An ARIMA birth number per month model for Albanian population

Population projection models play a significant role in analyzing currentdemographic processes, as well as in forecasting their future development. In this study,we examine the number of birth per month, over the twenty-four year period 1985-2008in Albania. We use data from INSTAT Albania official site. From a careful observationof the data, we see that there are months where the number of births is clearly higher, aswell as others, where it seems to be lower. A decreasing trend is also evident. In ourstudy, we use the Box-Jenkins methodology and R software as a programming languageto consider process seasonal patterns. We model data by an ARIMA (p, d, q) stochasticprocess and we use it to forecast the number of births in Albania on the future. The modelcan be useful for governmental or nongovernmental agencies as well as insurancescompanies interested on birth number evolution in Albania

PhyloNet: a software package for analyzing and reconstructing reticulate evolutionary relationships

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Phylogenies, i.e., the evolutionary histories of groups of taxa, play a major role in representing the interrelationships among biological entities. Many software tools for reconstructing and evaluating such phylogenies have been proposed, almost all of which assume the underlying evolutionary history to be a tree. While trees give a satisfactory first-order approximation for many families of organisms, other families exhibit evolutionary mechanisms that cannot be represented by trees. Processes such as horizontal gene transfer (HGT), hybrid speciation, and interspecific recombination, collectively referred to as <it>reticulate evolutionary events</it>, result in <it>networks</it>, rather than trees, of relationships. Various software tools have been recently developed to analyze reticulate evolutionary relationships, which include SplitsTree4, LatTrans, EEEP, HorizStory, and T-REX.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In this paper, we report on the PhyloNet software package, which is a suite of tools for analyzing reticulate evolutionary relationships, or <it>evolutionary networks</it>, which are rooted, directed, acyclic graphs, leaf-labeled by a set of taxa. These tools can be classified into four categories: (1) evolutionary network representation: reading/writing evolutionary networks in a newly devised compact form; (2) evolutionary network characterization: analyzing evolutionary networks in terms of three basic building blocks – trees, clusters, and tripartitions; (3) evolutionary network comparison: comparing two evolutionary networks in terms of topological dissimilarities, as well as fitness to sequence evolution under a maximum parsimony criterion; and (4) evolutionary network reconstruction: reconstructing an evolutionary network from a species tree and a set of gene trees.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The software package, PhyloNet, offers an array of utilities to allow for efficient and accurate analysis of evolutionary networks. The software package will help significantly in analyzing large data sets, as well as in studying the performance of evolutionary network reconstruction methods. Further, the software package supports the proposed eNewick format for compact representation of evolutionary networks, a feature that allows for efficient interoperability of evolutionary network software tools. Currently, all utilities in PhyloNet are invoked on the command line.</p

Simulation Models for Analyzing the Dynamic Costs of Process-aware Information Systems

Introducing process-aware information systems (PAIS) in enterprises (e.g., workflow management systems, case handling systems) is associated with high costs. Though cost estimation has received considerable attention in software engineering for many years, it is difficult to apply existing approaches to PAIS. This difficulty particularly stems from the inability of existing estimation techniques to deal with the complex interplay of the many technological, organizational and project-driven factors which emerge in the context of PAIS. In response to this problem, this paper proposes an approach which utilizes simulation models for investigating the dynamic costs of PAIS engineering projects. We motivate the need for simulation, discuss the development and execution of simulation models, and give an illustrating example. The present work has been accomplished in the EcoPOST project, which deals with the development of a comprehensive evaluation framework for analyzing PAIS engineering projects from a value-based perspective

Exploring Maintainability Assurance Research for Service- and Microservice-Based Systems: Directions and Differences

To ensure sustainable software maintenance and evolution, a diverse set of activities and concepts like metrics, change impact analysis, or antipattern detection can be used. Special maintainability assurance techniques have been proposed for service- and microservice-based systems, but it is difficult to get a comprehensive overview of this publication landscape. We therefore conducted a systematic literature review (SLR) to collect and categorize maintainability assurance approaches for service-oriented architecture (SOA) and microservices. Our search strategy led to the selection of 223 primary studies from 2007 to 2018 which we categorized with a threefold taxonomy: a) architectural (SOA, microservices, both), b) methodical (method or contribution of the study), and c) thematic (maintainability assurance subfield). We discuss the distribution among these categories and present different research directions as well as exemplary studies per thematic category. The primary finding of our SLR is that, while very few approaches have been suggested for microservices so far (24 of 223, ?11%), we identified several thematic categories where existing SOA techniques could be adapted for the maintainability assurance of microservices

Mapping Big Data into Knowledge Space with Cognitive Cyber-Infrastructure

Big data research has attracted great attention in science, technology, industry and society. It is developing with the evolving scientific paradigm, the fourth industrial revolution, and the transformational innovation of technologies. However, its nature and fundamental challenge have not been recognized, and its own methodology has not been formed. This paper explores and answers the following questions: What is big data? What are the basic methods for representing, managing and analyzing big data? What is the relationship between big data and knowledge? Can we find a mapping from big data into knowledge space? What kind of infrastructure is required to support not only big data management and analysis but also knowledge discovery, sharing and management? What is the relationship between big data and science paradigm? What is the nature and fundamental challenge of big data computing? A multi-dimensional perspective is presented toward a methodology of big data computing.Comment: 59 page

On Modeling and Analyzing Cost Factors in Information Systems Engineering

Introducing enterprise information systems (EIS) is usually associated with high costs. It is therefore crucial to understand those factors that determine or influence these costs. Though software cost estimation has received considerable attention during the last decades, it is difficult to apply existing approaches to EIS. This difficulty particularly stems from the inability of these methods to deal with the dynamic interactions of the many technological, organizational and projectdriven cost factors which specifically arise in the context of EIS. Picking up this problem, we introduce the EcoPOST framework to investigate the complex cost structures of EIS engineering projects through qualitative cost evaluation models. This paper extends previously described concepts and introduces design rules and guidelines for cost evaluation models in order to enhance the development of meaningful and useful EcoPOST cost evaluation models. A case study illustrates the benefits of our approach. Most important, our EcoPOST framework is an important tool supporting EIS engineers in gaining a better understanding of the critical factors determining the costs of EIS engineering projects

Grand Challenges of Traceability: The Next Ten Years

In 2007, the software and systems traceability community met at the first Natural Bridge symposium on the Grand Challenges of Traceability to establish and address research goals for achieving effective, trustworthy, and ubiquitous traceability. Ten years later, in 2017, the community came together to evaluate a decade of progress towards achieving these goals. These proceedings document some of that progress. They include a series of short position papers, representing current work in the community organized across four process axes of traceability practice. The sessions covered topics from Trace Strategizing, Trace Link Creation and Evolution, Trace Link Usage, real-world applications of Traceability, and Traceability Datasets and benchmarks. Two breakout groups focused on the importance of creating and sharing traceability datasets within the research community, and discussed challenges related to the adoption of tracing techniques in industrial practice. Members of the research community are engaged in many active, ongoing, and impactful research projects. Our hope is that ten years from now we will be able to look back at a productive decade of research and claim that we have achieved the overarching Grand Challenge of Traceability, which seeks for traceability to be always present, built into the engineering process, and for it to have "effectively disappeared without a trace". We hope that others will see the potential that traceability has for empowering software and systems engineers to develop higher-quality products at increasing levels of complexity and scale, and that they will join the active community of Software and Systems traceability researchers as we move forward into the next decade of research