Experimental and numerical analysis of the squat and resistance of ships advancing through the new Suez Canal

When a ship is sailing in shallow and restricted waters such as harbours and canals, it is usually accompanied by obvious sinkage and trim, called squat. The ship squat has important influences on ship hydrodynamic performance in shallow and restricted water such as ship resistance. Squat is caused by the drop in pressure under the bottom of the ship, where the relative speed of the water is higher. Due to the squat effect, the hydrodynamic forces on the ship will increase largely, ship control will become difficult and risks of grounding may increase. A new division of the Suez Canal is called New Suez Canal, recently opened for international navigation. It is important to obtain accurate prediction data for ship squat to minimise the risk of grounding in this canal. Accurate prediction of the squat is of great significance to correctly evaluate ship hydrodynamic performance and to ensure navigation safety in the New Suez Canal. In this study, various methods for prediction of ship squat were conducted and introduced. A series of experiments were conducted with a model scale of the KRISO Container Ship (KCS) at 1:75 scale. The squat of the KCS was examined by measuring its sinkage, trim and resistance. The influences of ship speed, water depth, ship-bank distance on the squat and blockage effect were analysed. The results indicated that for Froude's number based on depth (Fnh) below 0.4, measured squat values do not change with either Fnh or depth to draft ratio (H/T). The squat increases with H/T values for the depth Froude numbers higher than 0.4. Moreover, a ship's speed can be increased to up to 9 knots inside the New Suez Canal with no adverse effects, thus significantly reducing the time for a ship to pass through the Canal. Next, the study of reduced the Canal width to 62.5% of its real-life cross sectional area, no significant effect was observed on ship squat. Moreover, a series of experimental tests were conducted at loading conditions under different trimming angles to examine the range of ship trim for safe and efficient sailing in canals. to detect the best trim angle for ships during sailing in restricted waters to reduce resistance and therefore fuel consumption.;The results show that for depth Froude's numbers higher than 0.4, the ship model sinkage is less for aft trim than for level trim or forward trim. Concurrently, it can be observed that there is less water resistance for aft trim than for forward trim, albeit level trim shows the least resistance. Furthermore, the present study combines numerical, analytical and empirical methods for a holistic approach in calm water. As a case-study, the KCS hullform is adopted, and analysed experimentally, via Computational Fluid Dynamics, using the slender body theory, and empirical formulae. The results reveal strong effect between the canal's cross section and all examined parameters. In addition, CFD calculations proved to be a reliable tool for predicting ship performance while navigating shallow and restricted waters. CFD simulations in multiphase and double body regime are performed to reveal the form factor and wave resistance of the KCS. This is performed in two different canals while varying the depth Froude number. The results suggest a dependency of the form factor on ship speed. Analytical and empirical methods were used for comparison, the slender body theory, provided good predictions in the low speed range, but did not agree well with the experimental data at high speeds. To model the sloping canal sides of the Suez Canal via the slender body theory, a rectangular canal with equivalent blockage was constructed, which may have influenced the accuracy of the theory.When a ship is sailing in shallow and restricted waters such as harbours and canals, it is usually accompanied by obvious sinkage and trim, called squat. The ship squat has important influences on ship hydrodynamic performance in shallow and restricted water such as ship resistance. Squat is caused by the drop in pressure under the bottom of the ship, where the relative speed of the water is higher. Due to the squat effect, the hydrodynamic forces on the ship will increase largely, ship control will become difficult and risks of grounding may increase. A new division of the Suez Canal is called New Suez Canal, recently opened for international navigation. It is important to obtain accurate prediction data for ship squat to minimise the risk of grounding in this canal. Accurate prediction of the squat is of great significance to correctly evaluate ship hydrodynamic performance and to ensure navigation safety in the New Suez Canal. In this study, various methods for prediction of ship squat were conducted and introduced. A series of experiments were conducted with a model scale of the KRISO Container Ship (KCS) at 1:75 scale. The squat of the KCS was examined by measuring its sinkage, trim and resistance. The influences of ship speed, water depth, ship-bank distance on the squat and blockage effect were analysed. The results indicated that for Froude's number based on depth (Fnh) below 0.4, measured squat values do not change with either Fnh or depth to draft ratio (H/T). The squat increases with H/T values for the depth Froude numbers higher than 0.4. Moreover, a ship's speed can be increased to up to 9 knots inside the New Suez Canal with no adverse effects, thus significantly reducing the time for a ship to pass through the Canal. Next, the study of reduced the Canal width to 62.5% of its real-life cross sectional area, no significant effect was observed on ship squat. Moreover, a series of experimental tests were conducted at loading conditions under different trimming angles to examine the range of ship trim for safe and efficient sailing in canals. to detect the best trim angle for ships during sailing in restricted waters to reduce resistance and therefore fuel consumption.;The results show that for depth Froude's numbers higher than 0.4, the ship model sinkage is less for aft trim than for level trim or forward trim. Concurrently, it can be observed that there is less water resistance for aft trim than for forward trim, albeit level trim shows the least resistance. Furthermore, the present study combines numerical, analytical and empirical methods for a holistic approach in calm water. As a case-study, the KCS hullform is adopted, and analysed experimentally, via Computational Fluid Dynamics, using the slender body theory, and empirical formulae. The results reveal strong effect between the canal's cross section and all examined parameters. In addition, CFD calculations proved to be a reliable tool for predicting ship performance while navigating shallow and restricted waters. CFD simulations in multiphase and double body regime are performed to reveal the form factor and wave resistance of the KCS. This is performed in two different canals while varying the depth Froude number. The results suggest a dependency of the form factor on ship speed. Analytical and empirical methods were used for comparison, the slender body theory, provided good predictions in the low speed range, but did not agree well with the experimental data at high speeds. To model the sloping canal sides of the Suez Canal via the slender body theory, a rectangular canal with equivalent blockage was constructed, which may have influenced the accuracy of the theory

Feasibility of commercial cargo shipping along the Northern Sea Route

At least over the past two centuries, the Northern Sea Route (NSR), a link connecting the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans through Russian Arctic territorial waters, has attracted seafarers willing to test its potential for delivering shorter and faster voyages. Traditionally maritime activity along the NSR has been constrained by a harsh climate, including perennial ice-cover and sub-zero temperatures. In recent decades, climate change has entailed improving climate conditions for shipping in the form of receding Arctic Sea ice-cover. This has turned the focus towards the Arctic region as a whole, mostly linked to its abundant reserves of natural resources. In many respects, climate change has reactivated interest in the NSR as a route for accessing natural resource riches and transcontinental shipping shortcuts between Europe and Asia. Despite the significant multi-level attention focused on the NSR, an understanding of its feasibility is far from being conclusive, which has resulted in varying conclusions in the media and extant literature. This research aims to produce a holistic, fact-based and unbiased view on the feasibility of commercial cargo shipping along the NSR from the point-of-view of ship owners. The main research question investigates under what conditions commercial cargo shipping along the NSR could become feasible. It is divided into three separate research sub-questions, which focus on: i) economic viability; ii) infrastructure and related services; and iii) market potential. The system-like characteristics of the phenomenon in question entail the positioning of the thesis in the categories of critical realism and pragmatism, with the emphasis on the former. The research approach has elements of constructive and system orientations, while the logic of inquiry relies on abductive reasoning with descriptive, normative and pragmatic features. The thesis consists of five separate articles and the concluding summary, which contains new empirical data. The summary concludes with the findings of the appended papers and provides an overall synthesis with reference to the main research question and the more specific sub-questions. This research employs quantitative research methods, including trend and capacity analysis as well as cost calculation and system dynamics modeling. Moreover, the widely used PESTEL framework is used in the concluding summary to describe the relevant external factors related to the political, economic, social, technological, environmental and legal preconditions affecting commercial cargo shipping along the NSR. The subject of thesis is bound to the real world, which entails that the relevant research parameters are directly obtainable on a practical level. Accordingly, theprimary research data comprises fleet and cost information from maritime consultancies, the data are then enhanced through the opinions of practitioners and those who have studied its potential. The thesis contributes on three levels: managerial, theoretical and policy-making. On the managerial level, it contributes by providing normative tools, i.e. cost calculation and simulation models for ship owners in order to assess feasibility in a holistic manner. These tools provide guidance for the decision-making of ship owners and pertain to ship investment and management. A more pragmatic input is to participate in the general Arctic discussion, which tends to be based on unrealistic perceptions and misconceptions. This is valuable not only for business but also a wider audience. The thesis also contributes on a theoretical level in terms of providing a typology for the Arctic shipping cost categorization and the generic profiles of the NSR ships. In addition, it provides a substantial contribution to the ongoing Arctic policy-making discussion in terms of the adoption of national strategies. The conclusion of the thesis is that commercial cargo shipping along the NSR could be feasible under the right circumstances in the short-term, relating to particular shipping sectors in a favorable market and climate conditions. In particular, destinational traffic, i.e. traffic to or from the Russian Arctic along the NSR, most often associated with bulk shipping, may prove economically viable. However, the size of the market potential is limited, especially when taking into account the scant maritime infrastructure and dependency on macroeconomic drivers. From the ship owner’s decision-making point-of-view, the contemporary shipping economies in bulk shipping may be viewed as seizing market opportunities without a long-term commitment. On the other hand, more prominent involvement in shipping along the NSR would also require a number of fleet design considerations. In the long-term, the development of the NSR involves a high degree of uncertainty as its feasibility depends on a number of external factors relating mainly to climate, political and market issues.Kauppamerenkulun toimintaedellytykset Pohjoisreitillä Viime vuosisatojen aikana Pohjoisreitti, eli Atlantin ja Tyynen valtameren yhdistävä merireitti Venäjän arktisten merialueiden halki, on houkutellut merenkulkijoita testaamaan sen soveltuvuutta lyhempiin ja nopeampiin purjehduksiin. Ankara ilmasto – muun muassa erittäin alhaiset lämpötilat ja ympärivuotinen jääpeite – on kuitenkin merkittävästi rajoittanut perinteistä merenkulkua tällä reitillä. Viimeisten vuosikymmenten aikana ilmaston lämpeneminen ja sen myötä ohentunut jääpeite on vähitellen muokannut olosuhteita suotuisammaksi merenkululle. Tämä on osaltaan lisännyt maailmanlaajuista mielenkiintoa arktista aluetta kohtaan muun muassa alueella sijaitsevien runsaiden luonnonvarojen sekä mannertenväliselle merenkululle avautuvien mahdollisuuksien vuoksi. Viimeaikaisesta mielenkiinnosta huolimatta ymmärrys Pohjoisreitin soveltuvuudesta kauppamerenkululle on vielä varsin puutteellinen, mikä käy ilmi tutkimuskirjallisuudessa ja mediassa esitetyistä johtopäätöksistä. Tämä väitöskirjatutkimus pyrkii tuottamaan kokonaisvaltaisen, faktaperusteisen ja puolueettoman kuvan kauppamerenkulun toimintaedellytyksistä Pohjoisreitillä laivanvarustajan näkökulmasta. Tavoitteena on selvittää, millaisten reunaehtojen vallitessa Pohjoisreitillä voisi harjoittaa kannattavaa kauppamerenkulkua. Tavoitteeseen pyritään vastaamalla kolmeen alakysymykseen: i) mikä on reitin taloudellinen kannattavuus, ii) millainen merenkulun infrastruktuuri ja millaiset tukipalvelut reitillä on, sekä iii) mikä on reitin markkinapotentiaali. Tutkimuksen kohteena olevan ilmiön systeemiset ominaispiirteet sijoittavat tämän tutkimuksen tieteenfilosofisessa mielessä kriittisen realismin ja pragmatismin luokkiin, jossa paino on vahvasti ensin mainitussa. Tutkimusotteessa on piirteitä konstruktiivisesta ja systeeminäkökulmista, kun taas tieteellisen päättelyn logiikka pohjautuu abduktiiviseen otteeseen kuvailevine, normatiivisine ja pragmaattisina ominaispiirteineen. Väitöskirja koostuu viidestä erillisestä artikkelista ja johdanto-osasta, joka sisältää myös uutta empiiristä tietoa. Johdanto-osa kokoaa yhteen liitteenä olevien artikkelien tulokset, vastaa pää- ja alatutkimuskysymyksiin sekä esittää tutkimuksen synteesin. Tutkimuksen kvantitatiivisina tutkimusmenetelminä käytetään trendi- ja kapasiteettianalyysiä sekä kustannus- ja systeemidynamiikkamallinnusta. Johdanto-osassa on lisäksi käytetty ns. PESTEL-viitekehystä kuvaamaan niitä poliittisia, taloudellisia, sosiaalisia, teknologisia, ympäristöllisiä ja lainsäädännöllisiä reunaehtoja, jotka vaikuttavat kauppamerenkulun toimintaedellytyksiin Pohjoisreitillä. Tutkimuksen kohteena on reaalimaailman ilmiö: Pohjoisreitin soveltuvuus kauppamerenkulkuun. Näin ollen työn keskeiset tutkimusparametrit sekä empiirinen aineisto perustuvat parhaaseen saatavilla olevaan käytännön tietoon. Pääasiallisen tutkimusaineisto muodostuu alus- ja kustannustiedoista, jotka on saatu maailman johtavilta merenkulun konsulttitoimistoilta. Näitä tietoja on täydennetty soveltuvin osin toimija- ja asiantuntijanäkemyksillä. Työssä on myös erittäin kattava aihepiiriä käsittelevän tutkimuskirjallisuuden katsaus. Kokonaisuutena työn kontribuutio on osallistua yleiseen arktiseen aluetta ja sen potentiaalia koskevaan keskusteluun, ja tuoda tähän keskusteluun faktapohjaisia argumentteja aiempien osin epärealististen odotusten ja käsitysten vastapainoksi. Väitöskirjan kontribuutiot ulottuvat myös liikkeenjohtoon erityisesti varustamotoiminnan osalta, teoreettisesti merenkulkutalouden tutkimukseen sekä arktiseen alueeseen liittyvään poliittiseen päätöksentekoonkin. Liikkeenjohdolle tutkimus tuottaa normatiivisia työkaluja erityisesti laivanvarustajille kustannuslaskenta- ja simulaatiomallien muodossa, jotka mahdollistavat kauppamerenkulun toimintaedellytysten kokonaisvaltaisen arvioinnin mm. alusinvestointien ja operatiivisen toiminnan suunnittelun osalta. Väitöskirjan keskeinen teoreettinen kontribuutio liittyy arktisen merenkulun kustannusluokittelumallin rakentamiseen sekä yleisten kustannus- ja tuottoprofiilien luomiseen Pohjoisreitin aluksista. Lisäksi työ antaa merkittävän panoksen arktisen alueen poliittiseen päätöksentekoon niin kansallisella kuin kansainväliselläkin tasolla. Tutkimuksen johtopäätöksenä on, että Pohjoisreitin kaupallisen merenkulun toimintaedellytykset voivat täyttyä lyhyellä tähtäimellä vain varsin tiukkojen reunaehtojen vallitessa. Näitä ovat mm. suotuisa markkinatilanne, sopivien lastien ja kuljetuskapasiteetin saatavuus sekä suosiolliset ilmasto-olosuhteet reitillä. Näidenkin edellytysten täyttyessä vain hyvin rajallinen osa maailman merenkulusta voi näitä mahdollisuuksia hyödyntää, ja reitin kaupallinen potentiaali erityisesti Euroopan ja Aasian välisessä kauttakulkuliikenteessä tullee olemaan marginaalinen vielä pitkään. Sen sijaan liikenteellä Venäjän omiin arktisiin kohteisiin tai kohteista (ns. määränpääliikenne) on konkreettista potentiaalia erityisesti nestemäisen ja kuivan irtolastin merikuljetuksissa. Tämän markkinan koko on kuitenkin rajattu, mikä johtuu mm. alueen puutteellisesta infrastruktuurista (ml. riittämätön jäänmurtokapasiteetti) ja liikenteen kysynnän riippuvuudesta makroekonomisista tekijöistä. Laivanvarustajan näkökulmasta Pohjoisreitin tämänhetkiset kauppamerenkululliset mahdollisuudet eritoten irtolastien osalta perustuvat opportunistisiin lyhytaikaisiin markkinamahdollisuuksiin tarttumisiin ilman pidempiaikaista sitoutumista. Toisaalta reitin laajamittaisempi hyödyntäminen edellyttää myös alusteknisten näkökohtien entistä tarkempaa huomioimista. Pidemmällä aikajänteellä Pohjoisreitin kauppamerenkululliset toimintaedellytykset sisältävät suuren määrän epävarmuutta, koska ne ovat riippuvaisia useista ulkoisista tekijöistä, joista tärkeimmät ovat ilmaston kehitys sekä poliittiset ja markkinoilla tapahtuvat muutokset.Siirretty Doriast

Extreme weather disaster resilient port and waterway infrastructure for sustainable global supply chain

Global supply chain is largely dependent on seaports and marine terminals. Ports serve international cargo traffic for imports and exports. About 90% of the world’s goods are transported by sea and over 70% as containerized cargo ships. Coastal hurricanes/cyclones and rainfall flood disasters cause major disruptions for sea shipping traffic, disruptions of port infrastructure, and adverse impacts on coastal communities each year. Additionally, these weather related disasters threaten millions of people, damage infrastructure, and cost billions of dollars in global supply chain disruptions. Sustainable global supply chains, port infrastructure, and coastal community impact by these extreme weather disasters are the major motivation of this research. The objectives of this research are: (1) modeling shipping demand and level of service, (2) developing Landsat-8 satellite imagery based methodology for mapping surface types and landuse, and (3) assessing the impact of coastal disasters and climate related sea level rise. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model equations, the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) models, and regression equations were developed using historical containerized cargo volumes to predict the future volumes for the Port of New Orleans and the Port of New York and New Jersey. The predictions by these models indicate that the ANN model achieves the most accurate predicted values, compared to reported volume. However, the ANN approach requires future values of independent variable inputs to calculate the forecast. Therefore, applying the ANN model was recommended for short-term prediction for these ports. The ARIMA model equation was applied for long-term prediction because it does not need other independent variable inputs. Results of cargo vessel volume analysis for ten selected international shipping navigation routes using Automatic Identification System (AIS) data show that the Europe Atlantic route to the East Coast of the U.S. has the largest cargo vessel volumes. A spatial map of cargo vessel demand for selected navigation routes was also created. A level of service (LOS) methodology for cargo vessel service was developed using AIS data for the Port of Miami to evaluate the operating conditions of a seaport. A mathematical function to estimate LOS level (A, B, C, D, E, F) was proposed based on delay time and waiting time of cargo vessels at the port and number of processed cargo vessels per total annual cargo vessels. A new methodology was developed to classify built and non-built surfaces using Landsat-8 satellite imagery. Groundtruth samples of the Landsat-8 pansharpened multispectral satellite imageries from six selected sites were sampled and used to develop the Landsat-8 Built-up Area and Natural Surface (L-BANS) auto-classification methodology. The L-BANS surface classification results for most sites using GeoMedia Pro geospatial analysis were within ±15% of the groundtruth. Based on analysis of variance (ANOVA) hypothesis testing results, the difference between the L-BANS results and the groundtruth was not statistically significant. The anthropogenic CO2 based global warming hypothesis was evaluated to undertand climate impacts. Measured global temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) data from 1958 to 2016 were analyzed. The final ARIMA time series seasonal model equation for monthly global temperature data had a high R value of 0.989 with only 2.25% difference compared to measured values. The final ARIMA model equation for monthly CO2 data provided reasonably accurate results for 2016 monthly measured CO2 data with high a R value of 0.999 with only 0.0025% difference compared to measured values. The results show that there is very poor crosscorrelation (0.08) between global temperature and CO2. Both IPCC and EPA models predict unreasonably high values of CO2 until 2050. This research shows that contrary to the IPCC claims, global warming is not caused by anthropogenic CO2. Rainfall flood simulations were conducted for five selected port cities using the one dimension (1-D) U.S. Army Hydrologic Engineering Center’s River Analysis System (HEC-RAS). Results of the rainfall flood simulations indicate that these selected port cities are at great risk to extreme floods, in which more than 37% of the land area of each port city is inundated by floodwater. This dissertation also presents the Center for Advanced Infrastructure Technology (CAIT) methodologies to evaluate the land submerged from 2 m sea level rise (SLR) related to climate impacts by the year 2100 and the impact of 2 m, 4 m, and 9 m tsunami wave peak heights (WPH) on the selected port cities. The results show that extreme rainfall flood, which can happen any year, is more disastrous to people and infrastructures compared to 2 m SLR and 2 m tsunami WPH. A resilience management plan was recommended to protect both people and infrastructure from coastal hazards. In response to SLR and tsunami, the seawall around port infrastructures should be improved and raised to 2 m height to protect life infrastructure and communities in the port cities. This research will benefit port authorities, maritime and waterway cargo shipping enterprises, and port cities in reducing impacts on communities and enhancing disaster resilience of port infrastructures, which are imperative for minimizing disruptions in the global supply chain and sustaining the world economy

Emerging Risks in the Marine Transportation System (MTS), 2001- 2021

How has maritime security evolved since 2001, and what challenges exist moving forward? This report provides an overview of the current state of maritime security with an emphasis on port security. It examines new risks that have arisen over the last twenty years, the different types of security challenges these risks pose, and how practitioners can better navigate these challenges. Building on interviews with 37 individuals immersed in maritime security protocols, we identify five major challenges in the modern maritime security environment: (1) new domains for exploitation, (2) big data and information processing, (3) attribution challenges, (4) technological innovations, and (5) globalization. We explore how these challenges increase the risk of small-scale, high-probability incidents against an increasingly vulnerable Marine Transportation System (MTS). We conclude by summarizing several measures that can improve resilience-building and mitigate these risks

ARMA Model-Based Prediction of the Number of Vessels Navigating the Istanbul Strait Unassisted by Maritime Pilots

The Istanbul Strait is one of the busiest and riskiest trade routes, with the annual traffic of 50,000 ships. Such high traffic density is managed by the enforcement of a passage regimen by the Vessel Traffic Service (VTS) and maritime pilots of the Directorate General of Coastal Safety of the Republic of Turkey. VTS operations and maritime pilot actions are assumed to complement each other. Accordingly, a vessel unaccompanied by a maritime pilot is expected to interact with the VTS to a greater extent than a vessel assisted by a maritime pilot. Thus, estimating the number of ships that pass through the Istanbul Strait, especially those that do not use maritime pilot assistance, will be an effective tool for the Istanbul Strait traffic scheme management, as it will allow the authorities to balance and integrate VTS and maritime pilot operations. The predictive model based on Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) described in this paper has been developed to estimate the number of ships that navigate through the Istanbul Strait without pilot assistance. The best ARMA model was identified through the use of historical data on 100-150 meter and 150-200-meter-long ships that passed through the Istanbul Strait unaccompanied by pilots in 2012-2019. The ARMA model obtained has also been validated through the comparison of real and estimated data

ARMA Model-Based Prediction of the Number of Vessels Navigating the Istanbul Strait Unassisted by Maritime Pilots

The Istanbul Strait is one of the busiest and riskiest trade routes, with the annual traffic of 50,000 ships. Such high traffic density is managed by the enforcement of a passage regimen by the Vessel Traffic Service (VTS) and maritime pilots of the Directorate General of Coastal Safety of the Republic of Turkey. VTS operations and maritime pilot actions are assumed to complement each other. Accordingly, a vessel unaccompanied by a maritime pilot is expected to interact with the VTS to a greater extent than a vessel assisted by a maritime pilot. Thus, estimating the number of ships that pass through the Istanbul Strait, especially those that do not use maritime pilot assistance, will be an effective tool for the Istanbul Strait traffic scheme management, as it will allow the authorities to balance and integrate VTS and maritime pilot operations. The predictive model based on Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) described in this paper has been developed to estimate the number of ships that navigate through the Istanbul Strait without pilot assistance. The best ARMA model was identified through the use of historical data on 100-150 meter and 150-200-meter-long ships that passed through the Istanbul Strait unaccompanied by pilots in 2012-2019. The ARMA model obtained has also been validated through the comparison of real and estimated data

A Techno-Economic Assessment of Shipping Through the Arctic

The Arctic Ocean is experiencing considerable and adverse environmental change driven by global warming. Global warming is inducing Arctic ice to melt and recede, facilitating increased accessibility for ships to transit through. Arctic shipping routes are shorter than their counterparts the Suez and Panama Canal routes. For the same origin and destination, a shorter shipping route would enable lower transport costs and an increased volume of trade. In this thesis, the principal contribution is to expand the framing of Arctic shipping feasibility to include costs from emission externalities and assess Arctic shipping feasibility on balance with these externalities. Five scenarios which represent different societal choices and levels of global warming were considered to see how they affect the development of Arctic shipping viability. All ships are treated as newbuilds, alternative fuelled ships are assumed to have the machinery retrofitted on top of the newbuild design. A dimensionless metric was proposed to enable a comparison of Arctic shipping feasibility between the different scenarios in the years 2020, 2035 and 2050. Including emission damages increased the feasibility of Arctic shipping due to the lower damages associated with air pollution in the Arctic and a lower intensity of emissions. However, only externalities from a select number of emission species were considered which means that the considered environmental costs are an underestimate. The veracity of increased feasibility is discussed. A deterministic analysis was complemented with a stochastic assessment to address uncertainties and show that Arctic shipping probably becomes economically feasible for container shipping and infeasible for dry bulkers across all scenarios. Mixed results were returned for tankers. A sensitivity analysis found that the most significant variables that determine Arctic shipping feasibility were the cost of carbon, engine load and route lengths. This thesis concludes with a discussion on the implications of these results

ErgoShip 2021 – Maritime artikler

Welcome to the special issue dedicated to the conference Ergoship 2021! The editorial committee are proud to present a selection of papers from Ergoship 2021 and a few invited papers within the topic of maritime Human Factors. The first Ergoshipwas held in Gothenburg in 2011 to create a meeting place for researchers in maritime Human Factors. The conference has lived on and was held in Australia 2016, in Haugesund 2019 and in South Korea 2021. We wish we could all have met in person, but this time it was not to be. Nevertheless, we look forward to sharing these papers with you and hope we can drive this field forward together. Enjoy the papers from a small but passionate group of contributors. The authors and the audience make this recurring conference special