Merging the local and global approaches to probabilistic satisfiability

AbstractThe probabilistic satisfiability problem is to verify the consistency of a set of probability values or intervals for logical propositions. The (tight) probabilistic entailment problem is to find best bounds on the probability of an additional proposition. The local approach to these problems applies rules on small sets of logical sentences and probabilities to tighten given probability intervals. The global approach uses linear programming to find best bounds. We show that merging these approaches is profitable to both: local solutions can be used to find global solutions more quickly through stabilized column generation, and global solutions can be used to confirm or refute the optimality of the local solutions found. As a result, best bounds are found, together with their step-by-step justification

An anytime deduction heuristic for first order probabilistic logic

This thesis describes an anytime deduction heuristic to address the decision and optimization form of the First Order Probabilistic Logic problem which was revived by Nilsson in 1986. Reasoning under uncertainty is always an important issue for AI applications, e.g., expert systems, automated theorem-provers, etc. Among the proposed models and methods for dealing with uncertainty, some as, e.g., Nilsson's ones, are based on logic and probability. Nilsson revisited the early works of Boole (1854) and Hailperin (1976) and reformulated them in an AI framework. The decision form of the probabilistic logic problem, also known as PSAT, consists of finding, given a set of logical sentences together with their probability value to be true, whether the set of sentences and their probability value is consistent. In the optimization form, assuming that a system of probabilistic formulas is already consistent, the problem is: Given an additional sentence, find the tightest possible probability bounds such that the overall system remains consistent with that additional sentence. Solution schemes, both heuristic and exact, have been proposed within the propositional framework. Even though first order logic is more expressive than the propositional one, more works have been published in the propositional framework. The main objective of this thesis is to propose a solution scheme based on a heuristic approach, i.e., an anytime deduction technique, for the decision and optimization form of first order probabilistic logic problem. Jaumard et al. [33] proposed an anytime deduction algorithm for the propositional probabilistic logic which we extended to the first order context

Expressive probabilistic description logics

AbstractThe work in this paper is directed towards sophisticated formalisms for reasoning under probabilistic uncertainty in ontologies in the Semantic Web. Ontologies play a central role in the development of the Semantic Web, since they provide a precise definition of shared terms in web resources. They are expressed in the standardized web ontology language OWL, which consists of the three increasingly expressive sublanguages OWL Lite, OWL DL, and OWL Full. The sublanguages OWL Lite and OWL DL have a formal semantics and a reasoning support through a mapping to the expressive description logics SHIF(D) and SHOIN(D), respectively. In this paper, we present the expressive probabilistic description logics P-SHIF(D) and P-SHOIN(D), which are probabilistic extensions of these description logics. They allow for expressing rich terminological probabilistic knowledge about concepts and roles as well as assertional probabilistic knowledge about instances of concepts and roles. They are semantically based on the notion of probabilistic lexicographic entailment from probabilistic default reasoning, which naturally interprets this terminological and assertional probabilistic knowledge as knowledge about random and concrete instances, respectively. As an important additional feature, they also allow for expressing terminological default knowledge, which is semantically interpreted as in Lehmann's lexicographic entailment in default reasoning from conditional knowledge bases. Another important feature of this extension of SHIF(D) and SHOIN(D) by probabilistic uncertainty is that it can be applied to other classical description logics as well. We then present sound and complete algorithms for the main reasoning problems in the new probabilistic description logics, which are based on reductions to reasoning in their classical counterparts, and to solving linear optimization problems. In particular, this shows the important result that reasoning in the new probabilistic description logics is decidable/computable. Furthermore, we also analyze the computational complexity of the main reasoning problems in the new probabilistic description logics in the general as well as restricted cases

Stochastic Reasoning with Action Probabilistic Logic Programs

In the real world, there is a constant need to reason about the behavior of various entities. A soccer goalie could benefit from information available about past penalty kicks by the same player facing him now. National security experts could benefit from the ability to reason about behaviors of terror groups. By applying behavioral models, an organization may get a better understanding about how best to target their efforts and achieve their goals. In this thesis, we propose action probabilistic logic (or ap-) programs, a formalism designed for reasoning about the probability of events whose inter-dependencies are unknown. We investigate how to use ap-programs to reason in the kinds of scenarios described above. Our approach is based on probabilistic logic programming, a well known formalism for reasoning under uncertainty, which has been shown to be highly flexible since it allows imprecise probabilities to be specified in the form of intervals that convey the inherent uncertainty in the knowledge. Furthermore, no independence assumptions are made, in contrast to many of the probabilistic reasoning formalisms that have been proposed. Up to now, all work in probabilistic logic programming has focused on the problem of entailment, i.e., verifying if a given formula follows from the available knowledge. In this thesis, we argue that other problems also need to be solved for this kind of reasoning. The three main problems we address are: Computing most probable worlds: what is the most likely set of actions given the current state of affairs?; answering abductive queries: how can we effect changes in the environment in order to evoke certain desired actions?; and Reasoning about promises: given the importance of promises and how they are fulfilled, how can we incorporate quantitative knowledge about promise fulfillment in ap-programs? We address different variants of these problems, propose exact and heuristic algorithms to scalably solve them, present empirical evaluations of their performance, and discuss their application in real world scenarios

Extending uncertainty formalisms to linear constraints and other complex formalisms

Linear constraints occur naturally in many reasoning problems and the information that they represent is often uncertain. There is a difficulty in applying AI uncertainty formalisms to this situation, as their representation of the underlying logic, either as a mutually exclusive and exhaustive set of possibilities, or with a propositional or a predicate logic, is inappropriate (or at least unhelpful). To overcome this difficulty, we express reasoning with linear constraints as a logic, and develop the formalisms based on this different underlying logic. We focus in particular on a possibilistic logic representation of uncertain linear constraints, a lattice-valued possibilistic logic, an assumption-based reasoning formalism and a Dempster-Shafer representation, proving some fundamental results for these extended systems. Our results on extending uncertainty formalisms also apply to a very general class of underlying monotonic logics

Probabilistic inductive constraint logic

AbstractProbabilistic logical models deal effectively with uncertain relations and entities typical of many real world domains. In the field of probabilistic logic programming usually the aim is to learn these kinds of models to predict specific atoms or predicates of the domain, called target atoms/predicates. However, it might also be useful to learn classifiers for interpretations as a whole: to this end, we consider the models produced by the inductive constraint logic system, represented by sets of integrity constraints, and we propose a probabilistic version of them. Each integrity constraint is annotated with a probability, and the resulting probabilistic logical constraint model assigns a probability of being positive to interpretations. To learn both the structure and the parameters of such probabilistic models we propose the system PASCAL for "probabilistic inductive constraint logic". Parameter learning can be performed using gradient descent or L-BFGS. PASCAL has been tested on 11 datasets and compared with a few statistical relational systems and a system that builds relational decision trees (TILDE): we demonstrate that this system achieves better or comparable results in terms of area under the precision–recall and receiver operating characteristic curves, in a comparable execution time