Hydrologic modeling using triangulated irregular networks : terrain representation, flood forecasting and catchment response

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 2003.Includes bibliographical references.Numerical models are modern tools for capturing the spatial and temporal variability in the land-surface hydrologic response to rainfall and understanding the physical relations between internal watershed processes and observed streamflow. This thesis presents the development and application of a distributed hydrologic model distinguished by its representation of topography through a triangulated irregular network (TIN) and its coupling of the surface and subsurface processes leading to the catchment response. As a research tool for hydrologic forecasting and experimentation, the TIN-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator (tRIBS) fully incorporates spatial heterogeneities in basin topography, surface descriptors and hydrometeorological forcing to produce dynamic maps of hydrologic states and fluxes. These capabilities allow investigation of theoretical questions and practical problems in hydrologic science and water resources engineering. Three related themes are developed in this thesis. First, a set of methods are developed for constructing TIN topographic models from raster digital elevation models (DEM) for hydrologic and geomorphic applications. A new approach for representing a steady-state estimate of a particular watershed process within the physical mesh is introduced. Hydrologic comparisons utilizing different terrain models are made to investigate the suitable level of detail required for capturing process dynamics accurately. Second, the TIN-based model is utilized in conjunction with a rainfall forecasting algorithm to assess the space-time flood predictability. For two hydrometeorological case studies, the forecast skill is assessed as a function of rainfall forecast lead time, catchment scale and the spatial variability in the quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF). Third, the surface and subsurface runoff response in a complex basin is investigated with respect to changes in storm properties and the initial water table position.The partitioning of rainfall into runoff production mechanisms is found to be a causative factor in the nonlinearity and scale-dependence observed in the basin hydrograph response. The model applications presented in this thesis highlight the advantages of TIN- based modeling for hydrologic forecasting and process-oriented studies over complex terrain. In particular, the multi-resolution and multi-scale capabilities are encouraging for a range of applied and scientific problems in catchment hydrology.by Enrique R. Vivoni.Ph.D

Regular Hierarchical Surface Models: A conceptual model of scale variation in a GIS and its application to hydrological geomorphometry

Environmental and geographical process models inevitably involve parameters that vary spatially. One example is hydrological modelling, where parameters derived from the shape of the ground such as flow direction and flow accumulation are used to describe the spatial complexity of drainage networks. One way of handling such parameters is by using a Digital Elevation Model (DEM), such modelling is the basis of the science of geomorphometry. A frequently ignored but inescapable challenge when modellers work with DEMs is the effect of scale and geometry on the model outputs. Many parameters vary with scale as much as they vary with position. Modelling variability with scale is necessary to simplify and generalise surfaces, and desirable to accurately reconcile model components that are measured at different scales. This thesis develops a surface model that is optimised to represent scale in environmental models. A Regular Hierarchical Surface Model (RHSM) is developed that employs a regular tessellation of space and scale that forms a self-similar regular hierarchy, and incorporates Level Of Detail (LOD) ideas from computer graphics. Following convention from systems science, the proposed model is described in its conceptual, mathematical, and computational forms. The RHSM development was informed by a categorisation of Geographical Information Science (GISc) surfaces within a cohesive framework of geometry, structure, interpolation, and data model. The positioning of the RHSM within this broader framework made it easier to adapt algorithms designed for other surface models to conform to the new model. The RHSM has an implicit data model that utilises a variation of Middleton and Sivaswamy (2001)’s intrinsically hierarchical Hexagonal Image Processing referencing system, which is here generalised for rectangular and triangular geometries. The RHSM provides a simple framework to form a pyramid of coarser values in a process characterised as a scaling function. In addition, variable density realisations of the hierarchical representation can be generated by defining an error value and decision rule to select the coarsest appropriate scale for a given region to satisfy the modeller’s intentions. The RHSM is assessed using adaptions of the geomorphometric algorithms flow direction and flow accumulation. The effects of scale and geometry on the anistropy and accuracy of model results are analysed on dispersive and concentrative cones, and Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR) derived surfaces of the urban area of Dunedin, New Zealand. The RHSM modelling process revealed aspects of the algorithms not obvious within a single geometry, such as, the influence of node geometry on flow direction results, and a conceptual weakness of flow accumulation algorithms on dispersive surfaces that causes asymmetrical results. In addition, comparison of algorithm behaviour between geometries undermined the hypothesis that variance of cell cross section with direction is important for conversion of cell accumulations to point values. The ability to analyse algorithms for scale and geometry and adapt algorithms within a cohesive conceptual framework offers deeper insight into algorithm behaviour than previously achieved. The deconstruction of algorithms into geometry neutral forms and the application of scaling functions are important contributions to the understanding of spatial parameters within GISc

HIGHWAY ALIGNMENT ALONG THE CORRIDORS USING REMOTE SENSING AND GEOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION SYSTEM - PERUNDURAI TO PALANI, TAMILNADU, INDIA

Best route location and highway alignment selection process is a complicated one due to many variables it must be considered. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) can easily represent such variables, including topography, environment, built-up areas and geology variables. It is to identify the short route for the vehicles travelling from Perundurai to Palani and to diminish the time journey for the vehicles with possible routes for laying eco-friendly highway. This study took compensation of GIS capabilities that present the ability to overlay maps, merge them and execute spatial analysis on different layers of information in either two or three dimensions. GIS model for route location and highway alignment developed and worn to create alternate highway route applications. After the alternatives are preliminarily deliberated using ArcGIS9.3, the imitation is used to analyze, evaluate and to select the best alternative with least impacts on environment and economy. The selected highway is supposed to connect three districts viz. Erode, Tirupur and Dindugal. In final stages of examination and assessment, the replica envelops the high capabilities in analyzing the impacts of every alternatives, with buffering and spatial relations.   Three different routes are identified as left, middle and right routes. Right route is identified as best route which fulfils least cost with eco-friendly environment, material reduction on number of bridges and culverts

Modelling the Holocene evolution of coastal gullies on the Isle of Wight

Geomorphological evidence has frequently been used to infer past environmental conditions, but in recent years the emergence of landscape evolution models (LEMs) has opened the possibility of using numerical modelling as a tool in palaeo-environmental reconstruction. The application of LEMs for this purpose involves retrodictive modelling, each simulation scenario being configured with model variables (e.g. reflecting climate change) and parameters to reflect a specific hypothesis of environmental change. Plausible scenarios are then identified by matching contemporary observed and modelled landscapes. However, although considerable uncertainty is known to surround the specification of model driving conditions and parameters, previous studies have not considered this issue. This research applies a technique of accounting for the uncertainty surrounding the specification of driving conditions and model parameters by using reduced complexity 'metamodels' to analyse the full model parameter space and thus constrain sources of uncertainty and plausible retrodicted scenarios more effectively. This study applies the developed techniques to a case study focused on a specific set of coastal gullies found on the Isle of Wight, UK. A key factor in the evolution of these gullies are the relative balance between rates of cliff retreat (which reduces gully extent) and headwards incision caused by knickpoint migration (which increases gully extent). To inform the choice and parameterisation of the numerical model used in this research an empirical-conceptual model of gully evolution was initially developed. To provide a long-term context for the evolution of the gullies and to identify the relative importance of the various driving factors, the Holocene erosional history of the Isle of Wight gullies was then simulated using a LEM. In a preliminary set of simulations a 'traditional' (i.e. with no consideration of parameter uncertainty) retrodictive modelling approach was applied, in which driving variables were arbitrarily altered and observed and simulated landscape topographies compared, under various scenarios of imposed environmental change. These initial results revealed that the coastal gullies have been ephemeral in nature for much of the Holocene, only becoming semi-permanent once cliff retreat rates fall below a critical threshold at 2500 cal. years BP. Next, in an attempt to constrain more detailed erosional histories and to explore the extent to which retrodicted interpretations of landscape change were confounded by uncertainty, a Central Composite Design (CCD) sampling technique was employed to sample variations in the model driving variables, enabling the trajectories of gully response to different combinations of the driving conditions to be modelled explicitly. In some of these simulations, where the ranges of bedrock erodibility (0:03 - 0:04m0:2a)

An Improved Framework for Watershed Discretization and Model Calibration: Application to the Great Lakes Basin

Large-scale (~103–106 km2) physically-based distributed hydrological models have been used increasingly, due to advances in computational capabilities and data availability, in a variety of water and environmental resources management, such as assessing human impacts on regional water budget. These models inevitably contain a large number of parameters used in simulation of various physical processes. Many of these parameters are not measurable or nearly impossible to measure. These parameters are typically estimated using model calibration, defined as adjusting the parameters so that model simulations can reproduce the observed data as close as possible. Due to the large number of model parameters, it is essential to use a formal automated calibration approach in distributed hydrological modelling. The St. Lawrence River Basin in North America contains the largest body of surface fresh water, the Great Lakes, and is of paramount importance for United States and Canada. The Lakes’ water levels have huge impact on the society, ecosystem, and economy of North America. A proper hydrological modelling and basin-wide water budget for the Great Lakes Basin is essential for addressing some of the challenges associated with this valuable water resource, such as a persistent extreme low water levels in the lakes. Environment Canada applied its Modélisation Environnementale-Surface et Hydrologie (MESH) modelling system to the Great Lakes watershed in 2007. MESH is a coupled semi-distributed land surface-hydrological model intended for various water management purposes including improved operational streamflow forecasts. In that application, model parameters were only slightly adjusted during a brief manual calibration process. Therefore, MESH streamflow simulations were not satisfactory and there was a considerable need to improve its performance for proper evaluation of the MESH modelling system. Collaborative studies between the United States and Canada also highlighted the need for inclusion of the prediction uncertainty in modelling results, for more effective management of the Great Lakes system. One of the primary goals of this study is to build an enhanced well-calibrated MESH model over the Great Lakes Basin, particularly in the context of streamflow predictions in ungauged basins. This major contribution is achieved in two steps. First, the MESH performance in predicting streamflows is benchmarked through a rather extensive formal calibration, for the first time, in the Great Lakes Basin. It is observed that a global calibration strategy using multiple sub-basins substantially improved MESH streamflow predictions, confirming the essential role of a formal model calibration. At the next step, benchmark results are enhanced by further refining the calibration approach and adding uncertainty assessment to the MESH streamflow predictions. This enhancement was mainly achieved by modifying the calibration parameters and increasing the number of sub-basins used in calibration. A rigorous multi-criteria comparison between the two experiments confirmed that the MESH model performance is indeed improved using the revised calibration approach. The prediction uncertainty bands for the MESH streamflow predictions were also estimated in the new experiment. The most influential parameters in MESH were also identified to be soil and channel roughness parameters based on a local sensitivity test. One of the main challenges in hydrological distributed modelling is how to represent the existing spatial heterogeneity in nature. This task is normally performed via watershed discretization, defined as the process of subdividing the basin into manageable “hydrologically similar” computational units. The model performance, and how well it can be calibrated using a limited budget, largely depends on how a basin is discretized. Discretization decisions in hydrologic modelling studies are, however, often insufficiently assessed prior to model simulation and parameter. Few studies explicitly present an organized and objective methodology for assessing discretization schemes, particularly with respect to the streamflow predictions in ungauged basins. Another major goal of this research is to quantitatively assess watershed discretization schemes for distributed hydrological models, with various level of spatial data aggregation, in terms of their skill to predict flows in ungauged basins. The methodology was demonstrated using the MESH model as applied to the Nottawasaga river basin in Ontario, Canada. The schemes differed from a simple lumped scheme to more complex ones by adding spatial land cover and then spatial soil information. Results reveal that calibration budget is an important factor in model performance. In other words, when constrained by calibration budget, using a more complex scheme did not necessarily lead to improved performance in validation. The proposed methodology was also implemented using a shorter sub-period for calibration, aiming at substantial computational saving. This strategy is shown to be promising in producing consistent results and has the potential to increase computational efficiency of this comparison framework. The outcome of this very computationally intensive research, i.e., the well-calibrated MESH model for the Great Lakes and all the final parameter sets found, are now available to be used by other research groups trying to study various aspects of the Great Lakes System. In fact, the benchmark results are already used in the Great Lakes Runoff Intercomparison Project (GRIP). The proposed comparison framework can also be applied to any distributed hydrological model to evaluate alternative discretization schemes, and identify one that is preferred for a certain case

Riverine flooding using GIS and remote sensing

Floods are caused by extreme meteorological and hydrological changes that are influenced directly or indirectly by human activities within the environment. The flood trends show that floods will reoccur and shall continue to affect the livelihoods, property, agriculture and the surrounding environment. This research has analyzed the riverine flood by integrating remote sensing, Geographical Information Systems (GIS), and hydraulic and/or hydrological modeling, to develop informed flood mapping for flood risk management. The application of Hydrological Engineering Center River Analysis System (HEC RAS) and HEC HMS models, developed by the USA Hydrologic Engineering Center of the Army Corps of Engineers in a data-poor environment of a developing country were successful, as a flood modeling tools in early warning systems and land use planning. The methodology involved data collection, preparation, and model simulation using 30m Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM) Digital Elevation Model (DEM) as a critical data input of HEC RAS model. The findings showed that modeling using HEC-RAS and HEC HMS models in a data-poor environment requires intensive data enhancements and adjustments; multiple utilization of open sources data; carrying out multiple model computation iterations and calibration; multiple field observation, which may be constrained with time and resources to get reasonable output

Soil erosion in the Alps : causes and risk assessment

The issue of soil erosion in the Alps has long been neglected due to the low economic value of the agricultural land. However, soil stability is a key parameter which affects ecosystem services like slope stability, water budgets (drinking water reservoirs as well as flood prevention), vegetation productivity, ecosystem biodiversity and nutrient production. In alpine regions, spatial estimates on soil erosion are difficult to derive because the highly heterogeneous biogeophysical structure impedes measurement of soil erosion and the applicability of soil erosion models. However, remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) methods allow for spatial estimation of soil erosion by direct detection of erosion features and supply of input data for soil erosion models. Thus, the main objective of this work is to address the problem of soil erosion risk assessment in the Alps on catchment scale with remote sensing and GIS tools. Regarding soil erosion processes the focus is on soil erosion by water (here sheet erosion) and gravity (here landslides). For these two processes we address i) the monitoring and mapping of the erosion features and related causal factors ii) soil erosion risk assessment with special emphasis on iii) the validation of existing models for alpine areas. All investigations were accomplished in the Urseren Valley (Central Swiss Alps) where the valley slopes are dramatically affected by sheet erosion and landslides. For landslides, a natural susceptibility of the catchment has been indicated by bivariate and multivariate statistical analysis. Geology, slope and stream density are the most significant static landslide causal factors. Static factors are here defined as factors that do not change their attributes during the considered time span of the study (45 years), e.g. geology, stream network. The occurrence of landslides might be significantly increased by the combined effects of global climate and land use change. Thus, our hypothesis is that more recent changes in land use and climate affected the spatial and temporal occurrence of landslides. The increase of the landslide area of 92% within 45 years in the study site confirmed our hypothesis. In order to identify the cause for the trend in landslide occurrence time-series of landslide causal factors were analysed. The analysis revealed increasing trends in the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events and stocking of pasture animals. These developments presumably enhanced landslide hazard. Moreover, changes in land-cover and land use were shown to have affected landslide occurrence. For instance, abandoned areas and areas with recently emerging shrub vegetation show very low landslide densities. Detailed spatial analysis of the land use with GIS and interviews with farmers confirmed the strong influence of the land use management practises on slope stability. The definite identification and quantification of the impact of these non-stationary landslide causal factors (dynamic factors) on the landslide trend was not possible due to the simultaneous change of several factors. The consideration of dynamic factors in statistical landslide susceptibility assessments is still unsolved. The latter may lead to erroneous model predictions, especially in times of dramatic environmental change. Thus, we evaluated the effect of dynamic landslide causal factors on the validity of landslide susceptibility maps for spatial and temporal predictions. For this purpose, a logistic regression model based on data of the year 2000 was set up. The resulting landslide susceptibility map was valid for spatial predictions. However, the model failed to predict the landslides that occurred in a subsequent event. In order to handle this weakness of statistic landslide modelling a multitemporal approach was developed. It is based on establishing logistic regression models for two points in time (here 1959 and 2000). Both models could correctly classify >70% of the independent spatial validation dataset. By subtracting the 1959 susceptibility map from the 2000 susceptibility map a deviation susceptibility map was obtained. Our interpretation was that these susceptibility deviations indicate the effect of dynamic causal factors on the landslide probability. The deviation map explained 85% of new independent landslides occurring after 2000. Thus, we believe it to be a suitable tool to add a time element to a susceptibility map pointing to areas with changing susceptibility due to recently changing environmental conditions or human interactions. In contrast to landslides that are a direct threat to buildings and infrastructure, sheet erosion attracts less attention because it is often an unseen process. Nonetheless, sheet erosion may account for a major proportion of soil loss. Soil loss by sheet erosion is related to high spatial variability, however, in contrast to arable fields for alpine grasslands erosion damages are long lasting and visible over longer time periods. A crucial erosion triggering parameter that can be derived from satellite imagery is fractional vegetation cover (FVC). Measurements of the radiogenic isotope Cs-137, which is a common tracer for soil erosion, confirm the importance of FVC for soil erosion yield in alpine areas. Linear spectral unmixing (LSU), mixture tuned matched filtering (MTMF) and the spectral index NDVI are applied for estimating fractional abundance of vegetation and bare soil. To account for the small scale heterogeneity of the alpine landscape very high resolved multispectral QuickBird imagery is used. The performance of LSU and MTMF for estimating percent vegetation cover is good (r²=0.85, r²=0.71 respectively). A poorer performance is achieved for bare soil (r²=0.28, r²=0.39 respectively) because compared to vegetation, bare soil has a less characteristic spectral signature in the wavelength domain detected by the QuickBird sensor. Apart from monitoring erosion controlling factors, quantification of soil erosion by applying soil erosion risk models is done. The performance of the two established models Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) and Pan-European Soil Erosion Risk Assessment (PESERA) for their suitability to model erosion for mountain environments is tested. Cs-137 is used to verify the resulting erosion rates from USLE and PESERA. PESERA yields no correlation to measured Cs-137 long term erosion rates and shows lower sensitivity to FVC. Thus, USLE is used to model the entire study site. The LSU-derived FVC map is used to adapt the C factor of the USLE. Compared to the low erosion rates computed with the former available low resolution dataset (1:25000) the satellite supported USLE map shows “hotspots” of soil erosion of up to 16 t ha-1 a-1. In general, Cs-137 in combination with the USLE is a very suitable method to assess soil erosion for larger areas, as both give estimates on long-term soil erosion. Especially for inaccessible alpine areas, GIS and remote sensing proved to be powerful tools that can be used for repetitive measurements of erosion features and causal factors. In times of global change it is of crucial importance to account for temporal developments. However, the evaluation of the applied soil erosion risk models revealed that the implementation of temporal aspects, such as varying climate, land use and vegetation cover is still insufficient. Thus, the proposed validation strategies (spatial, temporal and via Cs-137) are essential. Further case studies in alpine regions are needed to test the methods elaborated for the Urseren Valley. However, the presented approaches are promising with respect to improve the monitoring and identification of soil erosion risk areas in alpine regions