Machine Prognosis with Full Utilization of Truncated Lifetime Data

Intelligent machine fault prognostics estimates how soon and likely a failure will occur with little human expert judgement. It minimizes production downtime, spares inventory and maintenance labour costs. Prognostic models, especially probabilistic methods, require numerous historical failure instances. In practice however, industrial and military communities would rarely allow their engineering assets to run to failure. It is only known that the machine component survived up to the time of repair or replacement but there is no information as to when the component would have failed if left undisturbed. Data of this sort are called truncated data. This paper proposes a novel model, the Intelligent Product Limit Estimator (iPLE), which utilizes truncated data to perform adaptive long-range prediction of a machine component's remaining lifetime. It takes advantage of statistical models' ability to provide useful representation of survival probabilities, and of neural networks ability to recognise nonlinear relationships between a machine component's future survival condition and a given series of prognostic data features. Progressive bearing degradation data were simulated and used to train and validate the proposed model. The results support our hypothesis that the iPLE can perform better than similar prognostics models that neglect truncated data

Fault detection in operating helicopter drive train components based on support vector data description

The objective of the paper is to develop a vibration-based automated procedure dealing with early detection of mechanical degradation of helicopter drive train components using Health and Usage Monitoring Systems (HUMS) data. An anomaly-detection method devoted to the quantification of the degree of deviation of the mechanical state of a component from its nominal condition is developed. This method is based on an Anomaly Score (AS) formed by a combination of a set of statistical features correlated with specific damages, also known as Condition Indicators (CI), thus the operational variability is implicitly included in the model through the CI correlation. The problem of fault detection is then recast as a one-class classification problem in the space spanned by a set of CI, with the aim of a global differentiation between normal and anomalous observations, respectively related to healthy and supposedly faulty components. In this paper, a procedure based on an efficient one-class classification method that does not require any assumption on the data distribution, is used. The core of such an approach is the Support Vector Data Description (SVDD), that allows an efficient data description without the need of a significant amount of statistical data. Several analyses have been carried out in order to validate the proposed procedure, using flight vibration data collected from a H135, formerly known as EC135, servicing helicopter, for which micro-pitting damage on a gear was detected by HUMS and assessed through visual inspection. The capability of the proposed approach of providing better trade-off between false alarm rates and missed detection rates with respect to individual CI and to the AS obtained assuming jointly-Gaussian-distributed CI has been also analysed

Prognosis of Bearing Acoustic Emission Signals Using Supervised Machine Learning

© 2017 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. Permission from IEEE must be obtained for all other uses, in any current or future media, including reprinting/republishing this material for advertising or promotional purposes, creating new collective works, for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or reuse of any copyrighted component of this work in other works.Acoustic emission (AE) technique can be successfully utilized for condition monitoring of various machining and industrial processes. To keep machines function at optimal levels, fault prognosis model to predict the remaining useful life (RUL) of machine components is required. This model is used to analyze the output signals of a machine whilst in operation and accordingly helps to set an early alarm tool that reduces the untimely replacement of components and the wasteful machine downtime. Recent improvements indicate the drive on the way towards incorporation of prognosis and diagnosis machine learning techniques in future machine health management systems. With this in mind, this work employs three supervised machine learning techniques; support vector machine regression, multilayer artificial neural network model and gaussian process regression, to correlate AE features with corresponding natural wear of slow speed bearings throughout series of laboratory experiments. Analysis of signal parameters such as signal intensity estimator and root mean square was undertaken to discriminate individual types of early damage. It was concluded that neural networks model with back propagation learning algorithm has an advantage over the other models in estimating the RUL for slow speed bearings if the proper network structure is chosen and sufficient data is provided.Peer reviewe

Degradation modeling applied to residual lifetime prediction using functional data analysis

Sensor-based degradation signals measure the accumulation of damage of an engineering system using sensor technology. Degradation signals can be used to estimate, for example, the distribution of the remaining life of partially degraded systems and/or their components. In this paper we present a nonparametric degradation modeling framework for making inference on the evolution of degradation signals that are observed sparsely or over short intervals of times. Furthermore, an empirical Bayes approach is used to update the stochastic parameters of the degradation model in real-time using training degradation signals for online monitoring of components operating in the field. The primary application of this Bayesian framework is updating the residual lifetime up to a degradation threshold of partially degraded components. We validate our degradation modeling approach using a real-world crack growth data set as well as a case study of simulated degradation signals.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/10-AOAS448 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Robust gradient-based discrete-time iterative learning control algorithms

This paper considers the use of matrix models and the robustness of a gradient-based Iterative Learning Control (ILC) algorithm using both fixed learning gains and gains derived from parameter optimization. The philosophy of the paper is to ensure monotonic convergence with respect to the mean square value of the error time series. The paper provides a complete and rigorous analysis for the systematic use of matrix models in ILC. Matrix models make analysis clearer and provide necessary and sufficient conditions for robust monotonic convergence. They also permit the construction of sufficient frequency domain conditions for robust monotonic convergence on finite time intervals for both causal and non-causal controller dynamics. The results are compared with recent results for robust inverse-model based ILC algorithms and it is seen that the algorithm has the potential to improve robustness to high frequency modelling errors provided that resonances within the plant bandwidth have been suppressed by feedback or series compensation