Optimal fares and capacity decisions for crowded public transport systems

International audienceThere is a large operations research literature on public transit system design. An extensive economic literature has also developed on public transit capacity investments, service frequency, and optimal pricing and subsidy policy. These two branches of literature have made significant advances in understanding public transit systems. However, in contrast to the literature on automobile traffic congestion, most of the studies have employed static models that cannot account for travelers' time-of-use decisions and the dynamics of transit congestion and crowding. The time profile of ridership is driven by the trade-off that users face between traveling at peak times and suffering crowding, and avoiding the peak by traveling earlier or later than they would like. A few studies have explored this trade-off using simple microeconomic models that combine trip-scheduling preferences as introduced by Vickrey (1969) with a crowding cost function that describes how utility from travel decreases with passenger loads. In this paper we use this modeling framework to analyze usage of a rail transit line, and assess the potential benefits from internalizing crowding externalities by setting differential train fares. We also present results on optimal train capacity and the number of trains put into service

Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation for the Bus-Corridor Problem in a Many-to-One Mass Transit System

With the growing problem of urban traffic congestion, departure time choice is becoming a more important factor to commuters. By using multiagent modeling and the Bush-Mosteller reinforcement learning model, we simulated the day-to-day evolution of commuters’ departure time choice on a many-to-one mass transit system during the morning peak period. To start with, we verified the model by comparison with traditional analytical methods. Then the formation process of departure time equilibrium is investigated additionally. Seeing the validity of the model, some initial assumptions were relaxed and two groups of experiments were carried out considering commuters’ heterogeneity and memory limitations. The results showed that heterogeneous commuters’ departure time distribution is broader and has a lower peak at equilibrium and different people behave in different pattern. When each commuter has a limited memory, some fluctuations exist in the evolutionary dynamics of the system, and hence an ideal equilibrium can hardly be reached. This research is helpful in acquiring a better understanding of commuter’s departure time choice and commuting equilibrium of the peak period; the approach also provides an effective way to explore the formation and evolution of complicated traffic phenomena

CLIMATE ACTION PLANS - FACT OR FICTION? EVIDENCE FROM MARYLAND

On a sweltering summer day in 1988, NASA scientist James Hansen sounded the alarm, in a congressional hearing, that human activity was changing our climate and without action, the world would face grave danger. Since that time, the United States government has ignored international climate policy efforts and failed multiple times to enact federal guidelines to address this serious problem. In the last decade, state governments have begun to formulate their own climate policy in an effort called Climate Action Planning. Climate action plans seek aggressive reductions and form the backbone of most statewide environmental policies but they often suffer from a lack of scientific analysis, unrealistic expectations, little funding, non-existent implementation strategies, and have no enforcement mechanisms. While plans have proliferated across the nation, little has been done to examine closely the ability of the policies to achieve climate change mitigation goals through enumerated strategies. This thesis fills part of the research void by examining all of the built environment emissions reduction strategies specified in the Maryland CAP. The analysis proceeds by developing multiple models calibrated with local empirical data. The results of this analysis show that Maryland, even with a successful implementation of its CAP will not meet its carbon mitigation targets. Further analysis reveals that a full state, national, and global implementation of similar carbon reduction targets would not alter the trajectory of climate change. To address climate change adequately, Maryland should take a three-prong approach. First, strengthen the mitigation strategies that show the greatest potential to reduce CO2 while abandoning strategies that do not. Second, extend the current set of strategies to include the low hanging and quickly implementable mitigation `fruit'. Third, in the face of serious and inevitable climate change, begin to adapt the built environment for better resiliency to more extreme conditions. The thesis concludes with a call to action for urban planners to address ambiguities that relate to the climate change and the build environment. The timing is "ripe" for planners to take the lead in what will certainly become the next great wave of planning

Elbilpolitikk fra et samfunnsøkonomisk perspektiv

This thesis focuses on the economics and polices for the electrification of transport. Over the last few years we have observed a rapid rise in the number of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in Norway. This growth is the combined result of rapid technological change and a targeted national climate policy. The rising share of BEVs relative to the share of conventional vehicles could lead to socio-economic benefits such as reduced greenhouse gas emissions and local pollution, but it could also pose new challenges such as pressure on the capacity of the electricity distribution network. In addition, BEVs have similar negative externalities as fossil-fueled vehicles with regards to congestion, road wear and accidents. BEVs can mitigate some market failures and exacerbate others, creating a messy optimization problem for the social planner. This illustrates the need for new knowledge on mechanisms and welfare enhancing policies in the transport and electricity markets as they become more integrated. This thesis seeks to contribute to the body of knowledge on the subject, in the following introductory chapter and four independent chapters. The latter chapters are written as scientific papers that are either published or in the process of getting published in peer-reviewed journals.Denne avhandlingen tar for seg elbilpolitikk i et samfunnsøkonomisk perspektiv. De siste årene har vi opplevd en rask økning i antall elbiler i Norge. Denne veksten er et resultat av både rask teknologisk utvikling og en målrettet nasjonal klimapolitikk. Den økende andelen av elbiler i forhold til andelen konvensjonelle biler kan føre til samfunnsøkonomiske fordeler som reduserte klimagassutslipp og lokal forurensning, men det kan også gi nye utfordringer som press på kapasiteten til strømdistribusjonsnettet. I tillegg har elbiler tilsvarende eksterne kostnader som konvensjonelle biler med tanke på kø, veislitasje og ulykker. Elbiler kan dempe noen markedssvikt og forverre andre, og skape et rotete optimaliseringsproblem for samfunnsplanleggeren. Dette understreker behovet for ny kunnskap om den gjensidige påvirkningen mellom transport- og elektrisitetsmarkedet, og hva som kan være samfunnsmessig effektiv politikk. Denne avhandlingen bidrar til kunnskapen om emnet, i det følgende kappen og fire uavhengige kapitler. De siste kapitlene er skrevet som vitenskapelige artikler som enten er publisert eller i ferd med å bli publisert i fagfellevurderte tidsskrifter

Rethinking the Cape Town Property Developer: Understanding the local developer's perspective of the City of Cape Town Municipality and comparing this perspective to local Transit-Orientated Development policy constructs of the developer

Purpose – This dissertation investigated the degree to which the City of Cape Town understands a ‘notional' Cape Town property developer within the Transit-Orientated Development (“TOD”) context. This dissertation is not meant to draw a distinction between a right or wrong model of a local property developer, but to investigate what a richer model would look like using alternative economic perspectives that capture the multiplicity of reality and possible TOD policy implications. Design – A literature review was undertaken to understand institutional and behavioural economic frameworks, how each framework relates to the property market, and how to use the frameworks to assist in defining a developer. Further research was conducted to consider the property development process from the perspective of the Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) framework. The property developer as an actor within the property market was then deconstructed. Alternative approaches to local government involvement in the development industry and the developer's perspective on TOD was also explored. A qualitative, semi-structured localist interview was conducted with nine major developers operating in Cape Town. They were selected because they are likely to participate in catalytic TOD-type projects. The interview aimed to understand their world view and how their lived experience relates to the City of Cape Town municipality. Findings – There is a ‘definition gap' between how the City of Cape Town has defined a developer and the findings of this dissertation. Policy implies a developer has perfect decision-making qualities pursuing maximum profits, whereas this dissertation found that developers tend to be focussed on risk reduction and exhibit satisficing and loss-averse behaviour. There are also those who prefer to build and hold a portfolio of rental properties which are not defined in policy. This type of developer possesses a different outlook and investment behaviour than the one defined in the TOD Strategic Framework. The City of Cape Town does not appreciate its positioning within and its influence on local property market dynamics, as it relates to the ‘rules of the game'. Practical Implications – Without understanding these distinctions, developers may not necessarily, predictably and readily respond to any TOD incentives and levers as set out in the Framework, resulting in policy perpetuating the very spatial inequalities and status quo the City of Cape Town aims to redress

On the Empty Miles of Ride-Sourcing Services: Theory, Observation and Countermeasures

The proliferation of smartphones in recent years has catalyzed the rapid growth of ride-sourcing services such as Uber, Lyft, and Didi Chuxing. Such on-demand e-hailing services significantly reduce the meeting frictions between drivers and riders and provide the platform with unprecedented flexibility and challenges in system management. A big issue that arises with service expansion is the empty miles produced by ride-sourcing vehicles. To overcome the physical and temporal frictions that separate drivers from customers and effectively reposition themselves towards desired destinations, ride-sourcing vehicles generate a significant number of vacant trips. These empty miles traveled result in inefficient use of the available fleet and increase traffic demand, posing substantial impacts on system operations. To tackle the issues, my dissertation is dedicated to deepening our understanding of the formation and the externalities of empty miles, and then proposing countermeasures to bolster system performance. There are two essential and interdependent contributors to empty miles generated by ride-sourcing vehicles: cruising in search of customers and deadheading to pick them up, which are markedly dictated by forces from riders, drivers, the platform, and policies imposed by regulators. In this dissertation, we structure our study of this complex process along three primary axes, respectively centered on the strategies of a platform, the behaviors of drivers, and the concerns of government agencies. In each axis, theoretical models are established to help understand the underlying physics and identify the trade-offs and potential issues that drive behind the empty miles. Massive data from Didi Chuxing, a dominant ride-sourcing company in China, are leveraged to evidence the presence of matters discussed in reality. Countermeasures are then investigated to strengthen management upon the empty miles, balance the interests of different stakeholders, and improve the system performance. Although this dissertation scopes out ride-sourcing services, the models, analyses, and solutions can be readily adapted to address related issues in other types of shared-use mobility services.PHDCivil EngineeringUniversity of Michigan, Horace H. Rackham School of Graduate Studieshttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/163209/1/xzt_1.pd

Adapting Fiscal Decentralization Design to Combat Climate Change

There are still many countries around the world that have not effectively engaged their subnational governments in their climate change strategies and policy frameworks. Where subnational levels are involved, generally they still play a relatively small role. This paper examines how the principles of fiscal decentralization design (in expenditure and revenue assignments, transfers, and borrowing) can be adapted for successfully engaging subnational governments in fighting climate change. In addition, the paper critically reviews already ongoing promising and unhelpful international practices engaging those subnational governments in climate-change mitigation. Shared responsibility for policy and program design and implementation, fee- or charge-funded adaptation activities, objective-targeted intergovernmental transfers, and the use of green bonds are some of the most promising approaches analyzed. Clearly, there is ample space ahead for the further involvement of subnational governments across the world in combating climate change

Government Fragmentation and the Attainment of Regional Environmental Quality

This dissertation investigates whether higher levels of “governmental fragmentation” in metropolitan statistical areas (MSA) leads to worse environmental outcomes. Fragmentation refers to the number of local governments in a given region or MSA as defined by the census. This research contributes to two bodies of literature, that of environmental federalism and that of urban growth and local government form. In the area of environmental federalism this dissertation extends the collective action model to include local governments. An empirical framework is developed that includes cross-sectional and panel data. In the urban growth and local government form literature, this dissertation comprehensively tests many existing measures of local government fragmentation within an environmental policy framework. It also modifies and extends some of the fragmentation variables. The results suggest that local government fragmentation does hinder MSAs from attaining the ozone standard. This dissertation extends the literature by examining the effect that local government fragmentation has on regional environmental quality. Six local government structure variables, jurisdiction count, special district dominance, central city dominance, county primacy, central city growth, and metropolitan power diffusion index are comprehensively tested to determine which might affect regional environmental quality. In addition, this research extends the use of the computationally complex measure of metropolitan power diffusion index to include additional local government expenditures as well as additional years of panel data. Two empirical estimation strategies were implemented, a cross-sectional approach and a panel data approach. The cross-sectional approach estimates the effects that long-term changes in local government structure have on attaining the ozone standard by measuring differences across MSAs. The panel data model’s primary purpose was that of a robustness check on the cross-sectional results. Three of the six tested fragmentation variables were found to have statistically significant effects on MSA attainment of the ozone standard in the cross-sectional model. Higher levels of metropolitan power diffusion index and jurisdiction count were found to hinder attainment of the ozone standard, while greater values of central city growth aided in reaching the attainment standard. Generally, the panel data results’ supported the results from the cross-sectional models. In addition, the panel model resolved some important estimation issues. Metropolitan power diffusion index was found to be correlated with unobservables in the random effects model, indicating that the cross-sectional results for metropolitan power diffusion index may be biased as well. This was not an issue for the variable jurisdiction count. Metropolitan power diffusion index and jurisdiction count are highly correlated with each other and this relationship was used to estimate a reasonable range for the effect metropolitan power diffusion index might have on the attainment of the ozone standard

Transporting Atlanta: The Mode of Mobility under Construction

The transportation crisis in Atlanta has attained epic proportions. Inconveniences and hardships created by too many automobiles and not enough alternatives for movement, have reached untenable levels. Getting at what lies beneath the asphalt, interrogating what drives the paving of America, along with the seemingly unstoppable space, energy, and money consumption that the current mode of mobility entails will perhaps allow for future decision-making that includes a more nuanced reading of the landscape. In an effort to understand these forces, I interrogate the creation, trajectories, and current positioning of three major Atlanta transportation projects: the Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transit Authority (MARTA), the bus and rail system that has been the backbone of metropolitan Atlanta’s public transportation system for the past 30 years; the Georgia Regional Transportation Authority (GRTA), which is the super-agency created in 1999 in an effort to address the air quality issues in the region; and the Beltline, an enormously popular current proposal to build a 22-mile loop of greenspace, transit, and other amenities around an inner loop of the city built on existing rail beds. This investigation engages a wide literature on race, space, and place; attendance at various meetings and relevant symposia; archival data; and in-depth interviews with 20 area transportation experts and interested parties. As race and regionalism are so central to understanding power and procedure in metro Atlanta, particular attention is given to racial and spatial practices. This research reveals the contest over issue framing between car-centered growth promoters, environmental (or green) actors, and social justice, or equity proponents and how the outcomes of this triumvirate’s competition results in regional transportation policies and procedures. The examination of the three instances; MARTA, GRTA, and the Beltline, give us an excellent window into the making of mobility in the region. INDEX WORDS: Transportation, Atlanta, Race and Regionalism, Mobility, GRTA, Beltline, MARTA