Restricted Complexity, General Complexity

Why has the problematic of complexity appeared so late? And why would it be justified

A statistical method for estimating activity uncertainty parameters to improve project forecasting

Just like any physical system, projects have entropy that must be managed by spending energy. The entropy is the project’s tendency to move to a state of disorder (schedule delays, cost overruns), and the energy process is an inherent part of any project management methodology. In order to manage the inherent uncertainty of these projects, accurate estimates (for durations, costs, resources, …) are crucial to make informed decisions. Without these estimates, managers have to fall back to their own intuition and experience, which are undoubtedly crucial for making decisions, but are are often subject to biases and hard to quantify. This paper builds further on two published calibration methods that aim to extract data from real projects and calibrate them to better estimate the parameters for the probability distributions of activity durations. Both methods rely on the lognormal distribution model to estimate uncertainty in activity durations and perform a sequence of statistical hypothesis tests that take the possible presence of two human biases into account. Based on these two existing methods, a new so-called statistical partitioning heuristic is presented that integrates the best elements of the two methods to further improve the accuracy of estimating the distribution of activity duration uncertainty. A computational experiment has been carried out on an empirical database of 83 empirical projects. The experiment shows that the new statistical partitioning method performs at least as good as, and often better than, the two existing calibration methods. The improvement will allow a better quantification of the activity duration uncertainty, which will eventually lead to a better prediction of the project schedule and more realistic expectations about the project outcomes. Consequently, the project manager will be able to better cope with the inherent uncertainty (entropy) of projects with a minimum managerial effort (energy)

Knowledge based cloud FE simulation of sheet metal forming processes

The use of Finite Element (FE) simulation software to adequately predict the outcome of sheet metal forming processes is crucial to enhancing the efficiency and lowering the development time of such processes, whilst reducing costs involved in trial-and-error prototyping. Recent focus on the substitution of steel components with aluminum alloy alternatives in the automotive and aerospace sectors has increased the need to simulate the forming behavior of such alloys for ever more complex component geometries. However these alloys, and in particular their high strength variants, exhibit limited formability at room temperature, and high temperature manufacturing technologies have been developed to form them. Consequently, advanced constitutive models are required to reflect the associated temperature and strain rate effects. Simulating such behavior is computationally very expensive using conventional FE simulation techniques. This paper presents a novel Knowledge Based Cloud FE (KBC-FE) simulation technique that combines advanced material and friction models with conventional FE simulations in an efficient manner thus enhancing the capability of commercial simulation software packages. The application of these methods is demonstrated through two example case studies, namely: the prediction of a material's forming limit under hot stamping conditions, and the tool life prediction under multi-cycle loading conditions

Density Perturbations in Chain Inflation

We consider the model of ``Chain Inflation,'' in which the period of inflation in our universe took the form of a long sequence of quantum tunneling events. We find that in the simplest such scenario, in which the tunneling processes are uniform, approximately 10^4 vacua per e-folding of inflation are required in order that the density perturbations produced are of an acceptable size. We arrive at this conclusion through a combination of analytic and numerical techniques, which could also serve as starting points for calculations with more general sets of assumptions.Comment: 28 pages, 16 figures; v2: corrected typos, increased resolution on D=2+1 data point

Identifying Structural Variation in Haploid Microbial Genomes from Short-Read Resequencing Data Using Breseq

Mutations that alter chromosomal structure play critical roles in evolution and disease, including in the origin of new lifestyles and pathogenic traits in microbes. Large-scale rearrangements in genomes are often mediated by recombination events involving new or existing copies of mobile genetic elements, recently duplicated genes, or other repetitive sequences. Most current software programs for predicting structural variation from short-read DNA resequencing data are intended primarily for use on human genomes. They typically disregard information in reads mapping to repeat sequences, and significant post-processing and manual examination of their output is often required to rule out false-positive predictions and precisely describe mutational events. Results: We have implemented an algorithm for identifying structural variation from DNA resequencing data as part of the breseq computational pipeline for predicting mutations in haploid microbial genomes. Our method evaluates the support for new sequence junctions present in a clonal sample from split-read alignments to a reference genome, including matches to repeat sequences. Then, it uses a statistical model of read coverage evenness to accept or reject these predictions. Finally, breseq combines predictions of new junctions and deleted chromosomal regions to output biologically relevant descriptions of mutations and their effects on genes. We demonstrate the performance of breseq on simulated Escherichia coli genomes with deletions generating unique breakpoint sequences, new insertions of mobile genetic elements, and deletions mediated by mobile elements. Then, we reanalyze data from an E. coli K-12 mutation accumulation evolution experiment in which structural variation was not previously identified. Transposon insertions and large-scale chromosomal changes detected by breseq account for similar to 25% of spontaneous mutations in this strain. In all cases, we find that breseq is able to reliably predict structural variation with modest read-depth coverage of the reference genome (>40-fold). Conclusions: Using breseq to predict structural variation should be useful for studies of microbial epidemiology, experimental evolution, synthetic biology, and genetics when a reference genome for a closely related strain is available. In these cases, breseq can discover mutations that may be responsible for important or unintended changes in genomes that might otherwise go undetected.U.S. National Institutes of Health R00-GM087550U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF) DEB-0515729NSF BEACON Center for the Study of Evolution in Action DBI-0939454Cancer Prevention & Research Institute of Texas (CPRIT) RP130124University of Texas at Austin startup fundsUniversity of Texas at AustinCPRIT Cancer Research TraineeshipMolecular Bioscience

Observations of sea ice and icebergs from satellite radar altimeters

Satellite radar altimeters can make useful contributions to the study of sea ice both by enhancing observations from other instruments and by providing a unique probe of ocean-ice interaction in the Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ). The problems, results and future potential of such observations are discussed

The future of spaceborne altimetry. Oceans and climate change: A long-term strategy

The ocean circulation and polar ice sheet volumes provide important memory and control functions in the global climate. Their long term variations are unknown and need to be understood before meaningful appraisals of climate change can be made. Satellite altimetry is the only method for providing global information on the ocean circulation and ice sheet volume. A robust altimeter measurement program is planned which will initiate global observations of the ocean circulation and polar ice sheets. In order to provide useful data about the climate, these measurements must be continued with unbroken coverage into the next century. Herein, past results of the role of the ocean in the climate system is summarized, near term goals are outlined, and requirements and options are presented for future altimeter missions. There are three basic scientific objectives for the program: ocean circulation; polar ice sheets; and mean sea level change. The greatest scientific benefit will be achieved with a series of dedicated high precision altimeter spacecraft, for which the choice of orbit parameters and system accuracy are unencumbered by requirements of companion instruments