VI Workshop on Computational Data Analysis and Numerical Methods: Book of Abstracts

The VI Workshop on Computational Data Analysis and Numerical Methods (WCDANM) is going to be held on June 27-29, 2019, in the Department of Mathematics of the University of Beira Interior (UBI), Covilhã, Portugal and it is a unique opportunity to disseminate scientific research related to the areas of Mathematics in general, with particular relevance to the areas of Computational Data Analysis and Numerical Methods in theoretical and/or practical field, using new techniques, giving especial emphasis to applications in Medicine, Biology, Biotechnology, Engineering, Industry, Environmental Sciences, Finance, Insurance, Management and Administration. The meeting will provide a forum for discussion and debate of ideas with interest to the scientific community in general. With this meeting new scientific collaborations among colleagues, namely new collaborations in Masters and PhD projects are expected. The event is open to the entire scientific community (with or without communication/poster)

Understanding over-indebtedness in Portugal: descriptive and predictive models.

Over-indebtedness is a recurring problem in Portugal. After facing different economic cycles, between financial crises and prosperity periods, Portuguese consumers have been striving to keep their household finances stable and avoid being over-indebted. This project aims to gain insights on over-indebtedness, from different perspectives that range from the social to the economic point of view. It examines over-indebtedness from a psychological and from a data science perspective. In particular, we suggest that the systemic impact of financial crisis in Portugal not only promotes over-indebtedness, but it crafts a specific profile of over-indebted consumers which may be distinguished from other profiles, ranging from the emphasis on lack of self-regulation and careless management of one’s budget to other causal factors such as consumerism, crisis, and unemployment. Given this scenario, this project proposes the use of Machine Learning (ML) for developing descriptive and predictive models, to understand the influencing factors of over-indebtedness on Portuguese consumers and will be used for establishing consumer clusters and guidelines for over-indebtedness regulation and consumer financial empowerment.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Integrable e-lements for Statistics Education

Without doubt modern education in statistics must involve practical, computer-based data analysis but the question arises whether and how computational elements should be integrated into the canon of methodological education. Should the student see and study high-level programming code right at the beginning of his or her studies? Which technology can be presented during class and which computational elements can re-occur (at increasing level of complexity) during the different courses? In this paper we address these questions and discuss where e-techniques have their limits in statistics education.electronic books, hypertext, e-supported teaching, statistical software

Geo-spatial Technology for Landslide Hazard Zonation and Prediction

Similar to other geo hazards, landslides cannot be avoided in mountainous terrain. It is the most common natural hazard in the mountain regions and can result in enormous damage to both property and life every year. Better understanding of the hazard will help people to live in harmony with the pristine nature. Since India has 15% of its land area prone to landslides, preparation of landslide susceptibility zonation (LSZ) maps for these areas is of utmost importance. These susceptibility zonation maps will give the areas that are prone to landslides and the safe areas, which in-turn help the administrators for safer planning and future development activities. There are various methods for the preparation of LSZ maps such as based on Fuzzy logic, Artificial Neural Network, Discriminant Analysis, Direct Mapping, Regression Analysis, Neuro-Fuzzy approach and other techniques. These different approaches apply different rating system and the weights, which are area and factors dependent. Therefore, these weights and ratings play a vital role in the preparation of susceptibility maps using any of the approach. However, one technique that gives very high accuracy in certain might not be applicable to other parts of the world due to change in various factors, weights and ratings. Hence, only one method cannot be suggested to be applied in any other terrain. Therefore, an understanding of these approaches, factors and weights needs to be enhanced so that their execution in Geographic Information System (GIS) environment could give better results and yield actual ground like scenarios for landslide susceptibility mapping. Hence, the available and applicable approaches are discussed in this chapter along with detailed account of the literature survey in the areas of LSZ mapping. Also a case study of Garhwal area where Support Vector Machine (SVM) technique is used for preparing LSZ is also given. These LSZ maps will also be an important input for preparing the risk assessment of LSZ

Responsible research and innovation in science education: insights from evaluating the impact of using digital media and arts-based methods on RRI values

The European Commission policy approach of Responsible Research and Innovation (RRI) is gaining momentum in European research planning and development as a strategy to align scientific and technological progress with socially desirable and acceptable ends. One of the RRI agendas is science education, aiming to foster future generations' acquisition of skills and values needed to engage in society responsibly. To this end, it is argued that RRI-based science education can benefit from more interdisciplinary methods such as those based on arts and digital technologies. However, the evidence existing on the impact of science education activities using digital media and arts-based methods on RRI values remains underexplored. This article comparatively reviews previous evidence on the evaluation of these activities, from primary to higher education, to examine whether and how RRI-related learning outcomes are evaluated and how these activities impact on students' learning. Forty academic publications were selected and its content analysed according to five RRI values: creative and critical thinking, engagement, inclusiveness, gender equality and integration of ethical issues. When evaluating the impact of digital and arts-based methods in science education activities, creative and critical thinking, engagement and partly inclusiveness are the RRI values mainly addressed. In contrast, gender equality and ethics integration are neglected. Digital-based methods seem to be more focused on students' questioning and inquiry skills, whereas those using arts often examine imagination, curiosity and autonomy. Differences in the evaluation focus between studies on digital media and those on arts partly explain differences in their impact on RRI values, but also result in non-documented outcomes and undermine their potential. Further developments in interdisciplinary approaches to science education following the RRI policy agenda should reinforce the design of the activities as well as procedural aspects of the evaluation research

Overcoming over–indebtedness with AI - A case study on the application of AutoML to research

Dissertation presented as the partial requirement for obtaining a Master's degree in Data Science and Advanced AnalyticsThis research examines how artificial intelligence may contribute to better understanding and overcoming over-indebtedness in contexts of high poverty risk. This study uses a field database of 1,654 over-indebted households to identify distinguishable clusters and to predict its risk factors. First, unsupervised machine learning generated three overindebtedness clusters: low-income (31.27%), low credit control (37.40%), and crisis-affected households (31.33%). These served as basis for a better understanding on the complex issue that is over-indebtedness. Second, a predictive model was developed to serve as a tool for policymakers and advisory services by streamlining the classification of overindebtedness profiles. On building such model, an AutoML approach was leveraged achieving performant results (92.1% accuracy score). Furthermore, within the AutoML framework, two techniques were employed, leading to a deeper discussion on the benefits and inner workings of such strategy. Ultimately, this research looks to contribute on three fronts: theoretical, by unfolding previously unexplored characteristics on the concept of over-indebtedness; methodological, by proposing AutoML as a powerful research tool accessible to investigators on many backgrounds; and social, by building real-world applications that aim at mitigating over-indebtedness and, consequently, poverty risk

Equity Forecast: Predicting Long Term Stock Price Movement using Machine Learning

Abstract. Long term investment is one of the major investment strategies. However, calculating intrinsic value of some company and evaluating shares for long term investment is not easy, since analyst have to care about a large number of financial indicators and evaluate them in a right manner. So far, little help in predicting the direction of the company value over the longer period of time has been provided from the machines. In this paper we present a machine learning aided approach to evaluate the equity’s future price over the long time. Our method is able to correctly predict whether some company’s value will be 10% higher or not over the period of one year in 76.5% of cases.Keywords. Machine learning, Long term investment, Equity, Stock price prediction.JEL. H54, D92, E20