Wind Power Forecasting Methods Based on Deep Learning: A Survey

Accurate wind power forecasting in wind farm can effectively reduce the enormous impact on grid operation safety when high permeability intermittent power supply is connected to the power grid. Aiming to provide reference strategies for relevant researchers as well as practical applications, this paper attempts to provide the literature investigation and methods analysis of deep learning, enforcement learning and transfer learning in wind speed and wind power forecasting modeling. Usually, wind speed and wind power forecasting around a wind farm requires the calculation of the next moment of the definite state, which is usually achieved based on the state of the atmosphere that encompasses nearby atmospheric pressure, temperature, roughness, and obstacles. As an effective method of high-dimensional feature extraction, deep neural network can theoretically deal with arbitrary nonlinear transformation through proper structural design, such as adding noise to outputs, evolutionary learning used to optimize hidden layer weights, optimize the objective function so as to save information that can improve the output accuracy while filter out the irrelevant or less affected information for forecasting. The establishment of high-precision wind speed and wind power forecasting models is always a challenge due to the randomness, instantaneity and seasonal characteristics

Towards large scale continuous EDA: a random matrix theory perspective

Estimation of distribution algorithms (EDA) are a major branch of evolutionary algorithms (EA) with some unique advantages in principle. They are able to take advantage of correlation structure to drive the search more efficiently, and they are able to provide insights about the structure of the search space. However, model building in high dimensions is extremely challenging and as a result existing EDAs lose their strengths in large scale problems. Large scale continuous global optimisation is key to many real world problems of modern days. Scaling up EAs to large scale problems has become one of the biggest challenges of the field. This paper pins down some fundamental roots of the problem and makes a start at developing a new and generic framework to yield effective EDA-type algorithms for large scale continuous global optimisation problems. Our concept is to introduce an ensemble of random projections of the set of fittest search points to low dimensions as a basis for developing a new and generic divide-and-conquer methodology. This is rooted in the theory of random projections developed in theoretical computer science, and will exploit recent advances of non-asymptotic random matrix theory

Probabilistic and artificial intelligence modelling of drought and agricultural crop yield in Pakistan

Pakistan is a drought-prone, agricultural nation with hydro-meteorological imbalances that increase the scarcity of water resources, thus, constraining water availability and leading major risks to the agricultural productivity sector and food security. Rainfall and drought are imperative matters of consideration, both for hydrological and agricultural applications. The aim of this doctoral thesis is to advance new knowledge in designing hybridized probabilistic and artificial intelligence forecasts models for rainfall, drought and crop yield within the agricultural hubs in Pakistan. The choice of these study regions is a strategic decision, to focus on precision agriculture given the importance of rainfall and drought events on agricultural crops in socioeconomic activities of Pakistan. The outcomes of this PhD contribute to efficient modelling of seasonal rainfall, drought and crop yield to assist farmers and other stakeholders to promote more strategic decisions for better management of climate risk for agriculturalreliant nations

BAT - The Bayesian Analysis Toolkit

We describe the development of a new toolkit for data analysis. The analysis package is based on Bayes' Theorem, and is realized with the use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo. This gives access to the full posterior probability distribution. Parameter estimation, limit setting and uncertainty propagation are implemented in a straightforward manner. A goodness-of-fit criterion is presented which is intuitive and of great practical use.Comment: 31 pages, 10 figure