Robust measurement-based buffer overflow probability estimators for QoS provisioning and traffic anomaly prediction applicationm

Suitable estimators for a class of Large Deviation approximations of rare event probabilities based on sample realizations of random processes have been proposed in our earlier work. These estimators are expressed as non-linear multi-dimensional optimization problems of a special structure. In this paper, we develop an algorithm to solve these optimization problems very efficiently based on their characteristic structure. After discussing the nature of the objective function and constraint set and their peculiarities, we provide a formal proof that the developed algorithm is guaranteed to always converge. The existence of efficient and provably convergent algorithms for solving these problems is a prerequisite for using the proposed estimators in real time problems such as call admission control, adaptive modulation and coding with QoS constraints, and traffic anomaly detection in high data rate communication networks

Robust measurement-based buffer overflow probability estimators for QoS provisioning and traffic anomaly prediction applications

Suitable estimators for a class of Large Deviation approximations of rare event probabilities based on sample realizations of random processes have been proposed in our earlier work. These estimators are expressed as non-linear multi-dimensional optimization problems of a special structure. In this paper, we develop an algorithm to solve these optimization problems very efficiently based on their characteristic structure. After discussing the nature of the objective function and constraint set and their peculiarities, we provide a formal proof that the developed algorithm is guaranteed to always converge. The existence of efficient and provably convergent algorithms for solving these problems is a prerequisite for using the proposed estimators in real time problems such as call admission control, adaptive modulation and coding with QoS constraints, and traffic anomaly detection in high data rate communication networks

Modulated Branching Processes, Origins of Power Laws and Queueing Duality

Power law distributions have been repeatedly observed in a wide variety of socioeconomic, biological and technological areas. In many of the observations, e.g., city populations and sizes of living organisms, the objects of interest evolve due to the replication of their many independent components, e.g., births-deaths of individuals and replications of cells. Furthermore, the rates of the replication are often controlled by exogenous parameters causing periods of expansion and contraction, e.g., baby booms and busts, economic booms and recessions, etc. In addition, the sizes of these objects often have reflective lower boundaries, e.g., cities do not fall bellow a certain size, low income individuals are subsidized by the government, companies are protected by bankruptcy laws, etc. Hence, it is natural to propose reflected modulated branching processes as generic models for many of the preceding observations. Indeed, our main results show that the proposed mathematical models result in power law distributions under quite general polynomial Gartner-Ellis conditions, the generality of which could explain the ubiquitous nature of power law distributions. In addition, on a logarithmic scale, we establish an asymptotic equivalence between the reflected branching processes and the corresponding multiplicative ones. The latter, as recognized by Goldie (1991), is known to be dual to queueing/additive processes. We emphasize this duality further in the generality of stationary and ergodic processes.Comment: 36 pages, 2 figures; added references; a new theorem in Subsection 4.

Dynamic Product Assembly and Inventory Control for Maximum Profit

We consider a manufacturing plant that purchases raw materials for product assembly and then sells the final products to customers. There are M types of raw materials and K types of products, and each product uses a certain subset of raw materials for assembly. The plant operates in slotted time, and every slot it makes decisions about re-stocking materials and pricing the existing products in reaction to (possibly time-varying) material costs and consumer demands. We develop a dynamic purchasing and pricing policy that yields time average profit within epsilon of optimality, for any given epsilon>0, with a worst case storage buffer requirement that is O(1/epsilon). The policy can be implemented easily for large M, K, yields fast convergence times, and is robust to non-ergodic system dynamics.Comment: 32 page

On Coding for Reliable Communication over Packet Networks

We present a capacity-achieving coding scheme for unicast or multicast over lossy packet networks. In the scheme, intermediate nodes perform additional coding yet do not decode nor even wait for a block of packets before sending out coded packets. Rather, whenever they have a transmission opportunity, they send out coded packets formed from random linear combinations of previously received packets. All coding and decoding operations have polynomial complexity. We show that the scheme is capacity-achieving as long as packets received on a link arrive according to a process that has an average rate. Thus, packet losses on a link may exhibit correlation in time or with losses on other links. In the special case of Poisson traffic with i.i.d. losses, we give error exponents that quantify the rate of decay of the probability of error with coding delay. Our analysis of the scheme shows that it is not only capacity-achieving, but that the propagation of packets carrying "innovative" information follows the propagation of jobs through a queueing network, and therefore fluid flow models yield good approximations. We consider networks with both lossy point-to-point and broadcast links, allowing us to model both wireline and wireless packet networks.Comment: 33 pages, 6 figures; revised appendi

Sample path large deviations for queues with many inputs

This paper presents a large deviations principle for the average of real-valued processes indexed by the positive integers, one which is particularly suited to queueing systems with many traffic flows. Examples are given of how it may be applied to standard queues with finite and infinite buffers, to priority queues and to finding most likely paths to overflow