Self-Organizing Time Map: An Abstraction of Temporal Multivariate Patterns

This paper adopts and adapts Kohonen's standard Self-Organizing Map (SOM) for exploratory temporal structure analysis. The Self-Organizing Time Map (SOTM) implements SOM-type learning to one-dimensional arrays for individual time units, preserves the orientation with short-term memory and arranges the arrays in an ascending order of time. The two-dimensional representation of the SOTM attempts thus twofold topology preservation, where the horizontal direction preserves time topology and the vertical direction data topology. This enables discovering the occurrence and exploring the properties of temporal structural changes in data. For representing qualities and properties of SOTMs, we adapt measures and visualizations from the standard SOM paradigm, as well as introduce a measure of temporal structural changes. The functioning of the SOTM, and its visualizations and quality and property measures, are illustrated on artificial toy data. The usefulness of the SOTM in a real-world setting is shown on poverty, welfare and development indicators

Evaluating a Self-Organizing Map for Clustering and Visualizing Optimum Currency Area Criteria

Optimum currency area (OCA) theory attempts to define the geographical region in which it would maximize economic efficiency to have a single currency. In this paper, the focus is on prospective and current members of the Economic and Monetary Union. For this task, a self-organizing neural network, the Self-organizing map (SOM), is combined with hierarchical clustering for a two-level approach to clustering and visualizing OCA criteria. The output of the SOM is a topologically preserved two-dimensional grid. The final models are evaluated based on both clustering tendencies and accuracy measures. Thereafter, the two-dimensional grid of the chosen model is used for visual assessment of the OCA criteria, while its clustering results are projected onto a geographic map.Self-organizing maps, Optimum Currency Area, projection, clustering, geospatial visualization

Forecasting the CATS benchmark with the Double Vector Quantization method

The Double Vector Quantization method, a long-term forecasting method based on the SOM algorithm, has been used to predict the 100 missing values of the CATS competition data set. An analysis of the proposed time series is provided to estimate the dimension of the auto-regressive part of this nonlinear auto-regressive forecasting method. Based on this analysis experimental results using the Double Vector Quantization (DVQ) method are presented and discussed. As one of the features of the DVQ method is its ability to predict scalars as well as vectors of values, the number of iterative predictions needed to reach the prediction horizon is further observed. The method stability for the long term allows obtaining reliable values for a rather long-term forecasting horizon.Comment: Accepted for publication in Neurocomputing, Elsevie

Classification of damage in structural systems using time series analysis and supervised and unsupervised pattern recognition techniques

Peer reviewedPostprin

The application of clustering analysis to international private indebtedness

The main goal of this paper is to apply a combination of statistical and connectionist schemes to examine, via clustering analysis, private indebtedness in different countries. Thirty-nine such experiences are used. The relationship between private debts and some macroeconomic variables are discussed in some detail. The clustering performance is improved by taking advantage of specific properties and capacities of each method. The procedures are also applied to a controlled numerical example.