Incorporating spatial variation in housing attribute prices: A comparison of geographically weighted regression and the spatial expansion method

Hedonic house price models typically impose a constant price structure on housing characteristics throughout an entire market area. However, there is increasing evidence that the marginal prices of many important attributes vary over space, especially within large markets. In this paper, we compare two approaches to examine spatial heterogeneity in housing attribute prices within the Tucson, Arizona housing market: the spatial expansion method and geographically weighted regression (GWR). Our results provide strong evidence that the marginal price of key housing characteristics varies over space. GWR outperforms the spatial expansion method in terms of explanatory power and predictive accuracy.

Did the 2007 Legal Arizona Workers Act Reduce the State's Unauthorized Immigrant Population?

We test for an effect of Arizona’s 2007 Legal Arizona Workers Act (LAWA) on the proportion of the state population characterized as foreign-born, as non-citizen, and as non-citizen Hispanic. We use the synthetic control method to select a group of states against which the population trends of Arizona can be compared. We document a notable and statistically significant reduction in the proportion of the Arizona population that is foreign-born and in particular, that is Hispanic noncitizen. The decline observed for Arizona matches the timing of LAWA's implementation, deviates from the time series for the chosen synthetic control group, and stands out relative to the distribution of placebo estimates for the remainder of states in the nation. Furthermore, we do not observe similar declines for Hispanic naturalized citizens, a group not targeted by the legislation. Our results on LAWA's impact on the housing market provide further support for our findings.illegal, unauthorized, undocumented, immigration, Hispanic, Arizona

Three Essays in Housing Markets

The 2007 collapse of housing price and subsequent recession highlighted the fundamental role housing plays in the economy. Housing is not only one of the largest single expenditures most consumers have but also has a large impact on both local and national economies. In this dissertation I investigate three aspects of the housing market. The first essay shows the role that government policy can have in impacting housing prices and rents through an examination of the Arizona immigration enforcement legislation of 2010. I show that the implementation of the legislation had a negative impact on Arizona\u27s rents and housing prices, resulting in an estimated loss of $40 billion in lost wealth from owner-occupied properties and$13.8 billion in lost rental income. In my second essay I investigate the dynamic relationship between Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) and housing prices. I find that the series are cointegrated and that REITs adjust to changes in their shared cointegrating relationship. I then use this finding to show that the cointegrating residual improves upon one-period ahead out-of-sample forecasts of REIT returns. In my third essay I investigate the role of macroeconomic announcements on high-frequency REIT returns. I use the forecast errors for a AR(1) rolling forecast as proxies for the surprise associated with an announcement. In addition, I use the Quandt-Andrews breakpoint test to determine changes in the announcement effect regimes. I argue that this is better than defining ad hoc regimes based on states of the business cycle when estimating the effect of macroeconomic announcements. The results indicate that macroeconomic announcements do have a real impact on REIT returns, and thus REITs do reflect market fundamentals

Incorporating spatial variation in housing attribute prices: A comparison of geographically weighted regression and the spatial expansion method

Hedonic house price models typically impose a constant price structure on housing characteristics throughout an entire market area. However, there is increasing evidence that the marginal prices of many important attributes vary over space, especially within large markets. In this paper, we compare two approaches to examine spatial heterogeneity in housing attribute prices within the Tucson, Arizona housing market: the spatial expansion method and geographically weighted regression (GWR). Our results provide strong evidence that the marginal price of key housing characteristics varies over space. GWR outperforms the spatial expansion method in terms of explanatory power and predictive accuracy

Increasing the Availability of Affordable Homes: A Handbook of High-Impact State and Local Solutions

Identifies six broad strategies and twenty-two high-impact policies that state and local leaders can employ to increase affordable homes for working families

Faculty Books

Aaron Simowitz, J.D. 2006, reviews Professor Bernard E. Harcourt’s most recent book, Language of the Gun: Youth, Crime, and Public Policy, in an interview with Professor Harcourt. The two discuss Harcourt’s methodology (interviews with juvenile inmates and correspondence analysis) and the conclusions that Harcourt draws from his analysis

Arizona Department of Housing five-year strategic plan

The Arizona Department of Housing provides housing and community revitalization to benefit the people of Arizona by addressing unique and changing housing needs in this state. The Department is working toward sustaining current initiatives and simultaneously maintaining the flexibility to respond to new demands for affordable housing