Multivariate time series analysis for short-term forecasting of ground level ozone (O3) in Malaysia

The declining of air quality mostly affects the elderly, children, people with asthma, as well as a restriction on outdoor activities. Therefore, there is an importance to provide a statistical modelling to forecast the future values of surface layer ozone (O3) concentration. The objectives of this study are to obtain the best multivariate time series (MTS) model and develop an online air quality forecasting system for O3 concentration in Malaysia. The implementations of MTS model improve the recent statistical model on air quality for short-term prediction. Ten air quality monitoring stations situated at four (4) different types of location were selected in this study. The first type is industrial represent by Pasir Gudang, Perai, and Nilai, second type is urban represent by Kuala Terengganu, Kota Bharu, and Alor Setar. The third is suburban located in Banting, Kangar, and Tanjung Malim, also the only background station at Jerantut. The hourly record data from 2010 to 2017 were used to assess the characteristics and behaviour of O3 concentration. Meanwhile, the monthly record data of O3, particulate matter (PM10), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulphur dioxide (SO2), carbon monoxide (CO), temperature (T), wind speed (WS), and relative humidity (RH) were used to examine the best MTS models. Three methods of MTS namely vector autoregressive (VAR), vector moving average (VMA), and vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA), has been applied in this study. Based on the performance error, the most appropriate MTS model located in Pasir Gudang, Kota Bharu and Kangar is VAR(1), Kuala Terengganu and Alor Setar for VAR(2), Perai and Nilai for VAR(3), Tanjung Malim for VAR(4) and Banting for VAR(5). Only Jerantut obtained the VMA(2) as the best model. The lowest root mean square error (RMSE) and normalized absolute error is 0.0053 and <0.0001 which is for MTS model in Perai and Kuala Terengganu, respectively. Meanwhile, for mean absolute error (MAE), the lowest is in Banting and Jerantut at 0.0013. The online air quality forecasting system for O3 was successfully developed based on the best MTS models to represent each monitoring station

Real-time Planning as Decision-making Under Uncertainty

In real-time planning, an agent must select the next action to take within a fixed time bound. Many popular real-time heuristic search methods approach this by expanding nodes using time-limited A* and selecting the action leading toward the frontier node with the lowest f value. In this thesis, we reconsider real-time planning as a problem of decision-making under uncertainty. We treat heuristic values as uncertain evidence and we explore several backup methods for aggregating this evidence. We then propose a novel lookahead strategy that expands nodes to minimize risk, the expected regret in case a non-optimal action is chosen. We evaluate these methods in a simple synthetic benchmark and the sliding tile puzzle and find that they outperform previous methods. This work illustrates how uncertainty can arise even when solving deterministic planning problems, due to the inherent ignorance of time-limited search algorithms about those portions of the state space that they have not computed, and how an agent can benefit from explicitly meta-reasoning about this uncertainty

Estimating Fire Weather Indices via Semantic Reasoning over Wireless Sensor Network Data Streams

Wildfires are frequent, devastating events in Australia that regularly cause significant loss of life and widespread property damage. Fire weather indices are a widely-adopted method for measuring fire danger and they play a significant role in issuing bushfire warnings and in anticipating demand for bushfire management resources. Existing systems that calculate fire weather indices are limited due to low spatial and temporal resolution. Localized wireless sensor networks, on the other hand, gather continuous sensor data measuring variables such as air temperature, relative humidity, rainfall and wind speed at high resolutions. However, using wireless sensor networks to estimate fire weather indices is a challenge due to data quality issues, lack of standard data formats and lack of agreement on thresholds and methods for calculating fire weather indices. Within the scope of this paper, we propose a standardized approach to calculating Fire Weather Indices (a.k.a. fire danger ratings) and overcome a number of the challenges by applying Semantic Web Technologies to the processing of data streams from a wireless sensor network deployed in the Springbrook region of South East Queensland. This paper describes the underlying ontologies, the semantic reasoning and the Semantic Fire Weather Index (SFWI) system that we have developed to enable domain experts to specify and adapt rules for calculating Fire Weather Indices. We also describe the Web-based mapping interface that we have developed, that enables users to improve their understanding of how fire weather indices vary over time within a particular region.Finally, we discuss our evaluation results that indicate that the proposed system outperforms state-of-the-art techniques in terms of accuracy, precision and query performance.Comment: 20pages, 12 figure