An agent-based fuzzy cognitive map approach to the strategic marketing planning for industrial firms

This is the post-print version of the final paper published in Industrial Marketing Management. The published article is available from the link below. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. Copyright @ 2013 Elsevier B.V.Industrial marketing planning is a typical example of an unstructured decision making problem due to the large number of variables to consider and the uncertainty imposed on those variables. Although abundant studies identified barriers and facilitators of effective industrial marketing planning in practice, the literature still lacks practical tools and methods that marketing managers can use for the task. This paper applies fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM) to industrial marketing planning. In particular, agent based inference method is proposed to overcome dynamic relationships, time lags, and reusability issues of FCM evaluation. MACOM simulator also is developed to help marketing managers conduct what-if scenarios to see the impacts of possible changes on the variables defined in an FCM that represents industrial marketing planning problem. The simulator is applied to an industrial marketing planning problem for a global software service company in South Korea. This study has practical implication as it supports marketing managers for industrial marketing planning that has large number of variables and their cause–effect relationships. It also contributes to FCM theory by providing an agent based method for the inference of FCM. Finally, MACOM also provides academics in the industrial marketing management discipline with a tool for developing and pre-verifying a conceptual model based on qualitative knowledge of marketing practitioners.Ministry of Education, Science and Technology (Korea

Dynamic Model to Assess Organisational Readiness during Information System Implementation

This paper presents a methodology for assessing an organisation’s readiness to implement an information system (IS). We use the technique of fuzzy cognitive maps which draws on the theory of Neural Networks. The techniques comprising the model have been used in many applications, but their use in the planning of change management projects is relatively new. The paper explains the theory, presents a numerical example, and suggests practical uses of the model

Reasoning with linguistic preferences using NPN logic

Negative-positive-neutral logic provides an alternative framework for fuzzy cognitive maps development and decision analysis. This paper reviews basic notion of NPN logic and NPN relations and proposes adaptive approach to causality weights assessment. It employs linguistic models of causality weights activated by measurement-based fuzzy cognitive maps' concepts values. These models allow for quasi-dynamical adaptation to the change of concepts values, providing deeper understanding of possible side effects. Since in the real-world environments almost every decision has its consequences, presenting very valuable portion of information upon which we also make our decisions, the knowledge about the side effects enables more reliable decision analysis and directs actions of decision maker

A fuzzy knowledge-based framework for risk assessment of residential real estate investments

Risk analysis of residential real estate investments requires careful analysis of certain variables (or determinants). Because real estate is a key sector for economic and social development, this risk analysis is seen as critical in supporting decision processes relating to buying or selling residential properties, partly due to the pressures caused by the current economic environment. This study aims to develop a conceptual reference model for risk assessment of residential real estate using fuzzy cognitive mapping. This fuzzy model allows cause-and-effect relationships between determinants to be identified and better understood, which in turn allows for better informed investment decisions. The results show that the use of cognitive maps reduces the number of omitted criteria and favors learning with regard to how the criteria relate to each other, holding great potential and versatility in structuring complex decision problems. Practical implications, strengths and weaknesses of our proposal are discussed.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Key Elements of Thinking Strategically

Strategic thinking is one of the most important capabilities which managers of today’s organizations must possess. Holding companies, due to the kind of problems that they experience, are in serious need of managers capable of strategic thinking. The present research has been conducted with the aim of identifying the individual dimensions of strategic thinking in holding companies’ managers in Iran. In this regard, a number of managers who have had the experience of being members of the board of directors or working as CEOs of these firms have been asked to express their opinions about strategic thinking and their views have been analyzed using fuzzy cognitive maps. Results suggest that having vision, ability to analyze, having systems thinking, ability to question, creativity, ability to make synergy and ability to create advantage are the main elements of strategic thinking in successful managers of holding companies. In addition, the relationships among these variables have been explained

Development of Causal Model of Sustainable Hospital Supply Chain Management Using the Intuitionistic Fuzzy Cognitive Map (IFCM) Method

Purpose: Service industry is a massive sector accounting for about two-thirds of GDP of developed economies and is the field of an intensive competition between service companies and their supply chains. As a result, service supply chain management has become a subject of growing interest to researchers and business analysts. Healthcare industry is among the largest service industries with the highest potential for improvement in sustainability performance. The purpose of this study was to identify the concepts influencing the sustainability of hospital supply chain and provide a causal model for sustainable supply chain of hospital service. two aspects of contribution are identified for this research. Design/methodology/approach: In this study, concepts that influence the sustainability of a hospital service supply chain were identified by in-depth interviewing of 18 experts in hospitals of Kerman, Iran. Delphi method was used to reorganize the initial concepts into 15 concepts, Thus, a framework for sustainable supply chain of the hospital is proposed in the present study. This is the first contribution of this study. The second contribution is using the intuitive fuzzy cognitive map method for the relationship between extracted concepts. Findings: Delphi method was used to reorganize 68 initial concepts into 15 concepts Contains: demand management, resource and capacity management, customer relationship management, supplier relationship management, service management, information management, financial performance management, Attention to the environment, contamination, energy consumption, legal requirements, employees, community and stakeholders, social accountability and business ethics. The results indicate that service delivery management is highly central among other concepts. Originality/value: with focusing on concepts such as service management, and capacity and resources management, The sustainability of the hospital supply chain can be improved.Peer Reviewe