Open source software maturity model based on linear regression and Bayesian analysis

Open Source Software (OSS) is widely used and is becoming a significant and irreplaceable part of the software engineering community. Today a huge number of OSS exist. This becomes a problem if one needs to choose from such a large pool of OSS candidates in the same category. An OSS maturity model that facilitates the software assessment and helps users to make a decision is needed. A few maturity models have been proposed in the past. However, the parameters in the model are assigned not based on experimental data but on human experiences, feelings and judgments. These models are subjective and can provide only limited guidance for the users at the best. This dissertation has proposed a quantitative and objective model which is built from the statistical perspective. In this model, seven metrics are chosen as criteria for OSS evaluation. A linear multiple-regression model is created to assign a final score based on these seven metrics. This final score provides a convenient and objective way for the users to make a decision. The coefficients in the linear multiple-regression model are calculated from 43 OSS. From the statistical perspective, these coefficients are considered random variables. The joint distribution of the coefficients is discussed based on Bayesian statistics. More importantly, an updating rule is established through Bayesian analysis to improve the joint distribution, and thus the objectivity of the coefficients in the linear multiple-regression model, according to new incoming data. The updating rule provides the model the ability to learn and improve itself continually

Open source software maturity model based on linear regression and Bayesian analysis

Open Source Software (OSS) is widely used and is becoming a significant and irreplaceable part of the software engineering community. Today a huge number of OSS exist. This becomes a problem if one needs to choose from such a large pool of OSS candidates in the same category. An OSS maturity model that facilitates the software assessment and helps users to make a decision is needed. A few maturity models have been proposed in the past. However, the parameters in the model are assigned not based on experimental data but on human experiences, feelings and judgments. These models are subjective and can provide only limited guidance for the users at the best. This dissertation has proposed a quantitative and objective model which is built from the statistical perspective. In this model, seven metrics are chosen as criteria for OSS evaluation. A linear multiple-regression model is created to assign a final score based on these seven metrics. This final score provides a convenient and objective way for the users to make a decision. The coefficients in the linear multiple-regression model are calculated from 43 OSS. From the statistical perspective, these coefficients are considered random variables. The joint distribution of the coefficients is discussed based on Bayesian statistics. More importantly, an updating rule is established through Bayesian analysis to improve the joint distribution, and thus the objectivity of the coefficients in the linear multiple-regression model, according to new incoming data. The updating rule provides the model the ability to learn and improve itself continually

Thirty Years of Spatial Econometrics

In this paper, I give a personal view on the development of the field of spatial econometrics during the past thirty years. I argue that it has moved from the margins to the mainstream of applied econometrics and social science methodology. I distinguish three broad phases in the development, which I refer to as preconditions, takeoff and maturity. For each of these phases I describe the main methodological focus and list major contributions. I conclude with some speculations about future directions.

A Comparison of Machine-Learning Methods to Select Socioeconomic Indicators in Cultural Landscapes

Cultural landscapes are regarded to be complex socioecological systems that originated as a result of the interaction between humanity and nature across time. Cultural landscapes present complex-system properties, including nonlinear dynamics among their components. There is a close relationship between socioeconomy and landscape in cultural landscapes, so that changes in the socioeconomic dynamic have an effect on the structure and functionality of the landscape. Several numerical analyses have been carried out to study this relationship, with linear regression models being widely used. However, cultural landscapes comprise a considerable amount of elements and processes, whose interactions might not be properly captured by a linear model. In recent years, machine-learning techniques have increasingly been applied to the field of ecology to solve regression tasks. These techniques provide sound methods and algorithms for dealing with complex systems under uncertainty. The term ‘machine learning’ includes a wide variety of methods to learn models from data. In this paper, we study the relationship between socioeconomy and cultural landscape (in Andalusia, Spain) at two different spatial scales aiming at comparing different regression models from a predictive-accuracy point of view, including model trees and neural or Bayesian networks

MCMCpack: Markov Chain Monte Carlo in R

We introduce MCMCpack, an R package that contains functions to perform Bayesian inference using posterior simulation for a number of statistical models. In addition to code that can be used to fit commonly used models, MCMCpack also contains some useful utility functions, including some additional density functions and pseudo-random number generators for statistical distributions, a general purpose Metropolis sampling algorithm, and tools for visualization.

Evolution of statistical analysis in empirical software engineering research: Current state and steps forward

Software engineering research is evolving and papers are increasingly based on empirical data from a multitude of sources, using statistical tests to determine if and to what degree empirical evidence supports their hypotheses. To investigate the practices and trends of statistical analysis in empirical software engineering (ESE), this paper presents a review of a large pool of papers from top-ranked software engineering journals. First, we manually reviewed 161 papers and in the second phase of our method, we conducted a more extensive semi-automatic classification of papers spanning the years 2001--2015 and 5,196 papers. Results from both review steps was used to: i) identify and analyze the predominant practices in ESE (e.g., using t-test or ANOVA), as well as relevant trends in usage of specific statistical methods (e.g., nonparametric tests and effect size measures) and, ii) develop a conceptual model for a statistical analysis workflow with suggestions on how to apply different statistical methods as well as guidelines to avoid pitfalls. Lastly, we confirm existing claims that current ESE practices lack a standard to report practical significance of results. We illustrate how practical significance can be discussed in terms of both the statistical analysis and in the practitioner's context.Comment: journal submission, 34 pages, 8 figure

The Status of the United States Population of Night Shark, Carcharhinus signatus

Night sharks, Carcharhinus signatus, are an oceanic species generally occurring in outer continental shelf waters in the western North Atlantic Ocean including the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. Although not targeted, night sharks make up a segment of the shark bycatch in the pelagic longline fishery. Historically, night sharks comprised a significant proportion of the artisanal Cuban shark fishery but today they are rarely caught. Although information from some fisheries has shown a decline in catches of night sharks, it is unclear whether this decline is due to changes in fishing tactics, market, or species identification. Despite the uncertainty in the decline, the night shark is currently listed as a species of concern due to alleged declines in abundance resulting from fishing effort, i.e. overutilization. To assess their relevance to the species of concern list, we collated available information on the night shark to provide an analysis of its status. Night shark landings were likely both over- and under-reported and thus probably did not reflect all commercial and recreational catches, and overall they have limited relevance to the current status of the species. Average size information has not changed considerably since the 1980’s based on information from the pelagic longline fishery when corrected for gear bias. Analysis of biological information indicates night sharks have intrinsic rates of increase (r) about 10% yr–1 and have moderate rebound potential and an intermediate generation time compared to other sharks. An analysis of trends in relative abundance from four data sources gave conflicting results, with one series in decline, two series increasing, and one series relatively flat. Based on the analysis of all currently available information, we believe the night shark does not qualify as a species of concern but should be retained on the prohibited species list as a precautionary approach to management until a more comprehensive stock assessment can be conducted