6 research outputs found
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Representation Effects and Loss Aversion in Analytical Behaviour: An Experimental Study into Decision Making Facilitated by Visual Analytics
This paper presents the results of an experiment into the relationship between the representation of data and decision-making. Three hundred participants online, were asked to choose between a series of financial investment opportunities using data presented in line charts. A single dependent variable of investment choice was examined over four levels of varying display conditions and randomised data. Three variations to line chart visualisations provided a controlled factor between subjects divided into three groups; -Ëstandardâ line charts, -Ëtallâ line charts, and one dual-series line chart. The final results revealed a consistent main effect and two other interactions between certain display conditions and decision-making. The findings of this paper are significant to the study visualisation and to the field of visual analytics. This experiment was devised as part of a study into Analytical Behaviour, defined as decision-making facilitated by visual analytics - a new topic that encompasses existing research and real-world applications
sPortfolio: Stratified Visual Analysis of Stock Portfolios
Quantitative Investment, built on the solid foundation of robust financial
theories, is at the center stage in investment industry today. The essence of
quantitative investment is the multi-factor model, which explains the
relationship between the risk and return of equities. However, the multi-factor
model generates enormous quantities of factor data, through which even
experienced portfolio managers find it difficult to navigate. This has led to
portfolio analysis and factor research being limited by a lack of intuitive
visual analytics tools. Previous portfolio visualization systems have mainly
focused on the relationship between the portfolio return and stock holdings,
which is insufficient for making actionable insights or understanding market
trends. In this paper, we present sPortfolio, which, to the best of our
knowledge, is the first visualization that attempts to explore the factor
investment area. In particular, sPortfolio provides a holistic overview of the
factor data and aims to facilitate the analysis at three different levels: a
Risk-Factor level, for a general market situation analysis; a
Multiple-Portfolio level, for understanding the portfolio strategies; and a
Single-Portfolio level, for investigating detailed operations. The system's
effectiveness and usability are demonstrated through three case studies. The
system has passed its pilot study and is soon to be deployed in industry
Decision-support and visualising tools for making good accounting decisions
The primary aim of our research is to develop a robust empirical model of the innovative small firm, which is useful for guiding owner-managers in their quest for high performance. The proposed model explains performance by structural variables (e.g. employment, management, directors), intellectual property (e.g. patents filed and granted), and research support (e.g. phased R&D expenditure), within the firm. Our secondary aim is to use this model to develop a new decision support tool, created using visualisation techniques, that helps owner managers, and their accounting advisors, to achieve good returns (e.g. in terms of ROCE). Once estimated, prototyped, tested, and calibrated, this tool should help management accountants to inform the owner managers of entrepreneurial firms in ways of making better decisions within their firms, thereby improving performance. We illustrate our intent with prototype models, tested on provisional ORBIS and FAME datasets, for the world and for the UK
Decision-Making Amplification Under Uncertainty: An Exploratory Study of Behavioral Similarity and Intelligent Decision Support Systems
Intelligent decision systems have the potential to support and greatly amplify human decision-making across a number of industries and domains. However, despite the rapid improvement in the underlying capabilities of these âintelligentâ systems, increasing their acceptance as decision aids in industry has remained a formidable challenge. If intelligent systems are to be successful, and their full impact on decision-making performance realized, a greater understanding of the factors that influence recommendation acceptance from intelligent machines is needed.
Through an empirical experiment in the financial services industry, this study investigated the effects of perceived behavioral similarity (similarity state) on the dependent variables of recommendation acceptance, decision performance and decision efficiency under varying conditions of uncertainty (volatility state). It is hypothesized in this study that behavioral similarity as a design element will positively influence the acceptance rate of machine recommendations by human users. The level of uncertainty in the decision context is expected to moderate this relationship. In addition, an increase in recommendation acceptance should positively influence both decision performance and decision efficiency.
The quantitative exploration of behavioral similarity as a design element revealed a number of key findings. Most importantly, behavioral similarity was found to positively influence the acceptance rate of machine recommendations. However, uncertainty did not moderate the level of recommendation acceptance as expected. The experiment also revealed that behavioral similarity positively influenced decision performance during periods of elevated uncertainty. This relationship was moderated based on the level of uncertainty in the decision context. The investigation of decision efficiency also revealed a statistically significant result. However, the results for decision efficiency were in the opposite direction of the hypothesized relationship. Interestingly, decisions made with the behaviorally similar decision aid were less efficient, based on length of time to make a decision, compared to decisions made with the low-similarity decision aid. The results of decision efficiency were stable across both levels of uncertainty in the decision context
Visualisation de l'information appliquée à l'analyse et à l'attribution de performances financiÚres
Croesus Finansoft dĂ©veloppe depuis 28 ans un logiciel intĂ©grĂ© de gestion de portefeuille pour les firmes de courtages et les conseillers indĂ©pendants. Leur application est prĂ©sentement utilisĂ©e par la plupart des grandes firmes au pays, incluant les financiĂšres CIBC, Banque Nationale, Valeurs MobiliĂšres Desjardins et TD. Lâapplication dĂ©veloppĂ©e par lâentreprise doit donc gĂ©rer des tables de donnĂ©es contenant souvent plus dâun milliard de transactions.
Pour lâentreprise, le dĂ©fi est de taille. Lâapplication doit offrir une vue cohĂ©rente des portefeuilles des investisseurs, en plus de guider les gestionnaires quant aux nouvelles possibilitĂ©s dâinvestissement, au suivi des objectifs de placement, des calculs de rendement, de performance, etc. MalgrĂ© les diffĂ©rentes avancĂ©es technologiques, certaines de ces tĂąches sont encore trĂšs difficiles Ă effectuer, principalement Ă cause de la quantitĂ© de donnĂ©es impliquĂ©es.
Lâanalyse des performances des portefeuilles dâinvestissements est particuliĂšrement problĂ©matique dans ces circonstances. Lâanalyse de performances ne se limite pas simplement Ă comparer des rendements obtenus Ă diffĂ©rents moments dans le temps. Il sâagit dâun processus complexe qui demande la corrĂ©lation dâune multitude dâinformations afin dâobtenir une vue complĂšte de la situation. Les performances des investissements sont toujours Ă©valuĂ©es par rapport Ă une rĂ©fĂ©rence, par exemple un indice de marchĂ©. Lâattribution de performances tente dâexpliquer dâoĂč proviennent les Ă©carts de rendement par rapport Ă cette rĂ©fĂ©rence. Est-ce explicable par le fait que les investisseurs ont choisi des titres ayant offert des rendements supĂ©rieurs Ă ceux de lâindice ? Ou encore parce quâils ont investi davantage dans les obligations Ă long terme, limitant ainsi leur exposition au risque ?
Lâoutil dĂ©veloppĂ© par Croesus permet facilement de mesurer les performances dâun seul portefeuille ou dâun petit groupe de portefeuilles. Effectuer cette analyse pour tous les clients dâune succursale simultanĂ©ment devient beaucoup plus complexe. Croesus ne supporte pas non plus lâattribution de performances. Pour les gestionnaires de lâentreprise, offrir ces fonctionnalitĂ©s sâavĂšre un enjeu de taille, surtout Ă cause de la quantitĂ© de donnĂ©es impliquĂ©es. Comment prĂ©senter ces informations Ă lâexpert sans crĂ©er une surcharge dâinformation ? Comment permettre dâidentifier facilement les problĂšmes dans les donnĂ©es, les tendances gĂ©nĂ©rales, les Ă©carts par rapport aux rĂ©fĂ©rences, de façon Ă ce que des actions concrĂštes puissent ĂȘtre mises en place afin de corriger la situation ?
La visualisation permet de tirer profit de la capacitĂ© humaine Ă interprĂ©ter des images beaucoup plus rapidement et efficacement que des donnĂ©es numĂ©riques ou textuelles. Elle vise Ă augmenter les capacitĂ©s de traitement de lâhumain, de façon Ă ce quâil soit conservĂ© dans le processus dâanalyse, contrairement aux processus de dĂ©cisions automatisĂ©s. Bien que la visualisation soit un domaine actif de recherche depuis de nombreuses annĂ©es, trĂšs peu de solutions adaptĂ©es Ă la rĂ©alitĂ© de la finance, et encore moins Ă lâanalyse des performances, ont Ă©tĂ© prĂ©sentĂ©es jusquâĂ prĂ©sent.
Cette thĂšse explore diffĂ©rentes techniques de visualisation permettant de simplifier le processus dâanalyse de performances financiĂšres dans le contexte de gestion de portefeuilles de lâapplication dĂ©veloppĂ©e par Croesus. Elle prĂ©sente les rĂ©sultats de trois projets distincts rĂ©alisĂ©s au cours des derniĂšres annĂ©es, tous liĂ©s Ă lâanalyse des performances financiĂšres.
Le premier projet prĂ©sente une technique dâinteraction novatrice permettant de simplifier lâanalyse des performances sur un graphique linĂ©aire simple (line graph). Que ce soit pour comparer les rendements de plusieurs centaines de portefeuilles simultanĂ©ment ou pour plusieurs centaines de titres dâun secteur dâactivitĂ©, les graphiques linĂ©aires sont rapidement surchargĂ©s dâinformation, rendant lâanalyse plutĂŽt complexe. Lâoutil proposĂ©, VectorLens, permet dâexplorer les donnĂ©es en offrant des techniques de sĂ©lection avancĂ©es. La principale contribution concerne la sĂ©lection angulaire. Dans la mesure oĂč le graphique prĂ©sente des rendements, la pente des droites encode lâessentiel de lâinformation. VectorLens tire profit de cette caractĂ©ristique et permet, en un seul mouvement, de sĂ©lectionner rapidement et efficacement les Ă©lĂ©ments en fonction de leur pente, moyennant une marge Ă©tablie de façon dynamique. Lâoutil intĂšgre Ă©galement dâautres outils de sĂ©lection, incluant la sĂ©lection par zone (pinceau), la sĂ©lection par catĂ©gories, etc. Il est Ă©galement possible de combiner plusieurs lentilles VectorLens pour effectuer des requĂȘtes plus complexes. La technique a Ă©tĂ© comparĂ©e aux principales techniques de sĂ©lection de courbes dans le cadre dâune expĂ©rience contrĂŽlĂ©e en laboratoire. Les rĂ©sultats ont dĂ©montrĂ© que VectorLens offrait des performances supĂ©rieures ou Ă©gales dans la plupart des cas, en plus dâĂȘtre prĂ©fĂ©rĂ©e par la plupart des utilisateurs.
Le deuxiĂšme projet propose une nouvelle technique de visualisation permettant de sĂ©parer efficacement les couches dâinformations sur un graphique linĂ©aire simple. Cette technique sâavĂšre intĂ©ressante pour comparer les rendements de titres de diffĂ©rents secteurs, ou mĂȘme les rendements de portefeuilles de diffĂ©rents clients, gestionnaires ou mĂȘme succursales, par exemple. PlutĂŽt que dâutiliser uniquement la couleur pour sĂ©parer les diffĂ©rents groupes dâĂ©lĂ©ments, cette technique consiste Ă exploiter lâespace inutilisĂ© entre deux valeurs sur lâabscisse en compressant les courbes des diffĂ©rentes couches, de façon Ă Ă©viter lâocclusion causĂ©e par le chevauchement des courbes. Plusieurs variantes tirant profit de ce concept ont Ă©tĂ© proposĂ©es et comparĂ©es Ă lâĂ©tat de lâart dans le cadre dâune Ă©valuation en laboratoire. Les rĂ©sultats ont dĂ©montrĂ© que les techniques de compression, et plus particuliĂšrement la technique superposĂ©e, permettaient dâeffectuer les tĂąches de façon plus prĂ©cise et avec un taux de succĂšs globalement supĂ©rieur par rapport Ă lâĂ©tat de lâart.
Enfin, le troisiĂšme projet tente dâadresser le problĂšme dâattribution de performances Ă grande Ă©chelle. Deux nouvelles techniques de visualisation, basĂ©es sur un graphique ternaire (ternary plot), ont Ă©tĂ© proposĂ©es afin de reprĂ©senter sur un seul graphique la relation entre le rendement diffĂ©rentiel avec la rĂ©fĂ©rence et les effets expliquant cette diffĂ©rence. Un systĂšme complet, sous la forme dâun tableau de bord intĂ©grant les visualisations proposĂ©es, a Ă©tĂ© dĂ©veloppĂ© et Ă©valuĂ© avec quatre experts du domaine dans un contexte rĂ©el dâanalyse. Les rĂ©sultats ont dĂ©montrĂ© que les outils proposĂ©s permettent dâanalyser un grand ensemble de portefeuilles, Ă diffĂ©rents niveaux, de façon simple et efficace. Les outils proposĂ©s rĂ©vĂšlent clairement les Ă©carts de performance, permettent dâidentifier facilement la source du problĂšme, et mĂȘme la stratĂ©gie globale utilisĂ©e par les gestionnaires de comptes auprĂšs de leurs clients et les comptes qui dĂ©vient de ces stratĂ©gies