A new tool for the evaluation of the rehabilitation outcomes in older persons. a machine learning model to predict functional status 1 year ahead

Purpose To date, the assessment of disability in older people is obtained utilizing a Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment (CGA). However, it is often difficult to understand which areas of CGA are most predictive of the disability. The aim of this study is to evaluate the possibility to early predict—1year ahead—the disability level of a patient using machine leaning models. Methods Community-dwelling older people were enrolled in this study. CGA was made at baseline and at 1year follow-up. After collecting input/independent variables (i.e., age, gender, schooling followed, body mass index, information on smoking, polypharmacy, functional status, cognitive performance, depression, nutritional status), we performed two distinct Support Vector Machine models (SVMs) able to predict functional status 1year ahead. To validate the choice of the model, the results achieved with the SVMs were compared with the output produced by simple linear regression models. Results 218 patients (mean age = 78.01; SD = 7.85; male = 39%) were recruited. The combination of the two SVMs is able to achieve a higher prediction accuracy (exceeding 80% instances correctly classified vs 67% instances correctly classified by the combination of the two linear regression models). Furthermore, SVMs are able to classify both the three categories, self sufficiently, disability risk and disability, while linear regression model separates the population only in two groups (self-sufficiency and disability) without identifying the intermediate category (disability risk) which turns out to be the most critical one. Conclusions The development of such a model can contribute to the early detection of patients at risk of self-sufficiency loss

Artificial Intelligence-Based Triage for Patients with Acute Abdominal Pain in emergency Department; a Diagnostic Accuracy Study

Introduction: Artificial intelligence (AI) is the development of computer systems which are capable of doing human intelligence tasks such as decision making and problem solving. AI-based tools have been used for predicting various factors in medicine including risk stratification, diagnosis and choice of treatment. AI can also be of considerable help in emergency departments, especially patients’ triage. Objective: This study was undertaken to evaluate the application of AI in patients presenting with acute abdominal pain to estimate emergency severity index version 4 (ESI-4) score without the estimate of the required resources. Methods: A mixed-model approach was used for predicting the ESI-4 score. Seventy percent of the patient cases were used for training the models and the remaining 30% for testing the accuracy of the models. During the training phase, patients were randomly selected and were given to systems for analysis. The output, which was the level of triage, was compared with the gold standard (emergency medicine physician). During the test phase of the study, another group of randomly selected patients were evaluated by the systems and the results were then compared with the gold standard. Results: Totally, 215 patients who were triaged by the emergency medicine specialist were enrolled in the study. Triage Levels 1 and 5 were omitted due to low number of cases. In triage Level 2, all systems showed fair level of prediction with Neural Network being the highest. In Level 3, all systems again showed fair level of prediction. However, in triage Level 4, decision tree was the only system with fair prediction. Conclusion: The application of AI in triage of patients with acute abdominal pain resulted in a model with acceptable level of accuracy. The model works with optimized number of input variables for quick assessment

A systematic review of the applications of Expert Systems (ES) and machine learning (ML) in clinical urology.

BackgroundTesting a hypothesis for 'factors-outcome effect' is a common quest, but standard statistical regression analysis tools are rendered ineffective by data contaminated with too many noisy variables. Expert Systems (ES) can provide an alternative methodology in analysing data to identify variables with the highest correlation to the outcome. By applying their effective machine learning (ML) abilities, significant research time and costs can be saved. The study aims to systematically review the applications of ES in urological research and their methodological models for effective multi-variate analysis. Their domains, development and validity will be identified.MethodsThe PRISMA methodology was applied to formulate an effective method for data gathering and analysis. This study search included seven most relevant information sources: WEB OF SCIENCE, EMBASE, BIOSIS CITATION INDEX, SCOPUS, PUBMED, Google Scholar and MEDLINE. Eligible articles were included if they applied one of the known ML models for a clear urological research question involving multivariate analysis. Only articles with pertinent research methods in ES models were included. The analysed data included the system model, applications, input/output variables, target user, validation, and outcomes. Both ML models and the variable analysis were comparatively reported for each system.ResultsThe search identified n = 1087 articles from all databases and n = 712 were eligible for examination against inclusion criteria. A total of 168 systems were finally included and systematically analysed demonstrating a recent increase in uptake of ES in academic urology in particular artificial neural networks with 31 systems. Most of the systems were applied in urological oncology (prostate cancer = 15, bladder cancer = 13) where diagnostic, prognostic and survival predictor markers were investigated. Due to the heterogeneity of models and their statistical tests, a meta-analysis was not feasible.ConclusionES utility offers an effective ML potential and their applications in research have demonstrated a valid model for multi-variate analysis. The complexity of their development can challenge their uptake in urological clinics whilst the limitation of the statistical tools in this domain has created a gap for further research studies. Integration of computer scientists in academic units has promoted the use of ES in clinical urological research