Non-Equilibrium Social Science and Policy: Introduction and Essays on New and Changing Paradigms in Socio-Economic Thinking

The overall aim of this book, an outcome of the European FP7 FET Open NESS project, is to contribute to the ongoing effort to put the quantitative social sciences on a proper footing for the 21st century. A key focus is economics, and its implications on policy making, where the still dominant traditional approach increasingly struggles to capture the economic realities we observe in the world today - with vested interests getting too often in the way of real advances. Insights into behavioral economics and modern computing techniques have made possible both the integration of larger information sets and the exploration of disequilibrium behavior. The domain-based chapters of this work illustrate how economic theory is the only branch of social sciences which still holds to its old paradigm of an equilibrium science - an assumption that has already been relaxed in all related fields of research in the light of recent advances in complex and dynamical systems theory and related data mining. The other chapters give various takes on policy and decision making in this context. Written in nontechnical style throughout, with a mix of tutorial and essay-like contributions, this book will benefit all researchers, scientists, professionals and practitioners interested in learning about the 'thinking in complexity' to understand how socio-economic systems really work

Research Ideas for Advances in Decision Sciences (ADS)

This note is concerned with an editorial statement of intent for Advances in Decision Sciences (ADS), which was founded in 1997, so that 2918 marks the 22nd Anniversary of the journal. The note discusses the aims and scope of ADS in Section 1, innovative topics in all fields of optimal decision making in Section 2, research areas of interest to ADS in Section 3, invitation to submit papers to ADS in Section 4, editors and members of the editorial board in Section 5, and acknowledgements in Section 6

Workflow-based Collaborative Decision Support for Flood Management Systems

AbstractSimulation-based decision making is the one of prospective applications of computational sciences which is central to advances in many scientific fields. The complexity and interdisciplinarity of scientific problems lead to the new technologies of simulation software implementation based on cloud computing, workflow tools and close interaction between experts and decision-makers. The important challenge in this field is to combine simulation scenarios, expert decisions and distributed environment to solve the complex interdisciplinary problems. In this paper, we describe a way to organize the collaborative decision support on the basis of e-Science platform CLAVIRE with the emphasis on urgency. A case study on decision making is the gates maneuvering for the flood prevention in Saint-Petersburg as a part of flood management system

The new policy sciences: combining the cognitive science of choice, multiple theories of context, and basic and applied analysis

It is time to imagine a new policy sciences. The policymaking world has moved on since its first design. So too has our understanding of it. The original policy sciences were contextualized, problem-oriented, multi-method, and focused on using scientific research towards the realization of greater human dignity. We introduce a new policy sciences that builds on such aims. We describe the need for realistic depictions of ‘rational’ and ‘irrational’ choice, multiple theories to portray the multifaceted nature of complex contexts, and the combination of applied and basic research. To set this new agenda, we build on two foundational strategies: identifying advances in the psychology of decision-making and describing how policy theories depict policymaking psychology in complex contexts

Advances in Methodology and Applications of Decision Support Systems

These Proceedings are composed of a selection of papers of the Workshop on Advances in Methodology and Applications of Decision Support Systems, organized by the System and Decision Sciences (SDS) Program of IIASA and the Japan Institute of Systems Research (JISR). The workshop was held at IIASA on August 20-22, 1990. The Methodology of Decision Analysis (MDA) Project of the SDS Program focuses on a system-analytical approach to decision support and is devoted to developing methodology, software and applications of decision support systems concentrated primarily around interactive systems for data analysis, interpretation and multiobjective decisionmaking, including uncertainty analysis and group decision making situations in both their cooperative and noncooperative aspects. The objectives of the research on decision support systems (DSS) performed in cooperation with the MDA Project are to: compare various approaches to decision support systems; advance theory and methodology of decision support; convert existing theories and methodologies into usable (simple to use, user-friendly and robust) tools that could easily be used in solving real-life problems. A principal characteristic of decision support systems is that they must be tuned to specific decision situations, to complex real-life characteristics of every application. Even if the theory and methodology of decision support is quite advanced, every application might provide impulses for further theoretical and methodological advances. Therefore the principle underlying this project is that theoretical and methodological research should be strongly connected to the implementation and applications of its results to sufficiently complicated, real-life examples. This approach results in obtaining really applicable working tools for decision support. The papers for this Proceedings have been selected according to the above summarized framework of the research activities. Therefore, the papers deal both with theoretical and methodological problems and with real-life applications

Decision-enabled dynamic process management for networked enterprises

In todays networked economy face numerous information management challenges, both from a process management perspective as well as a decision support perspective. While there have been significant relevant advances in the areas of business process management as well as decision sciences, several open research issues exist. In this paper, we highlight the following key challenges. First, current process modeling and management techniques lack in providing a seamless integration of decision models and tools in existing business processes, which is critical to achieve organizational objectives. Second, given the dynamic nature of business processes in networked enterprises, process management approaches that enable organizations to react to business process changes in an agile manner are required. Third, current state-of-the-art decision model management techniques are not particularly amenable to distributed settings in networked enterprises, which limits the sharing and reuse of models in different contexts, including their utility within managing business processes. In this paper, we present a framework for decision-enabled dynamic process management that addresses these challenges. The framework builds on computational formalisms, including the structured modeling paradigm for representing decision models, and hierarchical task networks from the artificial intelligence (AI) planning area for process modeling. Within the framework, interleaved process planning (modeling), execution and monitoring for dynamic process management throughout the process lifecycle is proposed. A service-oriented architecture combined with advances from the semantic Web field for model management support within business processes is proposed

Power-enhanced multiple decision functions controlling family-wise error and false discovery rates

Improved procedures, in terms of smaller missed discovery rates (MDR), for performing multiple hypotheses testing with weak and strong control of the family-wise error rate (FWER) or the false discovery rate (FDR) are developed and studied. The improvement over existing procedures such as the \v{S}id\'ak procedure for FWER control and the Benjamini--Hochberg (BH) procedure for FDR control is achieved by exploiting possible differences in the powers of the individual tests. Results signal the need to take into account the powers of the individual tests and to have multiple hypotheses decision functions which are not limited to simply using the individual $p$-values, as is the case, for example, with the \v{S}id\'ak, Bonferroni, or BH procedures. They also enhance understanding of the role of the powers of individual tests, or more precisely the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) functions of decision processes, in the search for better multiple hypotheses testing procedures. A decision-theoretic framework is utilized, and through auxiliary randomizers the procedures could be used with discrete or mixed-type data or with rank-based nonparametric tests. This is in contrast to existing $p$-value based procedures whose theoretical validity is contingent on each of these $p$-value statistics being stochastically equal to or greater than a standard uniform variable under the null hypothesis. Proposed procedures are relevant in the analysis of high-dimensional "large $M$, small $n$" data sets arising in the natural, physical, medical, economic and social sciences, whose generation and creation is accelerated by advances in high-throughput technology, notably, but not limited to, microarray technology.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/10-AOS844 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Interactive Decision Analysis in Energy Planning and Policy Assessment

In recent years, there has been considerable fruitful collaboration between the System and Decision Sciences (SDS) Program and the Energy Project at IIASA. This paper gives an overview of this joint work, which involves the use of methodological tools developed in SDS to analyze decision situations based on models constructed in the Energy Project. The paper starts with a study of the use of the earliest version of DIDASS in conjunction with the energy supply model MESSAGE. It then describes how construction of more advanced energy models such as MESSAGE II, SEMA (an Austrian energy model), and GATE (a model of gas trade in Europe) took place in parallel with the development of an interactive multiple-criteria LP-solver (IMM), which represents a first step towards the integration of modeling and optimization processes in the analysis of complex decision situations. We hope that such collaboration will continue to provide a driving force for advances in different areas of IIASA research