RankPL: A Qualitative Probabilistic Programming Language

In this paper we introduce RankPL, a modeling language that can be thought of as a qualitative variant of a probabilistic programming language with a semantics based on Spohn's ranking theory. Broadly speaking, RankPL can be used to represent and reason about processes that exhibit uncertainty expressible by distinguishing "normal" from" surprising" events. RankPL allows (iterated) revision of rankings over alternative program states and supports various types of reasoning, including abduction and causal inference. We present the language, its denotational semantics, and a number of practical examples. We also discuss an implementation of RankPL that is available for download

Stochastic Spin-Orbit Torque Devices as Elements for Bayesian Inference

Probabilistic inference from real-time input data is becoming increasingly popular and may be one of the potential pathways at enabling cognitive intelligence. As a matter of fact, preliminary research has revealed that stochastic functionalities also underlie the spiking behavior of neurons in cortical microcircuits of the human brain. In tune with such observations, neuromorphic and other unconventional computing platforms have recently started adopting the usage of computational units that generate outputs probabilistically, depending on the magnitude of the input stimulus. In this work, we experimentally demonstrate a spintronic device that offers a direct mapping to the functionality of such a controllable stochastic switching element. We show that the probabilistic switching of Ta/CoFeB/MgO heterostructures in presence of spin-orbit torque and thermal noise can be harnessed to enable probabilistic inference in a plethora of unconventional computing scenarios. This work can potentially pave the way for hardware that directly mimics the computational units of Bayesian inference

Progress on Intelligent Guidance and Control for Wind Shear Encounter

Low altitude wind shear poses a serious threat to air safety. Avoiding severe wind shear challenges the ability of flight crews, as it involves assessing risk from uncertain evidence. A computerized intelligent cockpit aid can increase flight crew awareness of wind shear, improving avoidance decisions. The primary functions of a cockpit advisory expert system for wind shear avoidance are discussed. Also introduced are computational techniques being implemented to enable these primary functions

Probabilistic Logic Programming with Beta-Distributed Random Variables

We enable aProbLog---a probabilistic logical programming approach---to reason in presence of uncertain probabilities represented as Beta-distributed random variables. We achieve the same performance of state-of-the-art algorithms for highly specified and engineered domains, while simultaneously we maintain the flexibility offered by aProbLog in handling complex relational domains. Our motivation is that faithfully capturing the distribution of probabilities is necessary to compute an expected utility for effective decision making under uncertainty: unfortunately, these probability distributions can be highly uncertain due to sparse data. To understand and accurately manipulate such probability distributions we need a well-defined theoretical framework that is provided by the Beta distribution, which specifies a distribution of probabilities representing all the possible values of a probability when the exact value is unknown.Comment: Accepted for presentation at AAAI 201