22 research outputs found
Path storage in the particle filter
This article considers the problem of storing the paths generated by a
particle filter and more generally by a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm. It
provides a theoretical result bounding the expected memory cost by where is the time horizon, is the number of particles and
is a constant, as well as an efficient algorithm to realise this. The
theoretical result and the algorithm are illustrated with numerical
experiments.Comment: 9 pages, 5 figures. To appear in Statistics and Computin
Sequential Bayesian inference for implicit hidden Markov models and current limitations
Hidden Markov models can describe time series arising in various fields of
science, by treating the data as noisy measurements of an arbitrarily complex
Markov process. Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods have become standard tools
to estimate the hidden Markov process given the observations and a fixed
parameter value. We review some of the recent developments allowing the
inclusion of parameter uncertainty as well as model uncertainty. The
shortcomings of the currently available methodology are emphasised from an
algorithmic complexity perspective. The statistical objects of interest for
time series analysis are illustrated on a toy "Lotka-Volterra" model used in
population ecology. Some open challenges are discussed regarding the
scalability of the reviewed methodology to longer time series,
higher-dimensional state spaces and more flexible models.Comment: Review article written for ESAIM: proceedings and surveys. 25 pages,
10 figure
Particle Gibbs with Ancestor Sampling
Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC) is a systematic way of combining
the two main tools used for Monte Carlo statistical inference: sequential Monte
Carlo (SMC) and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). We present a novel PMCMC
algorithm that we refer to as particle Gibbs with ancestor sampling (PGAS).
PGAS provides the data analyst with an off-the-shelf class of Markov kernels
that can be used to simulate the typically high-dimensional and highly
autocorrelated state trajectory in a state-space model. The ancestor sampling
procedure enables fast mixing of the PGAS kernel even when using seemingly few
particles in the underlying SMC sampler. This is important as it can
significantly reduce the computational burden that is typically associated with
using SMC. PGAS is conceptually similar to the existing PG with backward
simulation (PGBS) procedure. Instead of using separate forward and backward
sweeps as in PGBS, however, we achieve the same effect in a single forward
sweep. This makes PGAS well suited for addressing inference problems not only
in state-space models, but also in models with more complex dependencies, such
as non-Markovian, Bayesian nonparametric, and general probabilistic graphical
models