11,418 research outputs found
Neural network ensembles: Evaluation of aggregation algorithms
Ensembles of artificial neural networks show improved generalization
capabilities that outperform those of single networks. However, for aggregation
to be effective, the individual networks must be as accurate and diverse as
possible. An important problem is, then, how to tune the aggregate members in
order to have an optimal compromise between these two conflicting conditions.
We present here an extensive evaluation of several algorithms for ensemble
construction, including new proposals and comparing them with standard methods
in the literature. We also discuss a potential problem with sequential
aggregation algorithms: the non-frequent but damaging selection through their
heuristics of particularly bad ensemble members. We introduce modified
algorithms that cope with this problem by allowing individual weighting of
aggregate members. Our algorithms and their weighted modifications are
favorably tested against other methods in the literature, producing a sensible
improvement in performance on most of the standard statistical databases used
as benchmarks.Comment: 35 pages, 2 figures, In press AI Journa
Decentralized learning with budgeted network load using Gaussian copulas and classifier ensembles
We examine a network of learners which address the same classification task
but must learn from different data sets. The learners cannot share data but
instead share their models. Models are shared only one time so as to preserve
the network load. We introduce DELCO (standing for Decentralized Ensemble
Learning with COpulas), a new approach allowing to aggregate the predictions of
the classifiers trained by each learner. The proposed method aggregates the
base classifiers using a probabilistic model relying on Gaussian copulas.
Experiments on logistic regressor ensembles demonstrate competing accuracy and
increased robustness in case of dependent classifiers. A companion python
implementation can be downloaded at https://github.com/john-klein/DELC
Does money matter in inflation forecasting?.
This paper provides the most fully comprehensive evidence to date on whether or not monetary aggregates are valuable for forecasting US inflation in the early to mid 2000s. We explore a wide range of different definitions of money, including different methods of aggregation and different collections of included monetary assets. In our forecasting experiment we use two non-linear techniques, namely, recurrent neural networks and kernel recursive least squares regression - techniques that are new to macroeconomics. Recurrent neural networks operate with potentially unbounded input memory, while the kernel regression technique is a finite memory predictor. The two methodologies compete to find the best fitting US inflation forecasting models and are then compared to forecasts from a naive random walk model. The best models were non-linear autoregressive models based on kernel methods. Our findings do not provide much support for the usefulness of monetary aggregates in forecasting inflation
Deep learning for supervised classification
One of the most recent area in the Machine Learning research is Deep Learning. Deep Learning algorithms have been applied successfully to computer vision, automatic speech recognition, natural language processing, audio recognition and bioinformatics. The key idea of Deep Learning is to combine the best techniques from Machine Learning to build powerful generalâpurpose learning algorithms. It is a mistake to identify Deep Neural Networks with Deep Learning Algorithms. Other approaches are possible, and in this paper we illustrate a generalization of Stacking which has very competitive performances. In particular, we show an application of this approach to a real classification problem, where a three-stages Stacking has proved to be very effective
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