Modeling Binary Time Series Using Gaussian Processes with Application to Predicting Sleep States

Motivated by the problem of predicting sleep states, we develop a mixed effects model for binary time series with a stochastic component represented by a Gaussian process. The fixed component captures the effects of covariates on the binary-valued response. The Gaussian process captures the residual variations in the binary response that are not explained by covariates and past realizations. We develop a frequentist modeling framework that provides efficient inference and more accurate predictions. Results demonstrate the advantages of improved prediction rates over existing approaches such as logistic regression, generalized additive mixed model, models for ordinal data, gradient boosting, decision tree and random forest. Using our proposed model, we show that previous sleep state and heart rates are significant predictors for future sleep states. Simulation studies also show that our proposed method is promising and robust. To handle computational complexity, we utilize Laplace approximation, golden section search and successive parabolic interpolation. With this paper, we also submit an R-package (HIBITS) that implements the proposed procedure.Comment: Journal of Classification (2018

Deep Convolutional Neural Networks for Interpretable Analysis of EEG Sleep Stage Scoring

Sleep studies are important for diagnosing sleep disorders such as insomnia, narcolepsy or sleep apnea. They rely on manual scoring of sleep stages from raw polisomnography signals, which is a tedious visual task requiring the workload of highly trained professionals. Consequently, research efforts to purse for an automatic stage scoring based on machine learning techniques have been carried out over the last years. In this work, we resort to multitaper spectral analysis to create visually interpretable images of sleep patterns from EEG signals as inputs to a deep convolutional network trained to solve visual recognition tasks. As a working example of transfer learning, a system able to accurately classify sleep stages in new unseen patients is presented. Evaluations in a widely-used publicly available dataset favourably compare to state-of-the-art results, while providing a framework for visual interpretation of outcomes.Comment: 8 pages, 1 figure, 2 tables, IEEE 2017 International Workshop on Machine Learning for Signal Processin

Robust, automated sleep scoring by a compact neural network with distributional shift correction.

Studying the biology of sleep requires the accurate assessment of the state of experimental subjects, and manual analysis of relevant data is a major bottleneck. Recently, deep learning applied to electroencephalogram and electromyogram data has shown great promise as a sleep scoring method, approaching the limits of inter-rater reliability. As with any machine learning algorithm, the inputs to a sleep scoring classifier are typically standardized in order to remove distributional shift caused by variability in the signal collection process. However, in scientific data, experimental manipulations introduce variability that should not be removed. For example, in sleep scoring, the fraction of time spent in each arousal state can vary between control and experimental subjects. We introduce a standardization method, mixture z-scoring, that preserves this crucial form of distributional shift. Using both a simulated experiment and mouse in vivo data, we demonstrate that a common standardization method used by state-of-the-art sleep scoring algorithms introduces systematic bias, but that mixture z-scoring does not. We present a free, open-source user interface that uses a compact neural network and mixture z-scoring to allow for rapid sleep scoring with accuracy that compares well to contemporary methods. This work provides a set of computational tools for the robust automation of sleep scoring