Do Exchange Rate Regimes Matter For Inflation And Exchange Rate Dynamics? The Case Of Central America.

This paper makes an empirical contribution to the discussion on the optimal exchange rate regime. Using as astudy case the experience of the Central American countries, we compare the dynamics of the Real Exchange Rate (RER) and inflation persistence between dollarized economies and countries with some degree of exchange rate flexibility. Our results show that the two dollarized countries in the region, El Salvador and Panama, are quite different in terms of RER and inflation dynamics. While in El Salvador the RER spends more time away from the equilibrium level than the non-dollarized countries in the region, the opposite is true for Panama. We also find that inflation persistence in El Salvador is similar to that of the other countries, but smaller in Panama. This leads us to the conclusion that some degree of exchange rate flexibility helps countries to have a RER more aligned with its fundamentals. Nevertheless, a long-lived, highly credible dollarized economy, like Panama, can reduce inflation persistence to such an extent that RER misalignments are actually less frequent than in countries with more flexible exchange rate regimes.

Money Rules For The Eurozone Candidate Countries

This study proposes the adoption of money growth rules as indicator variables of monetary policies by the countries converging to a common currency system, in particular, by the eurozone candidate countries. The analytical framework assumes an inflation target as the ultimate policy goal. The converging countries act in essence as “takers” of the inflation target, which, in this case, is the eurozone’s inflation forecast. The study advances a forward-looking money growth model that might be applied to aid monetary convergence to the eurozone. However, feasibility of adopting money growth rules depends on stable relationships between money and target variables, which are low inflation and stable exchange rate. Long-run interactions between these variables are examined for Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic by employing a Johansen cointegration test, along with short-run effects assessed with a vector error correction procedure.common currency system, eurozone, monetary convergence, money growth rules, inflation targeting.

A novel defense mechanism against web crawler intrusion

Web robots also known as crawlers or spiders are used by search engines, hackers and spammers to gather information about web pages. Timely detection and prevention of unwanted crawlers increases privacy and security of websites. In this research, a novel method to identify web crawlers is proposed to prevent unwanted crawler to access websites. The proposed method suggests a five-factor identification process to detect unwanted crawlers. This study provides the pretest and posttest results along with a systematic evaluation of web pages with the proposed identification technique versus web pages without the proposed identification process. An experiment was performed with repeated measures for two groups with each group containing ninety web pages. The outputs of the logistic regression analysis of treatment and control groups confirm the novel five-factor identification process as an effective mechanism to prevent unwanted web crawlers. This study concluded that the proposed five distinct identifier process is a very effective technique as demonstrated by a successful outcome

The relation between rhythm processing and cognitive abilities during child development: The role of prediction

Rhythm and meter are central elements of music. From the very beginning, children are responsive to rhythms and acquire increasingly complex rhythmic skills over the course of development. Previous research has shown that the processing of musical rhythm is not only related to children’s music-specific responses but also to their cognitive abilities outside the domain of music. However, despite a lot of research on that topic, the connections and underlying mechanisms involved in such relation are still unclear in some respects. In this article, we aim at analyzing the relation between rhythmic and cognitive-motor abilities during childhood and at providing a new hypothesis about this relation. We consider whether predictive processing may be involved in the relation between rhythmic and various cognitive abilities and hypothesize that prediction as a cross-domain process is a central mechanism building a bridge between rhythm processing and cognitive-motor abilities. Further empirical studies focusing on rhythm processing and cognitive-motor abilities are needed to precisely investigate the links between rhythmic, predictive, and cognitive processes

Do we dance because we walk? The impact of regular vestibular experience on the early development of beat production and perception

Movement to music is a universal human behaviour (Savage, Brown, Sakai & Currie, 2015). Whilst the strong link between music and movement is clearly bidirectional, the origins are not clear. Studying the emergence of rhythmic skills through infancy provides a window into the perceptual and physical attributes, experience, and contexts necessary, to attain the basics of human musicality. This thesis asks whether the human experience of bipedal locomotion, as a primary source of regular vestibular information, is crucial for sensorimotor synchronisation (SMS), spontaneous motor tempo (SMT), and impacts rhythm perception. The first experiment evidences the emergence of tempo-flexibility when moving to music between 10- and 18-months-of-age. The following study is the first to show that experience of locomotion, including from infant carrying, predicts the temporal matching of infant movement to music. Curious if carrying practices influence the very rhythms that we naturally produce, a large-scale correlational study finds infant SMT is predicted by parent height, but not infant’s own body size, such that infants with taller caregivers show a slower SMT than those with shorter caregivers. We contend that this reflects infant experience of being carried by their caregiver. The fourth experiment confirms that experience of being carried at a novel tempo can alter the rhythms infant spontaneously produce. Finally, we asked how information from being carried during locomotion might be changing rhythm perception; specifically, if infants show greater activation of their sensorimotor system when hearing rhythms that match the tempo at which they were carried. Combined, these studies present a highly original piece of research into the ways in which early experiences of locomotion may impact fundamental musical skill

Sources of inflation and output fluctuations in Poland and Hungary: Implications for full membership in the European Union

This paper examines the sources of fluctuations in inflation and output in two leading transitioneconomy candidates for admission to the European Union (EU), Poland and Hungary. Using a rational expectations, dynamic open economy aggregate supply- aggregate demand model, we consider real oil price, supply, balance of payments, demand, and monetary disturbances incorporating important features of transition economies such as balance of payments disturbances and finite capital mobility. Evidence indicates that supply shocks explain a sizable portion of price level movements in Hungary while demand shocks are dominant in price level movements in Poland. Monetary shocks are an important source of output fluctuations in the short run in Hungary suggesting nominal inertia. In Poland, real demand shocks affect output in the short run (up to one year), while monetary shocks are negligible. Estimates of “core inflation” based on historical realizations of the shocks suggest that a major component of inflation has been demand driven, “core” inflation. Finally, policy implications of these findings regarding EU membership are evaluated. --Business Cycles,Inflation,Transition Economies,Time Series Models

Infants’ relationship with drop-offs and water environments

Underpinned by the ecological approach to perceptual-motor development, this Thesis aims to contribute to the understanding of the organization of infants’ behaviour during encounters with drop-offs and water environments. Previous studies have linked locomotor experience to infants’ avoidance of falling from heights. Using the Real Cliff / Water Cliff apparatus, Burnay and Cordovil (2016) confirmed the effect of locomotor experience on crawlers’ avoidance of drop-offs and linked locomotor experience to infants’ avoidance of falling into the water for the first time. However, the effect of other specific locomotor experiences on infants’ approach to aquatic environments has not been addressed. This Thesis investigated the effect of specific locomotor experiences and the transition from skilled crawling to novice walking on infants’ behaviour when they encounter real cliffs and two different ways to access the water: a cliff and a slope. Using a cross-sectional design, Study One examined the effect of specific locomotor experiences on 102 infants’ (58 crawlers, 44 walkers) avoidance of falling from a real and a water cliff (tank of water attached to the edge of a drop-off). Crawling and total self-produced locomotor experiences were associated with crawling and walking infants’ behaviour. No association between walking experience and walking infants’ avoidance behaviour was found. Study Two examined 25 infants’ behaviour on the real and the water cliff in a longitudinal design. Infants were tested as experienced crawlers, new walkers and again as experienced walkers. The majority of infants avoided equally or more consistently when tested as new walkers than as experienced crawlers and even more consistently when tested as experienced walkers. Combining results from Study One and Two indicates that some degree of what infants learn through crawling experience about navigating drop-offs transfers to a new walking locomotor pattern. For new walkers, adaptive behaviour requires a recalibration process, and a longer duration of crawling experience facilitates this process. To investigate if perceptual-motor development influences infants’ avoidance of submersion when a sloped entrance to the water is offered in the same way it does when a drop-off is presented, Study Three examined 77 infants’ (43 crawlers, 34 walkers) avoidance of submersion on a 10⁰ sloped surface leading to deep water. No association between infants’ avoidance of submersion and locomotor experiences was found. Comparison with the results of Study One revealed that the proportion of infants that reached submersion on the slope was greater than the proportion of infants that fell into the water cliff. With self-produced locomotor experience, infants become attuned to relevant perceptual information about threats posed by cliffs (filled with water or not) but locomotor experience does not teach them to perceive water as unsafe when it can be approached via a sloped pathway. Outcomes of this Thesis can be applied to educate caregivers about sensitive periodswhen infants are more susceptible to engage in behaviour that heightens drowning risk and to inform them about the potential increased drowning risk posed by swimming pools with sloping access