Augmented Probability Simulation Methods for Non-cooperative Games

We present a robust decision support framework with computational algorithms for decision makers in non-cooperative sequential setups. Existing simulation based approaches can be inefficient when there is a large number of feasible decisions and uncertain outcomes. Hence, we provide a novel alternative to solve non-cooperative sequential games based on augmented probability simulation. We propose approaches to approximate subgame perfect equilibria under complete information, assess the robustness of such solutions and, finally, approximate adversarial risk analysis solutions when lacking complete information. This framework could be especially beneficial in application domains such as cybersecurity and counter-terrorism

Contribuciones a la Seguridad del Aprendizaje Automático

Tesis inédita de la Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Matemáticas, leída el 05-11-2020Machine learning (ML) applications have experienced an unprecedented growth over the last two decades. However, the ever increasing adoption of ML methodologies has revealed important security issues. Among these, vulnerabilities to adversarial examples, data instances targeted at fooling ML algorithms, are especially important. Examples abound. For instance, it is relatively easy to fool a spam detector simply misspelling spam words. Obfuscation of malware code can make it seem legitimate. Simply adding stickers to a stop sign could make an autonomous vehicle classify it as a merge sign. Consequences could be catastrophic. Indeed, ML is designed to work in stationary and benign environments. However, in certain scenarios, the presence of adversaries that actively manipulate input datato fool ML systems to attain benefits break such stationarity requirements. Training and operation conditions are not identical anymore. This creates a whole new class of security vulnerabilities that ML systems may face and a new desirable property: adversarial robustness. If we are to trust operations based on ML outputs, it becomes essential that learning systems are robust to such adversarial manipulations...Las aplicaciones del aprendizaje automático o machine learning (ML) han experimentado un crecimiento sin precedentes en las últimas dos décadas. Sin embargo, la adopción cada vez mayor de metodologías de ML ha revelado importantes problemas de seguridad. Entre estos, destacan las vulnerabilidades a ejemplos adversarios, es decir; instancias de datos destinadas a engañar a los algoritmos de ML. Los ejemplos abundan: es relativamente fácil engañar a un detector de spam simplemente escribiendo mal algunas palabras características de los correos basura. La ofuscación de código malicioso (malware) puede hacer que parezca legítimo. Agregando unos parches a una señal de stop, se podría provocar que un vehículo autónomo la reconociese como una señal de dirección obligatoria. Cómo puede imaginar el lector, las consecuencias de estas vulnerabilidades pueden llegar a ser catastróficas. Y es que el machine learning está diseñado para trabajar en entornos estacionarios y benignos. Sin embargo, en ciertos escenarios, la presencia de adversarios que manipulan activamente los datos de entrada para engañar a los sistemas de ML(logrando así beneficios), rompen tales requisitos de estacionariedad. Las condiciones de entrenamiento y operación de los algoritmos ya no son idénticas, quebrándose una de las hipótesis fundamentales del ML. Esto crea una clase completamente nueva de vulnerabilidades que los sistemas basados en el aprendizaje automático deben enfrentar y una nueva propiedad deseable: la robustez adversaria. Si debemos confiaren las operaciones basadas en resultados del ML, es esencial que los sistemas de aprendizaje sean robustos a tales manipulaciones adversarias...Fac. de Ciencias MatemáticasTRUEunpu

A Bayesian-Network-Based Framework for Risk Analysis and Decision Making in Cybersecurity

PhD ThesesMany approaches have been proposed to define, measure and manage cybersecurity risk. A common theme underpinning Cybersecurity Risk Assessment (CRA) involves modelling relationships between risk factors and the use of statistical and probabilistic inference to calculate risk. This thesis focuses on the use of Bayesian Networks (BNs) for this dual purpose. The application of BNs to CRA was a nontrivial task while with the computational efficiency and flexibility of BN algorithms has improved such that they can now be widely applied to solve a variety of CRA problems. One such advance is in Hybrid Bayesian Networks (HBNs) to support inference in models containing discrete and continuous variables. HBNs are now routinely used for prediction and diagnostic inference tasks and have been extended, in the form of Influence Diagrams (IDs), to support decision making tasks. This thesis proposes an HBN based CRA framework for comprehensive cybersecurity causal risk analysis and probabilistic calculation. We introduce causal risk analysis into cybersecurity problems and use a kill chain model to illustrate how causal analysis can guide the cybersecurity risk modelling. The proposed framework is flexible and extensible in a way that it can incorporate other CRA models built using BNs. We illustrate this by showing how the framework can incorporate risk analysis models of both organizational and technical perspectives. For organizational risk analysis, where the focus is on defending information assets/systems of organizations in an economically efficient way, the thesis shows how BNs can be used for modelling causal/probabilistic relationship between involved variables and conducting risk assessment. For technical risk analysis, which is motived by the perspective of cybersecurity analysts, it argues that IDs can be used to model the game between the defender and the attacker in a cybersecurity problem, calculate risks and support designing optimal cyber defenses dynamically

White Paper 11: Artificial intelligence, robotics & data science

198 p. : 17 cmSIC white paper on Artificial Intelligence, Robotics and Data Science sketches a preliminary roadmap for addressing current R&D challenges associated with automated and autonomous machines. More than 50 research challenges investigated all over Spain by more than 150 experts within CSIC are presented in eight chapters. Chapter One introduces key concepts and tackles the issue of the integration of knowledge (representation), reasoning and learning in the design of artificial entities. Chapter Two analyses challenges associated with the development of theories –and supporting technologies– for modelling the behaviour of autonomous agents. Specifically, it pays attention to the interplay between elements at micro level (individual autonomous agent interactions) with the macro world (the properties we seek in large and complex societies). While Chapter Three discusses the variety of data science applications currently used in all fields of science, paying particular attention to Machine Learning (ML) techniques, Chapter Four presents current development in various areas of robotics. Chapter Five explores the challenges associated with computational cognitive models. Chapter Six pays attention to the ethical, legal, economic and social challenges coming alongside the development of smart systems. Chapter Seven engages with the problem of the environmental sustainability of deploying intelligent systems at large scale. Finally, Chapter Eight deals with the complexity of ensuring the security, safety, resilience and privacy-protection of smart systems against cyber threats.18 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE, ROBOTICS AND DATA SCIENCE Topic Coordinators Sara Degli Esposti ( IPP-CCHS, CSIC ) and Carles Sierra ( IIIA, CSIC ) 18 CHALLENGE 1 INTEGRATING KNOWLEDGE, REASONING AND LEARNING Challenge Coordinators Felip Manyà ( IIIA, CSIC ) and Adrià Colomé ( IRI, CSIC – UPC ) 38 CHALLENGE 2 MULTIAGENT SYSTEMS Challenge Coordinators N. Osman ( IIIA, CSIC ) and D. López ( IFS, CSIC ) 54 CHALLENGE 3 MACHINE LEARNING AND DATA SCIENCE Challenge Coordinators J. J. Ramasco Sukia ( IFISC ) and L. Lloret Iglesias ( IFCA, CSIC ) 80 CHALLENGE 4 INTELLIGENT ROBOTICS Topic Coordinators G. Alenyà ( IRI, CSIC – UPC ) and J. Villagra ( CAR, CSIC ) 100 CHALLENGE 5 COMPUTATIONAL COGNITIVE MODELS Challenge Coordinators M. D. del Castillo ( CAR, CSIC) and M. Schorlemmer ( IIIA, CSIC ) 120 CHALLENGE 6 ETHICAL, LEGAL, ECONOMIC, AND SOCIAL IMPLICATIONS Challenge Coordinators P. Noriega ( IIIA, CSIC ) and T. Ausín ( IFS, CSIC ) 142 CHALLENGE 7 LOW-POWER SUSTAINABLE HARDWARE FOR AI Challenge Coordinators T. Serrano ( IMSE-CNM, CSIC – US ) and A. Oyanguren ( IFIC, CSIC - UV ) 160 CHALLENGE 8 SMART CYBERSECURITY Challenge Coordinators D. Arroyo Guardeño ( ITEFI, CSIC ) and P. Brox Jiménez ( IMSE-CNM, CSIC – US )Peer reviewe