An Integrated Fuzzy Multi-Criteria Decision Making Method For Supplier Evaluation

This research investigates the risk exposure arising from the supplier evaluation criteria of cost, quality, delivery, and flexibility of the supplier. Penyelidikan ini bertujuan untuk mengkaji risiko yang timbul daripada kos, kualiti, penghantaran dan fleksibiliti bagi penilaian pembekal

A decision support methodology to enhance the competitiveness of the Turkish automotive industry

This is the post-print (final draft post-refereeing) version of the article. Copyright @ 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.Three levels of competitiveness affect the success of business enterprises in a globally competitive environment: the competitiveness of the company, the competitiveness of the industry in which the company operates and the competitiveness of the country where the business is located. This study analyses the competitiveness of the automotive industry in association with the national competitiveness perspective using a methodology based on Bayesian Causal Networks. First, we structure the competitiveness problem of the automotive industry through a synthesis of expert knowledge in the light of the World Economic Forum’s competitiveness indicators. Second, we model the relationships among the variables identified in the problem structuring stage and analyse these relationships using a Bayesian Causal Network. Third, we develop policy suggestions under various scenarios to enhance the national competitive advantages of the automotive industry. We present an analysis of the Turkish automotive industry as a case study. It is possible to generalise the policy suggestions developed for the case of Turkish automotive industry to the automotive industries in other developing countries where country and industry competitiveness levels are similar to those of Turkey

Contract Farming in Developing Countries: An overview

This paper presents a review of the literature on contract farming (CF), focusing on recent empirical research on the economic impact of CF. The paper starts with an explanation of the phenomenon of CF, providing definitions, typologies, models and objectives. Using a Transaction Costs Economics framework, the paper explains for which products and market CF seems most suitable. The empirical literature on CF is assessed by answering three questions: Why do smallholders engage in CF? Are smallholders included in or excluded from CF arrangements? What impact does CF have on smallholder income and rural development? Finally, the paper identifies the conditions under which smallholders are most likely to benefit from CF schemes

A Challenger to the Limit Order Book: The NYSE Specialist

This paper gives a new answer to the challenging question raised by Glosten (1994): "Is the electronic order book inevitable?". While the order book enables traders to compete to supply anonymous liquidity, the specialist system enables one to reap the benefits from repeated interaction. We compare a competitive limit order book and a limit order book with a specialist, like the NYSE. Thanks to non-anonymous interaction, mediated by brokers, uninformed investors can obtain good liquidity from the specialist. This, however, creates an adverse selection problem on the limit order book. Market liquidity and social welfare are improved by the specialist if adverse selection is severe and if brokers have long horizon, so that reputation becomes a matter of concern for them. In contrast, if asymmetric information is limited, spreads are wider and utilitarian welfare is lower when the specialist competes with the limit order book than in a pure limit order book market.Limit order book; specialist; hybrid market

Pricing Carbon for Electricity Generation: National and International Dimensions

In this paper, which forms a chapter in the forthcoming Book “Delivering a Low Carbon Electricity System: Technologies, Economics and Policy”, Grubb and Newbery examine how carbon for electricity generation should be priced. They begin by suggesting that it is not clear what the correct price of carbon is, but that it spans the whole range of economically plausible prices. They then go on to discuss the theoretical merits of taxes versus quotas, concluding that theoretically a stable tax would best reflect the true social cost of emissions, which should not change with market conditions. They then go to evaluate the EU Emissions Trading Scheme where allowances for the emission of CO2 are traded (EUAs). The price signals offered by the scheme in its first trading period have been very unsatisfactory with high variability and the price trending down towards very low levels as it has become clear that governments were much too generous in their initial allocation of quotas. What is needed is a stable investment environment for low carbon generation investments. They discuss a number of policy options to achieve this: long period commitments on quotas; allowing unconstrained banking and borrowing of EUAs over multiple periods; long term price declarations to be used in allocation auctions; government issued contracts for differences on the future carbon price; or simply to issue low-carbon electricity contracts. The authors conclude with a discussion of the scope for international agreements on carbon emissions reduction. They conclude that imperfect though it is the EU ETS is a good place to start to link up emerging trading regimes, and that quota systems have more of a chance of commanding international agreement at least initially. However any international climate change agreement will be difficult to establish

The floating contract between risk-averse supply chain partners in a volatile commodity price environment

In this dissertation, two separate but closely related decision making problems in environments of volatile commodity prices are addressed. In the first problem, a risk-averse commodity user\u27s purchasing policy and his risk-neutral supplier\u27s pricing decision, where the user can purchase his needs through contract with his supplier as well as directly from the spot market, are analyzed. The commodity user is assumed to be the supplier\u27s sole client, and the supplier can always expand capacity, at a cost to the user, to accommodate the user\u27s demand in excess of initially reserved capacity. In the more generalized second problem, both parties (commodity user and supplier) are assumed to be risk averse, and both can directly access the spot market. In addition to making pricing decisions, the supplier is also faced with the challenge of establishing the right combination of in-house production and spot market engagements to manage her risk of exposure to spot price volatility under the contract. While the supplier has a frictionless buy and sell access to the spot market, the user can only access this market for buying purposes and incurs an access fee that is linearly increasing in the purchased volume. In both problems, by adopting the mean-variance criterion to reflect aversion to risk, the decisions of both parties are explicitly characterized. Based on analytical results and numerical studies, managerial insights as to how changes in the model\u27s parameters would affect each party\u27s decisions are offered at length, and the implications of these results to the manager are discussed. A focal point for the dissertation is the consideration of a floating contract, the landing price of which is contingent on the realization of the commodity\u27s spot market price at the time of delivery. It was found that if properly designed, not only can this dynamic pricing arrangement strategically position a long-term supplier against spot market competition, but it also has the added benefit of leading to improved supply chain expected profits compared to a locked-in contract price setting. Another key finding is that when making her pricing decisions, the supplier runs the risk of overestimating the commodity user\u27s vulnerability at higher levels of the user\u27s aversion to risk as well as at higher volatility of spot prices

An Optimized Resource Allocation Approach to Identify and Mitigate Supply Chain Risks using Fault Tree Analysis

Low volume high value (LVHV) supply chains such as airline manufacturing, power plant construction, and shipbuilding are especially susceptible to risks. These industries are characterized by long lead times and a limited number of suppliers that have both the technical know-how and manufacturing capabilities to deliver the requisite goods and services. Disruptions within the supply chain are common and can cause significant and costly delays. Although supply chain risk management and supply chain reliability are topics that have been studied extensively, most research in these areas focus on high vol- ume supply chains and few studies proactively identify risks. In this research, we develop methodologies to proactively and quantitatively identify and mitigate supply chain risks within LVHV supply chains. First, we propose a framework to model the supply chain system using fault-tree analysis based on the bill of material of the product being sourced. Next, we put forward a set of mathematical optimization models to proactively identify, mitigate, and resource at-risk suppliers in a LVHV supply chain with consideration for a firm’s budgetary constraints. Lastly, we propose a machine learning methodology to quan- tify the risk of an individual procurement using multiple logistic regression and industry available data, which can be used as the primary input to the fault tree when analyzing overall supply chain system risk. Altogether, the novel approaches proposed within this dissertation provide a set of tools for industry practitioners to predict supply chain risks, optimally choose which risks to mitigate, and make better informed decisions with respect to supplier selection and risk mitigation while avoiding costly delays due to disruptions in LVHV supply chains

Application of Optimization in Production, Logistics, Inventory, Supply Chain Management and Block Chain

The evolution of industrial development since the 18th century is now experiencing the fourth industrial revolution. The effect of the development has propagated into almost every sector of the industry. From inventory to the circular economy, the effectiveness of technology has been fruitful for industry. The recent trends in research, with new ideas and methodologies, are included in this book. Several new ideas and business strategies are developed in the area of the supply chain management, logistics, optimization, and forecasting for the improvement of the economy of the society and the environment. The proposed technologies and ideas are either novel or help modify several other new ideas. Different real life problems with different dimensions are discussed in the book so that readers may connect with the recent issues in society and industry. The collection of the articles provides a glimpse into the new research trends in technology, business, and the environment

IMPACTS OF NEW AGRICULTURAL TECHNOLOGIES ON RURAL MALIAN HOUSEHOLDS

A need in Sahelian agriculture is to transform from traditional farming to more modern systems. This paper presents a safety-first type of risk programming model, using complementary programming, to assess the impacts of new agricultural technology. Model results indicate that some new technologies are economically attractive to Malian households.Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,