Analyzing helicopter evasive maneuver effectiveness against rocket-propelled grenades

It has long been acknowledged that military helicopters are vulnerable to ground-launched threats, in particular, the RPG-7 rocket-propelled grenade. Current helicopter threat mitigation strategies rely on a combination of operational tactics and selectively placed armor plating, which can help to mitigate but not entirely remove the threat. However, in recent years, a number of active protection systems designed to protect land-based vehicles from rocket and missile fire have been developed. These systems all use a sensor suite to detect, track, and predict the threat trajectory, which is then employed in the computation of an intercept trajectory for a defensive kill mechanism. Although a complete active protection system in its current form is unsuitable for helicopters, in this paper, it is assumed that the active protection system’s track and threat trajectory prediction subsystem could be used offline as a tool to develop tactics and techniques to counter the threat from rocket-propelled grenade attacks. It is further proposed that such a maneuver can be found by solving a pursuit–evasion differential game. Because the first stage in solving this problem is developing the capability to evaluate the game, nonlinear dynamic and spatial models for a helicopter, RPG-7 round, and gunner, and evasion strategies were developed and integrated into a new simulation engine. Analysis of the results from representative vignettes demonstrates that the simulation yields the value of the engagement pursuit–evasion game. It is also shown that, in the majority of cases, survivability can be significantly improved by performing an appropriate evasive maneuver. Consequently, this simulation may be used as an important tool for both designing and evaluating evasive tactics and is the first step in designing a maneuver-based active protection system, leading to improved rotorcraft survivability

Dependability analysis and recovery support for smart grids

The increasing scale and complexity of power grids exacerbate concerns about failure propagation. A single contingency, such as outage of a transmission line due to overload or weather-related damage, can cause cascading failures that manifest as blackouts. One objective of smart grids is to reduce the likelihood of cascading failure through the use of power electronics devices that can prevent, isolate, and mitigate the effects of faults. Given that these devices are themselves prone to failure, we seek to quantify the effects of their use on dependability attributes of smart grid. This thesis articulates analytical methods for analyzing two dependability attributes - reliability and survivability - and proposes a recovery strategy that limits service degradation. Reliability captures the probability of system-level failure; Survivability describes degraded operation in the presence of a fault. System condition and service capacity are selected as measures of degradation. Both reliability and survivability are evaluated using N-1 contingency analysis. Importance analysis is used to determine a recovery strategy that maintains the highest survivability in the course of the recovery process. The proposed methods are illustrated by application to the IEEE 9-bus test system, a simple model system that allows for clear articulation of the process. Simulation is used to capture the effect of faults in both physical components of the power grid and the cyber infrastructure that differentiates it as a smart grid --Abstract, page iii

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Impact of marine power system architectures on IFEP vessel availability and survivability

In recent years integrated full electric propulsion (IFEP) has become a popular power system concept within the marine community, both for the naval and the commercial community. In this paper the authors discuss the need for a detailed investigation into the impact of different IFEP power system architectures on the availability of power and hence on the survivability of the vessel. The power system architectures considered here could relate to either a commercial or a naval vessel and include radial, ring and hybrid AC/DC arrangements. Comparative fault studies of the architectures were carried out in an attempt to make valuable observations on the survivability of a vessel. Simulation results demonstrate that the ring and hybrid AC/DC architectural contribute to a higher survivability than the radial architecture. However, there are still challenges that need to be addressed and therefore potential solutions such as fault current limiters will be considered

Quantitative modeling of reliability and survivability for cyber-physical power systems

Critical infrastructure systems are increasingly reliant on cyber infrastructure that enables intelligent real-time control of physical components. This cyber infrastructure utilizes environmental and operational data to provide decision support intended to increase the efficacy and reliability of the system and facilitate mitigation of failure. Realistic imperfections, such as corrupt sensor data, software errors, or failed communication links can cause failure in a functional physical infrastructure, defying the purpose of intelligent control. As such, justifiable reliance on cyber-physical critical infrastructure is contingent on rigorous investigation of the effect of intelligent control, including modeling and simulation of failure propagation within the cyber-physical infrastructure. To this end, this thesis investigates the reliability and survivability of a cyber-physical power grid based on the IEEE 9-bus test system. The research contributions include quantitative modeling of both non-functional attributes, based on data from N-1 contingency analysis that considers failures in physical and cyber components of the system. The resulting survivability model is utilized in determining the importance of each transmission line. The final research contribution is identification of optimal recovery strategies for the system, where the objective is to maintain the highest possible survivability in the course of recovery. --Abstract, page iii

Improving rotorcraft survivability to RPG attack using inverse methods

This paper presents the results of a preliminary investigation of optimal threat evasion strategies for improving the survivability of rotorcraft under attack by rocket propelled grenades (RPGs). The basis of this approach is the application of inverse simulation techniques pioneered for simulation of aggressive helicopter manoeuvres to the RPG engagement problem. In this research, improvements in survivability are achieved by computing effective evasive manoeuvres. The first step in this process uses the missile approach warning system camera (MAWS) on the aircraft to provide angular information of the threat. Estimates of the RPG trajectory and impact point are then estimated. For the current flight state an appropriate evasion response is selected then realised via inverse simulation of the platform dynamics. Results are presented for several representative engagements showing the efficacy of the approach

Survivability of Deterministic Dynamical Systems

The notion of a part of phase space containing desired (or allowed) states of a dynamical system is important in a wide range of complex systems research. It has been called the safe operating space, the viability kernel or the sunny region. In this paper we define the notion of survivability: Given a random initial condition, what is the likelihood that the transient behaviour of a deterministic system does not leave a region of desirable states. We demonstrate the utility of this novel stability measure by considering models from climate science, neuronal networks and power grids. We also show that a semi-analytic lower bound for the survivability of linear systems allows a numerically very efficient survivability analysis in realistic models of power grids. Our numerical and semi-analytic work underlines that the type of stability measured by survivability is not captured by common asymptotic stability measures.Comment: 21 pages, 6 figure