Origin of Crashes in 3 US stock markets: Shocks and Bubbles

This paper presents an exclusive classification of the largest crashes in Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), SP500 and NASDAQ in the past century. Crashes are objectively defined as the top-rank filtered drawdowns (loss from the last local maximum to the next local minimum disregarding noise fluctuations), where the size of the filter is determined by the historical volatility of the index. It is shown that {\it all} crashes can be linked to either an external shock, {\it e.g.}, outbreak of war, {\it or} a log-periodic power law (LPPL) bubble with an empirically well-defined complex value of the exponent. Conversely, with one sole exception {\it all} previously identified LPPL bubbles are followed by a top-rank drawdown. As a consequence, the analysis presented suggest a one-to-one correspondence between market crashes defined as top-rank filtered drawdowns on one hand and surprising news and LPPL bubbles on the other. We attribute this correspondence to the Efficient Market Hypothesis effective on two quite different time scales depending on whether the market instability the crash represent is internally or externally generated.Comment: 7 pages including 3 tables and 3 figures. Subm. for Proceeding of Frontier Science 200

Probing spin dynamics and quantum relaxation in LiY0.998Ho0.002F4 via 19F NMR

We report measurements of 19F nuclear spin-lattice relaxation 1/T1 as a function of temperature and external magnetic field in LiY0.998Ho0.002F4 single crystal, a single-ion magnet exhibiting interesting quantum effects. The 19F 1/T1 is found to depend on the coupling with the diluted rare-earth (RE) moments. Depending on the temperature range, a fast spin diffusion regime or a diffusion limited regime is encountered. In both cases we find it possible to use the 19F nucleus as a probe of the rare-earth spin dynamics. The results for 1/T1 show a behavior similar to that observed in molecular nanomagnets, a result which we attribute to the discreteness of the energy levels in both cases. At intermediate temperatures the lifetime broadening of the crystal field split RE magnetic levels follows a T3 power law. At low temperature the field dependence of 1/T1 shows peaks in correspondence to the critical magnetic fields for energy level crossings (LC). The results can be explained by inelastic scattering between the fluorine nuclear spins and the RE magnetic levels. A key result of this study is that the broadening of the levels at LC is found to be become extremely small at low temperatures, about 1.7 mT, a value which is comparable to the weak dipolar fields at the RE lattice positions. Thus, unlike the molecular magnets, decoherence effects are strongly suppressed, and it may be possible to measure directly the level repulsions at avoided level crossings.Comment: 21 pages, 5 figure

Assessing brand image through communalitites and asymmetries brand-to-attribute and attribute-to-brand associations.

Brand image is a key component of customer-based brand equity, and refers to the associations a consumer holds in memory. Such associations are often directional; one should distinguish between brand-to-attribute and attribute-to-brand associations. Information on these associations arise from two ways of collecting data respectively: brand-by-brand evaluations of all attributes and attribute-by-attribute evaluations of all brands. In this paper, the authors present a methodological approach, namely correspondence analysis of matched matrices, to assess the communalitites as well as asymmetries between brand-to-attribute and attribute-to-brand associations. The methodology results in perceptual maps visualizing brand image. The approach is illustrated in an empirical market research project in which two samples of consumers evaluated ten brands of deodorants and eleven attributes

Validation in the Software Metric Development Process

In this paper the validation of software metrics will be examined. Two approaches will be combined: representational measurement theory and a validation network scheme. The development process of a software metric will be described, together with validities for the three phases of the metric development process. Representation axioms from measurement theory are used both for the formal and empirical validation. The differentiation of validities according to these phases unifies several validation approaches found in the software metric's literature

A comparison between correspondence analysis and categorical conjoint measurement

We show the equivalence of using correspondence analysis of concatenated tables and a particular algorithm of conjoint analysis named categorical conjoint measurement. The connection is made using canonical correlation. However, although we have proved that equivalence, the standard practice of conjoint analyses to focus in one dimension (the optimal solution) has some shortcomings once we introduce interaction effects. In that case, the use of visual techniques, like correspondence analysis, provides a faster and easier way to compile the preference structure. Finally, we provide an application of our setting making use of an experiment of perfumes where interaction effects between type of essences and strength of essences are shown

Multilingual Schema Matching for Wikipedia Infoboxes

Recent research has taken advantage of Wikipedia's multilingualism as a resource for cross-language information retrieval and machine translation, as well as proposed techniques for enriching its cross-language structure. The availability of documents in multiple languages also opens up new opportunities for querying structured Wikipedia content, and in particular, to enable answers that straddle different languages. As a step towards supporting such queries, in this paper, we propose a method for identifying mappings between attributes from infoboxes that come from pages in different languages. Our approach finds mappings in a completely automated fashion. Because it does not require training data, it is scalable: not only can it be used to find mappings between many language pairs, but it is also effective for languages that are under-represented and lack sufficient training samples. Another important benefit of our approach is that it does not depend on syntactic similarity between attribute names, and thus, it can be applied to language pairs that have distinct morphologies. We have performed an extensive experimental evaluation using a corpus consisting of pages in Portuguese, Vietnamese, and English. The results show that not only does our approach obtain high precision and recall, but it also outperforms state-of-the-art techniques. We also present a case study which demonstrates that the multilingual mappings we derive lead to substantial improvements in answer quality and coverage for structured queries over Wikipedia content.Comment: VLDB201