16,241 research outputs found

    The Metaverse: Survey, Trends, Novel Pipeline Ecosystem & Future Directions

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    The Metaverse offers a second world beyond reality, where boundaries are non-existent, and possibilities are endless through engagement and immersive experiences using the virtual reality (VR) technology. Many disciplines can benefit from the advancement of the Metaverse when accurately developed, including the fields of technology, gaming, education, art, and culture. Nevertheless, developing the Metaverse environment to its full potential is an ambiguous task that needs proper guidance and directions. Existing surveys on the Metaverse focus only on a specific aspect and discipline of the Metaverse and lack a holistic view of the entire process. To this end, a more holistic, multi-disciplinary, in-depth, and academic and industry-oriented review is required to provide a thorough study of the Metaverse development pipeline. To address these issues, we present in this survey a novel multi-layered pipeline ecosystem composed of (1) the Metaverse computing, networking, communications and hardware infrastructure, (2) environment digitization, and (3) user interactions. For every layer, we discuss the components that detail the steps of its development. Also, for each of these components, we examine the impact of a set of enabling technologies and empowering domains (e.g., Artificial Intelligence, Security & Privacy, Blockchain, Business, Ethics, and Social) on its advancement. In addition, we explain the importance of these technologies to support decentralization, interoperability, user experiences, interactions, and monetization. Our presented study highlights the existing challenges for each component, followed by research directions and potential solutions. To the best of our knowledge, this survey is the most comprehensive and allows users, scholars, and entrepreneurs to get an in-depth understanding of the Metaverse ecosystem to find their opportunities and potentials for contribution

    Quantifying and Explaining Machine Learning Uncertainty in Predictive Process Monitoring: An Operations Research Perspective

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    This paper introduces a comprehensive, multi-stage machine learning methodology that effectively integrates information systems and artificial intelligence to enhance decision-making processes within the domain of operations research. The proposed framework adeptly addresses common limitations of existing solutions, such as the neglect of data-driven estimation for vital production parameters, exclusive generation of point forecasts without considering model uncertainty, and lacking explanations regarding the sources of such uncertainty. Our approach employs Quantile Regression Forests for generating interval predictions, alongside both local and global variants of SHapley Additive Explanations for the examined predictive process monitoring problem. The practical applicability of the proposed methodology is substantiated through a real-world production planning case study, emphasizing the potential of prescriptive analytics in refining decision-making procedures. This paper accentuates the imperative of addressing these challenges to fully harness the extensive and rich data resources accessible for well-informed decision-making

    Intermodal Terminal Subsystem Technology Selection Using Integrated Fuzzy MCDM Model

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    Intermodal transportation is the use of multiple modes of transportation, which can lead to greater sustainability by reducing environmental impact and trafļ¬c congestion and increasing the efļ¬ciency of supply chains. One of the preconditions for efļ¬cient intermodal transport is the efļ¬cient intermodal terminal (IT). ITs allow for the smooth and efļ¬cient handling of cargo, thus reducing the time, cost, and environmental impact of transportation. Adequate selection of subsystem technologies can signiļ¬cantly improve the efļ¬ciency and productivity of an IT, ultimately leading to cost savings for businesses and a more efļ¬cient and sustainable transportation system. Accordingly, this paper aims to establish a framework for the evaluation and selection of appropriate technologies for IT subsystems. To solve the deļ¬ned problem, an innovative hybrid multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) model, which combines the fuzzy factor relationship (FFARE) and the fuzzy combinative distance-based assessment (FCODAS) methods, is developed in this paper. The FFARE method is used for obtaining criteria weights, while the FCODAS method is used for evaluation and a ļ¬nal ranking of the alternatives. The established framework and the model are tested on a real-life case study, evaluating and selecting the handling technology for a planned IT. The study deļ¬nes 12 potential variants of handling equipment based on their techno-operational characteristics and evaluates them using 16 criteria. The results indicate that the best handling technology variant is the one that uses a rail-mounted gantry crane for trans-shipment and a reach stacker for horizontal transport and storage. The results also point to the conclusion that instead of choosing equipment for each process separately, it is important to think about the combination of different handling technologies that can work together to complete a series of handling cycle processes. The main contributions of this paper are the development of a new hybrid model and the establishment of a framework for the selection of appropriate IT subsystem technologies along with a set of unique criteria for their evaluation and selection

    Multi-Attribute Utility Preference Robust Optimization: A Continuous Piecewise Linear Approximation Approach

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    In this paper, we consider a multi-attribute decision making problem where the decision maker's (DM's) objective is to maximize the expected utility of outcomes but the true utility function which captures the DM's risk preference is ambiguous. We propose a maximin multi-attribute utility preference robust optimization (UPRO) model where the optimal decision is based on the worst-case utility function in an ambiguity set of plausible utility functions constructed using partially available information such as the DM's specific preferences between some lotteries. Specifically, we consider a UPRO model with two attributes, where the DM's risk attitude is multivariate risk-averse and the ambiguity set is defined by a linear system of inequalities represented by the Lebesgue-Stieltjes (LS) integrals of the DM's utility functions. To solve the maximin problem, we propose an explicit piecewise linear approximation (EPLA) scheme to approximate the DM's true unknown utility so that the inner minimization problem reduces to a linear program, and we solve the approximate maximin problem by a derivative-free (Dfree) method. Moreover, by introducing binary variables to locate the position of the reward function in a family of simplices, we propose an implicit piecewise linear approximation (IPLA) representation of the approximate UPRO and solve it using the Dfree method. Such IPLA technique prompts us to reformulate the approximate UPRO as a single mixed-integer program (MIP) and extend the tractability of the approximate UPRO to the multi-attribute case. Furthermore, we extend the model to the expected utility maximization problem with expected utility constraints where the worst-case utility functions in the objective and constraints are considered simultaneously. Finally, we report the numerical results about performances of the proposed models.Comment: 50 pages,18 figure

    Fair Assortment Planning

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    Many online platforms, ranging from online retail stores to social media platforms, employ algorithms to optimize their offered assortment of items (e.g., products and contents). These algorithms tend to prioritize the platforms' short-term goals by solely featuring items with the highest popularity or revenue. However, this practice can then lead to undesirable outcomes for the rest of the items, making them leave the platform, and in turn hurting the platform's long-term goals. Motivated by that, we introduce and study a fair assortment planning problem, which requires any two items with similar quality/merits to be offered similar outcomes. We show that the problem can be formulated as a linear program (LP), called (FAIR), that optimizes over the distribution of all feasible assortments. To find a near-optimal solution to (FAIR), we propose a framework based on the Ellipsoid method, which requires a polynomial-time separation oracle to the dual of the LP. We show that finding an optimal separation oracle to the dual problem is an NP-complete problem, and hence we propose a series of approximate separation oracles, which then result in a 1/21/2-approx. algorithm and a PTAS for the original Problem (FAIR). The approximate separation oracles are designed by (i) showing the separation oracle to the dual of the LP is equivalent to solving an infinite series of parameterized knapsack problems, and (ii) taking advantage of the structure of the parameterized knapsack problems. Finally, we conduct a case study using the MovieLens dataset, which demonstrates the efficacy of our algorithms and further sheds light on the price of fairness.Comment: 86 pages, 7 figure

    A Decision Support System for Economic Viability and Environmental Impact Assessment of Vertical Farms

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    Vertical farming (VF) is the practice of growing crops or animals using the vertical dimension via multi-tier racks or vertically inclined surfaces. In this thesis, I focus on the emerging industry of plant-specific VF. Vertical plant farming (VPF) is a promising and relatively novel practice that can be conducted in buildings with environmental control and artificial lighting. However, the nascent sector has experienced challenges in economic viability, standardisation, and environmental sustainability. Practitioners and academics call for a comprehensive financial analysis of VPF, but efforts are stifled by a lack of valid and available data. A review of economic estimation and horticultural software identifies a need for a decision support system (DSS) that facilitates risk-empowered business planning for vertical farmers. This thesis proposes an open-source DSS framework to evaluate business sustainability through financial risk and environmental impact assessments. Data from the literature, alongside lessons learned from industry practitioners, would be centralised in the proposed DSS using imprecise data techniques. These techniques have been applied in engineering but are seldom used in financial forecasting. This could benefit complex sectors which only have scarce data to predict business viability. To begin the execution of the DSS framework, VPF practitioners were interviewed using a mixed-methods approach. Learnings from over 19 shuttered and operational VPF projects provide insights into the barriers inhibiting scalability and identifying risks to form a risk taxonomy. Labour was the most commonly reported top challenge. Therefore, research was conducted to explore lean principles to improve productivity. A probabilistic model representing a spectrum of variables and their associated uncertainty was built according to the DSS framework to evaluate the financial risk for VF projects. This enabled flexible computation without precise production or financial data to improve economic estimation accuracy. The model assessed two VPF cases (one in the UK and another in Japan), demonstrating the first risk and uncertainty quantification of VPF business models in the literature. The results highlighted measures to improve economic viability and the viability of the UK and Japan case. The environmental impact assessment model was developed, allowing VPF operators to evaluate their carbon footprint compared to traditional agriculture using life-cycle assessment. I explore strategies for net-zero carbon production through sensitivity analysis. Renewable energies, especially solar, geothermal, and tidal power, show promise for reducing the carbon emissions of indoor VPF. Results show that renewably-powered VPF can reduce carbon emissions compared to field-based agriculture when considering the land-use change. The drivers for DSS adoption have been researched, showing a pathway of compliance and design thinking to overcome the ā€˜problem of implementationā€™ and enable commercialisation. Further work is suggested to standardise VF equipment, collect benchmarking data, and characterise risks. This work will reduce risk and uncertainty and accelerate the sectorā€™s emergence

    Mathematical models to evaluate the impact of increasing serotype coverage in pneumococcal conjugate vaccines

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    Of over 100 serotypes of Streptococcus pneumoniae, only 7 were included in the first pneumo- coccal conjugate vaccine (PCV). While PCV reduced the disease incidence, in part because of a herd immunity effect, a replacement effect was observed whereby disease was increasingly caused by serotypes not included in the vaccine. Dynamic transmission models can account for these effects to describe post-vaccination scenarios, whereas economic evaluations can enable decision-makers to compare vaccines of increasing valency for implementation. This thesis has four aims. First, to explore the limitations and assumptions of published pneu- mococcal models and the implications for future vaccine formulation and policy. Second, to conduct a trend analysis assembling all the available evidence for serotype replacement in Europe, North America and Australia to characterise invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) caused by vaccine-type (VT) and non-vaccine-types (NVT) serotypes. The motivation behind this is to assess the patterns of relative abundance in IPD cases pre- and post-vaccination, to examine country-level differences in relation to the vaccines employed over time since introduction, and to assess the growth of the replacement serotypes in comparison with the serotypes targeted by the vaccine. The third aim is to use a Bayesian framework to estimate serotype-specific invasiveness, i.e. the rate of invasive disease given carriage. This is useful for dynamic transmission modelling, as transmission is through carriage but a majority of serotype-specific pneumococcal data lies in active disease surveillance. This is also helpful to address whether serotype replacement reflects serotypes that are more invasive or whether serotypes in a specific location are equally more invasive than in other locations. Finally, the last aim of this thesis is to estimate the epidemiological and economic impact of increas- ing serotype coverage in PCVs using a dynamic transmission model. Together, the results highlight that though there are key parameter uncertainties that merit further exploration, divergence in serotype replacement and inconsistencies in invasiveness on a country-level may make a universal PCV suboptimal.Open Acces

    Predictive Maintenance of Critical Equipment for Floating Liquefied Natural Gas Liquefaction Process

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    Predictive Maintenance of Critical Equipment for Liquefied Natural Gas Liquefaction Process Meeting global energy demand is a massive challenge, especially with the quest of more affinity towards sustainable and cleaner energy. Natural gas is viewed as a bridge fuel to a renewable energy. LNG as a processed form of natural gas is the fastest growing and cleanest form of fossil fuel. Recently, the unprecedented increased in LNG demand, pushes its exploration and processing into offshore as Floating LNG (FLNG). The offshore topsides gas processes and liquefaction has been identified as one of the great challenges of FLNG. Maintaining topside liquefaction process asset such as gas turbine is critical to profitability and reliability, availability of the process facilities. With the setbacks of widely used reactive and preventive time-based maintenances approaches, to meet the optimal reliability and availability requirements of oil and gas operators, this thesis presents a framework driven by AI-based learning approaches for predictive maintenance. The framework is aimed at leveraging the value of condition-based maintenance to minimises the failures and downtimes of critical FLNG equipment (Aeroderivative gas turbine). In this study, gas turbine thermodynamics were introduced, as well as some factors affecting gas turbine modelling. Some important considerations whilst modelling gas turbine system such as modelling objectives, modelling methods, as well as approaches in modelling gas turbines were investigated. These give basis and mathematical background to develop a gas turbine simulated model. The behaviour of simple cycle HDGT was simulated using thermodynamic laws and operational data based on Rowen model. Simulink model is created using experimental data based on Rowenā€™s model, which is aimed at exploring transient behaviour of an industrial gas turbine. The results show the capability of Simulink model in capture nonlinear dynamics of the gas turbine system, although constraint to be applied for further condition monitoring studies, due to lack of some suitable relevant correlated features required by the model. AI-based models were found to perform well in predicting gas turbines failures. These capabilities were investigated by this thesis and validated using an experimental data obtained from gas turbine engine facility. The dynamic behaviours gas turbines changes when exposed to different varieties of fuel. A diagnostics-based AI models were developed to diagnose different gas turbine engineā€™s failures associated with exposure to various types of fuels. The capabilities of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) technique have been harnessed to reduce the dimensionality of the dataset and extract good features for the diagnostics model development. Signal processing-based (time-domain, frequency domain, time-frequency domain) techniques have also been used as feature extraction tools, and significantly added more correlations to the dataset and influences the prediction results obtained. Signal processing played a vital role in extracting good features for the diagnostic models when compared PCA. The overall results obtained from both PCA, and signal processing-based models demonstrated the capabilities of neural network-based models in predicting gas turbineā€™s failures. Further, deep learning-based LSTM model have been developed, which extract features from the time series dataset directly, and hence does not require any feature extraction tool. The LSTM model achieved the highest performance and prediction accuracy, compared to both PCA-based and signal processing-based the models. In summary, it is concluded from this thesis that despite some challenges related to gas turbines Simulink Model for not being integrated fully for gas turbine condition monitoring studies, yet data-driven models have proven strong potentials and excellent performances on gas turbineā€™s CBM diagnostics. The models developed in this thesis can be used for design and manufacturing purposes on gas turbines applied to FLNG, especially on condition monitoring and fault detection of gas turbines. The result obtained would provide valuable understanding and helpful guidance for researchers and practitioners to implement robust predictive maintenance models that will enhance the reliability and availability of FLNG critical equipment.Petroleum Technology Development Funds (PTDF) Nigeri

    Modelling and Solving the Single-Airport Slot Allocation Problem

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    Currently, there are about 200 overly congested airports where airport capacity does not suffice to accommodate airline demand. These airports play a critical role in the global air transport system since they concern 40% of global passenger demand and act as a bottleneck for the entire air transport system. This imbalance between airport capacity and airline demand leads to excessive delays, as well as multi-billion economic, and huge environmental and societal costs. Concurrently, the implementation of airport capacity expansion projects requires time, space and is subject to significant resistance from local communities. As a short to medium-term response, Airport Slot Allocation (ASA) has been used as the main demand management mechanism. The main goal of this thesis is to improve ASA decision-making through the proposition of models and algorithms that provide enhanced ASA decision support. In doing so, this thesis is organised into three distinct chapters that shed light on the following questions (Iā€“V), which remain untapped by the existing literature. In parentheses, we identify the chapters of this thesis that relate to each research question. I. How to improve the modelling of airline demand flexibility and the utility that each airline assigns to each available airport slot? (Chapters 2 and 4) II. How can one model the dynamic and endogenous adaptation of the airportā€™s landside and airside infrastructure to the characteristics of airline demand? (Chapter 2) III. How to consider operational delays in strategic ASA decision-making? (Chapter 3) IV. How to involve the pertinent stakeholders into the ASA decision-making process to select a commonly agreed schedule; and how can one reduce the inherent decision-complexity without compromising the quality and diversity of the schedules presented to the decision-makers? (Chapter 3) V. Given that the ASA process involves airlines (submitting requests for slots) and coordinators (assigning slots to requests based on a set of rules and priorities), how can one jointly consider the interactions between these two sides to improve ASA decision-making? (Chapter 4) With regards to research questions (I) and (II), the thesis proposes a Mixed Integer Programming (MIP) model that considers airlinesā€™ timing flexibility (research question I) and constraints that enable the dynamic and endogenous allocation of the airportā€™s resources (research question II). The proposed modelling variant addresses several additional problem characteristics and policy rules, and considers multiple efficiency objectives, while integrating all constraints that may affect airport slot scheduling decisions, including the asynchronous use of the different airport resources (runway, aprons, passenger terminal) and the endogenous consideration of the capabilities of the airportā€™s infrastructure to adapt to the airline demandā€™s characteristics and the aircraft/flight type associated with each request. The proposed model is integrated into a two-stage solution approach that considers all primary and several secondary policy rules of ASA. New combinatorial results and valid tightening inequalities that facilitate the solution of the problem are proposed and implemented. An extension of the above MIP model that considers the trade-offs among schedule displacement, maximum displacement, and the number of displaced requests, is integrated into a multi-objective solution framework. The proposed framework holistically considers the preferences of all ASA stakeholder groups (research question IV) concerning multiple performance metrics and models the operational delays associated with each airport schedule (research question III). The delays of each schedule/solution are macroscopically estimated, and a subtractive clustering algorithm and a parameter tuning routine reduce the inherent decision complexity by pruning non-dominated solutions without compromising the representativeness of the alternatives offered to the decision-makers (research question IV). Following the determination of the representative set, the expected delay estimates of each schedule are further refined by considering the whole airfieldā€™s operations, the landside, and the airside infrastructure. The representative schedules are ranked based on the preferences of all ASA stakeholder groups concerning each scheduleā€™s displacement-related and operational-delay performance. Finally, in considering the interactions between airlinesā€™ timing flexibility and utility, and the policy-based priorities assigned by the coordinator to each request (research question V), the thesis models the ASA problem as a two-sided matching game and provides guarantees on the stability of the proposed schedules. A Stable Airport Slot Allocation Model (SASAM) capitalises on the flexibility considerations introduced for addressing research question (I) through the exploitation of data submitted by the airlines during the ASA process and provides functions that proxy each requestā€™s value considering both the airlinesā€™ timing flexibility for each submitted request and the requestsā€™ prioritisation by the coordinators when considering the policy rules defining the ASA process. The thesis argues on the compliance of the proposed functions with the primary regulatory requirements of the ASA process and demonstrates their applicability for different types of slot requests. SASAM guarantees stability through sets of inequalities that prune allocations blocking the formation of stable schedules. A multi-objective Deferred-Acceptance (DA) algorithm guaranteeing the stability of each generated schedule is developed. The algorithm can generate all stable non-dominated points by considering the trade-off between the spilled airline and passenger demand and maximum displacement. The work conducted in this thesis addresses several problem characteristics and sheds light on their implications for ASA decision-making, hence having the potential to improve ASA decision-making. Our findings suggest that the consideration of airlinesā€™ timing flexibility (research question I) results in improved capacity utilisation and scheduling efficiency. The endogenous consideration of the ability of the airportā€™s infrastructure to adapt to the characteristics of airline demand (research question II) enables a more efficient representation of airport declared capacity that results in the scheduling of additional requests. The concurrent consideration of airlinesā€™ timing flexibility and the endogenous adaptation of airport resources to airline demand achieves an improved alignment between the airport infrastructure and the characteristics of airline demand, ergo proposing schedules of improved efficiency. The modelling and evaluation of the peak operational delays associated with the different airport schedules (research question III) provides allows the study of the implications of strategic ASA decision-making for operations and quantifies the impact of the airportā€™s declared capacity on each scheduleā€™s operational performance. In considering the preferences of the relevant ASA stakeholders (airlines, coordinators, airport, and air traffic authorities) concerning multiple operational and strategic ASA efficiency metrics (research question IV) the thesis assesses the impact of alternative preference considerations and indicates a commonly preferred schedule that balances the stakeholdersā€™ preferences. The proposition of representative subsets of alternative schedules reduces decision-complexity without significantly compromising the quality of the alternatives offered to the decision-making process (research question IV). The modelling of the ASA as a two-sided matching game (research question V), results in stable schedules consisting of request-to-slot assignments that provide no incentive to airlines and coordinators to reject or alter the proposed timings. Furthermore, the proposition of stable schedules results in more intensive use of airport capacity, while simultaneously improving scheduling efficiency. The models and algorithms developed as part of this thesis are tested using airline requests and airport capacity data from coordinated airports. Computational results that are relevant to the context of the considered airport instances provide evidence on the potential improvements for the current ASA process and facilitate data-driven policy and decision-making. In particular, with regards to the alignment of airline demand with the capabilities of the airportā€™s infrastructure (questions I and II), computational results report improved slot allocation efficiency and airport capacity utilisation, which for the considered airport instance translate to improvements ranging between 5-24% for various schedule performance metrics. In reducing the difficulty associated with the assessment of multiple ASA solutions by the stakeholders (question IV), instance-specific results suggest reductions to the number of alternative schedules by 87%, while maintaining the quality of the solutions presented to the stakeholders above 70% (expressed in relation to the initially considered set of schedules). Meanwhile, computational results suggest that the concurrent consideration of ASA stakeholdersā€™ preferences (research question IV) with regards to both operational (research question III) and strategic performance metrics leads to alternative airport slot scheduling solutions that inform on the trade-offs between the schedulesā€™ operational and strategic performance and the stakeholdersā€™ preferences. Concerning research question (V), the application of SASAM and the DA algorithm suggest improvements to the number of unaccommodated flights and passengers (13 and 40% improvements) at the expense of requests concerning fewer passengers and days of operations (increasing the number of rejected requests by 1.2% in relation to the total number of submitted requests). The research conducted in this thesis aids in the identification of limitations that should be addressed by future studies to further improve ASA decision-making. First, the thesis focuses on exact solution approaches that consider the landside and airside infrastructure of the airport and generate multiple schedules. The proposition of pre-processing techniques that identify the bottleneck of the airportā€™s capacity, i.e., landside and/or airside, can be used to reduce the size of the proposed formulations and improve the required computational times. Meanwhile, the development of multi-objective heuristic algorithms that consider several problem characteristics and generate multiple efficient schedules in reasonable computational times, could extend the capabilities of the models propositioned in this thesis and provide decision support for some of the worldā€™s most congested airports. Furthermore, the thesis models and evaluates the operational implications of strategic airport slot scheduling decisions. The explicit consideration of operational delays as an objective in ASA optimisation models and algorithms is an issue that merits investigation since it may further improve the operational performance of the generated schedules. In accordance with current practice, the models proposed in this work have considered deterministic capacity parameters. Perhaps, future research could propose formulations that consider stochastic representations of airport declared capacity and improve strategic ASA decision-making through the anticipation of operational uncertainty and weather-induced capacity reductions. Finally, in modelling airlinesā€™ utility for each submitted request and available time slot the thesis proposes time-dependent functions that utilise available data to approximate airlinesā€™ scheduling preferences. Future studies wishing to improve the accuracy of the proposed functions could utilise commercial data sources that provide route-specific information; or in cases that such data is unavailable, employ data mining and machine learning methodologies to extract airlinesā€™ time-dependent utility and preferences

    Optimization-based selection of hydrants and valves control in water distribution networks for fire incidents management

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    In England and Wales, water utilities reduce hydraulic pressure to a minimum regulatory threshold in order to reduce leakage and avoid financial penalties. However, utilities are not legally bound to guarantee specific flow rates from fire hydrants, thus posing a risk for firefighting. We formulate a biobjective mixed-integer nonlinear program (MINLP) to simultaneously determine control valve settings and the location of fire hydrants to be utilized in a water distribution network during urban fire incidents. The goal is to provide the required flow rate from the fire hydrants while minimizing 1) the distance of the utilized fire hydrants from the fire location and 2) the impact on customer supply. As the solution is required in real-time, we propose an optimization-based heuristic, which relies on iteratively solving a NLP approximation and relaxation of the MINLP formulation. Furthermore, we assess the quality of the heuristic solutions for the presented study case by calculating global optimality bounds. The proposed heuristic is applied to an operational water distribution network
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