Process Analysis for Material Flow Systems

This paper describes a generic approach for analysis of internal behavior of logistic systems based on event logs. The approach is demonstrated by an example of event data from the simulation model of an automated material handling system (MHS) in a manufacturing company. The purpose of the analysis is the identification of design and operation problems and their causes, prospectively. As a result, the simulation model developer obtains the condensed and ranked information on events. These events describe the internal system behavior with anomalies pointing at either possible problems or capacity reserves

Modeling The Intensity Function Of Point Process Via Recurrent Neural Networks

Event sequence, asynchronously generated with random timestamp, is ubiquitous among applications. The precise and arbitrary timestamp can carry important clues about the underlying dynamics, and has lent the event data fundamentally different from the time-series whereby series is indexed with fixed and equal time interval. One expressive mathematical tool for modeling event is point process. The intensity functions of many point processes involve two components: the background and the effect by the history. Due to its inherent spontaneousness, the background can be treated as a time series while the other need to handle the history events. In this paper, we model the background by a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) with its units aligned with time series indexes while the history effect is modeled by another RNN whose units are aligned with asynchronous events to capture the long-range dynamics. The whole model with event type and timestamp prediction output layers can be trained end-to-end. Our approach takes an RNN perspective to point process, and models its background and history effect. For utility, our method allows a black-box treatment for modeling the intensity which is often a pre-defined parametric form in point processes. Meanwhile end-to-end training opens the venue for reusing existing rich techniques in deep network for point process modeling. We apply our model to the predictive maintenance problem using a log dataset by more than 1000 ATMs from a global bank headquartered in North America.Comment: Accepted at Thirty-First AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI17

Predictive Monitoring of Business Processes

Modern information systems that support complex business processes generally maintain significant amounts of process execution data, particularly records of events corresponding to the execution of activities (event logs). In this paper, we present an approach to analyze such event logs in order to predictively monitor business goals during business process execution. At any point during an execution of a process, the user can define business goals in the form of linear temporal logic rules. When an activity is being executed, the framework identifies input data values that are more (or less) likely to lead to the achievement of each business goal. Unlike reactive compliance monitoring approaches that detect violations only after they have occurred, our predictive monitoring approach provides early advice so that users can steer ongoing process executions towards the achievement of business goals. In other words, violations are predicted (and potentially prevented) rather than merely detected. The approach has been implemented in the ProM process mining toolset and validated on a real-life log pertaining to the treatment of cancer patients in a large hospital

A Cognitive Framework to Secure Smart Cities

The advancement in technology has transformed Cyber Physical Systems and their interface with IoT into a more sophisticated and challenging paradigm. As a result, vulnerabilities and potential attacks manifest themselves considerably more than before, forcing researchers to rethink the conventional strategies that are currently in place to secure such physical systems. This manuscript studies the complex interweaving of sensor networks and physical systems and suggests a foundational innovation in the field. In sharp contrast with the existing IDS and IPS solutions, in this paper, a preventive and proactive method is employed to stay ahead of attacks by constantly monitoring network data patterns and identifying threats that are imminent. Here, by capitalizing on the significant progress in processing power (e.g. petascale computing) and storage capacity of computer systems, we propose a deep learning approach to predict and identify various security breaches that are about to occur. The learning process takes place by collecting a large number of files of different types and running tests on them to classify them as benign or malicious. The prediction model obtained as such can then be used to identify attacks. Our project articulates a new framework for interactions between physical systems and sensor networks, where malicious packets are repeatedly learned over time while the system continually operates with respect to imperfect security mechanisms

Deep Recurrent Survival Analysis

Survival analysis is a hotspot in statistical research for modeling time-to-event information with data censorship handling, which has been widely used in many applications such as clinical research, information system and other fields with survivorship bias. Many works have been proposed for survival analysis ranging from traditional statistic methods to machine learning models. However, the existing methodologies either utilize counting-based statistics on the segmented data, or have a pre-assumption on the event probability distribution w.r.t. time. Moreover, few works consider sequential patterns within the feature space. In this paper, we propose a Deep Recurrent Survival Analysis model which combines deep learning for conditional probability prediction at fine-grained level of the data, and survival analysis for tackling the censorship. By capturing the time dependency through modeling the conditional probability of the event for each sample, our method predicts the likelihood of the true event occurrence and estimates the survival rate over time, i.e., the probability of the non-occurrence of the event, for the censored data. Meanwhile, without assuming any specific form of the event probability distribution, our model shows great advantages over the previous works on fitting various sophisticated data distributions. In the experiments on the three real-world tasks from different fields, our model significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art solutions under various metrics.Comment: AAAI 2019. Supplemental material, slides, code: https://github.com/rk2900/drs

On the Relation Between Mobile Encounters and Web Traffic Patterns: A Data-driven Study

Mobility and network traffic have been traditionally studied separately. Their interaction is vital for generations of future mobile services and effective caching, but has not been studied in depth with real-world big data. In this paper, we characterize mobility encounters and study the correlation between encounters and web traffic profiles using large-scale datasets (30TB in size) of WiFi and NetFlow traces. The analysis quantifies these correlations for the first time, across spatio-temporal dimensions, for device types grouped into on-the-go Flutes and sit-to-use Cellos. The results consistently show a clear relation between mobility encounters and traffic across different buildings over multiple days, with encountered pairs showing higher traffic similarity than non-encountered pairs, and long encounters being associated with the highest similarity. We also investigate the feasibility of learning encounters through web traffic profiles, with implications for dissemination protocols, and contact tracing. This provides a compelling case to integrate both mobility and web traffic dimensions in future models, not only at an individual level, but also at pairwise and collective levels. We have released samples of code and data used in this study on GitHub, to support reproducibility and encourage further research (https://github.com/BabakAp/encounter-traffic).Comment: Technical report with details for conference paper at MSWiM 2018, v3 adds GitHub lin