integrating the separated task layers of an architectural problem through solution-based development. The ASC Framework brings together many of the ideas of this thesis for a practical research agenda and it is presented to the AD researchers in architecture. Finally, the “design_proxy.layout” (d_p.layout) is an architectural layout design assistant based on the design_proxy approach and the IEA. The system uses a relaxed problem definition (producing draft layouts) and a flexible layout representation that permits the overlapping of design units and boundaries. User interaction with the system is carried out through intuitive 2D graphics and the functional evaluations are performed by measuring the similarity of a proposal to existing layouts. Functioning in an integrated manner, these properties make the system a practicable and enjoying design assistant, which was demonstrated through two workshop cases. The d_p.layout is a versatile and robust layout design assistant that can be used by architects in their design processes

Advances in Artificial Intelligence: Models, Optimization, and Machine Learning

The present book contains all the articles accepted and published in the Special Issue “Advances in Artificial Intelligence: Models, Optimization, and Machine Learning” of the MDPI Mathematics journal, which covers a wide range of topics connected to the theory and applications of artificial intelligence and its subfields. These topics include, among others, deep learning and classic machine learning algorithms, neural modelling, architectures and learning algorithms, biologically inspired optimization algorithms, algorithms for autonomous driving, probabilistic models and Bayesian reasoning, intelligent agents and multiagent systems. We hope that the scientific results presented in this book will serve as valuable sources of documentation and inspiration for anyone willing to pursue research in artificial intelligence, machine learning and their widespread applications

Spatial-temporal reasoning applications of computational intelligence in the game of Go and computer networks

Spatial-temporal reasoning is the ability to reason with spatial images or information about space over time. In this dissertation, computational intelligence techniques are applied to computer Go and computer network applications. Among four experiments, the first three are related to the game of Go, and the last one concerns the routing problem in computer networks. The first experiment represents the first training of a modified cellular simultaneous recurrent network (CSRN) trained with cellular particle swarm optimization (PSO). Another contribution is the development of a comprehensive theoretical study of a 2x2 Go research platform with a certified 5 dan Go expert. The proposed architecture successfully trains a 2x2 game tree. The contribution of the second experiment is the development of a computational intelligence algorithm calledcollective cooperative learning (CCL). CCL learns the group size of Go stones on a Go board with zero knowledge by communicating only with the immediate neighbors. An analysis determines the lower bound of a design parameter that guarantees a solution. The contribution of the third experiment is the proposal of a unified system architecture for a Go robot. A prototype Go robot is implemented for the first time in the literature. The last experiment tackles a disruption-tolerant routing problem for a network suffering from link disruption. This experiment represents the first time that the disruption-tolerant routing problem has been formulated with a Markov Decision Process. In addition, the packet delivery rate has been improved under a range of link disruption levels via a reinforcement learning approach --Abstract, page iv