Using CAViaR models with implied volatility for value-at-risk estimation

This paper proposes VaR estimation methods that are a synthesis of conditional autoregressive value at risk (CAViaR) time series models and implied volatility. The appeal of this proposal is that it merges information from the historical time series and the different information supplied by the market’s expectation of risk. Forecast combining methods, with weights estimated using quantile regression, are considered. We also investigate plugging implied volatility into the CAViaR models, a procedure that has not been considered in the VaR area so far. Results for daily index returns indicate that the newly proposed methods are comparable or superior to individual methods, such as the standard CAViaR models and quantiles constructed from implied volatility and the empirical distribution of standardised residual. We find that the implied volatility has more explanatory power as the focus moves further out into the left tail of the conditional distribution of S&P500 daily returns

Unbiased and Consistent Nested Sampling via Sequential Monte Carlo

We introduce a new class of sequential Monte Carlo methods called Nested Sampling via Sequential Monte Carlo (NS-SMC), which reframes the Nested Sampling method of Skilling (2006) in terms of sequential Monte Carlo techniques. This new framework allows convergence results to be obtained in the setting when Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used to produce new samples. An additional benefit is that marginal likelihood estimates are unbiased. In contrast to NS, the analysis of NS-SMC does not require the (unrealistic) assumption that the simulated samples be independent. As the original NS algorithm is a special case of NS-SMC, this provides insights as to why NS seems to produce accurate estimates despite a typical violation of its assumptions. For applications of NS-SMC, we give advice on tuning MCMC kernels in an automated manner via a preliminary pilot run, and present a new method for appropriately choosing the number of MCMC repeats at each iteration. Finally, a numerical study is conducted where the performance of NS-SMC and temperature-annealed SMC is compared on several challenging and realistic problems. MATLAB code for our experiments is made available at https://github.com/LeahPrice/SMC-NS .Comment: 45 pages, some minor typographical errors fixed since last versio

Rejoinder: Monitoring Networked Applications With Incremental Quantile Estimation

Rejoinder: Monitoring Networked Applications With Incremental Quantile Estimation [arXiv:0708.0302]Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/088342306000000592 in the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Information-Geometric Optimization Algorithms: A Unifying Picture via Invariance Principles

We present a canonical way to turn any smooth parametric family of probability distributions on an arbitrary search space $X$ into a continuous-time black-box optimization method on $X$, the \emph{information-geometric optimization} (IGO) method. Invariance as a design principle minimizes the number of arbitrary choices. The resulting \emph{IGO flow} conducts the natural gradient ascent of an adaptive, time-dependent, quantile-based transformation of the objective function. It makes no assumptions on the objective function to be optimized. The IGO method produces explicit IGO algorithms through time discretization. It naturally recovers versions of known algorithms and offers a systematic way to derive new ones. The cross-entropy method is recovered in a particular case, and can be extended into a smoothed, parametrization-independent maximum likelihood update (IGO-ML). For Gaussian distributions on $\mathbb{R}^d$, IGO is related to natural evolution strategies (NES) and recovers a version of the CMA-ES algorithm. For Bernoulli distributions on $\{0,1\}^d$, we recover the PBIL algorithm. From restricted Boltzmann machines, we obtain a novel algorithm for optimization on $\{0,1\}^d$. All these algorithms are unified under a single information-geometric optimization framework. Thanks to its intrinsic formulation, the IGO method achieves invariance under reparametrization of the search space $X$, under a change of parameters of the probability distributions, and under increasing transformations of the objective function. Theory strongly suggests that IGO algorithms have minimal loss in diversity during optimization, provided the initial diversity is high. First experiments using restricted Boltzmann machines confirm this insight. Thus IGO seems to provide, from information theory, an elegant way to spontaneously explore several valleys of a fitness landscape in a single run.Comment: Final published versio

On the Classification of Dynamical Data Streams Using Novel “Anti–Bayesian” Techniques

acceptedVersionpublishedVersionNivå2 N

Adaptive Probabilistic Forecasting of Electricity (Net-)Load

Electricity load forecasting is a necessary capability for power system operators and electricity market participants. The proliferation of local generation, demand response, and electrification of heat and transport are changing the fundamental drivers of electricity load and increasing the complexity of load modelling and forecasting. We address this challenge in two ways. First, our setting is adaptive; our models take into account the most recent observations available, yielding a forecasting strategy able to automatically respond to changes in the underlying process. Second, we consider probabilistic rather than point forecasting; indeed, uncertainty quantification is required to operate electricity systems efficiently and reliably. Our methodology relies on the Kalman filter, previously used successfully for adaptive point load forecasting. The probabilistic forecasts are obtained by quantile regressions on the residuals of the point forecasting model. We achieve adaptive quantile regressions using the online gradient descent; we avoid the choice of the gradient step size considering multiple learning rates and aggregation of experts. We apply the method to two data sets: the regional net-load in Great Britain and the demand of seven large cities in the United States. Adaptive procedures improve forecast performance substantially in both use cases for both point and probabilistic forecasting