41,295 research outputs found
Modeling Financial Time Series with Artificial Neural Networks
Financial time series convey the decisions and actions of a population of human actors over time. Econometric and regressive models have been developed in the past decades for analyzing these time series. More recently, biologically inspired artificial neural network models have been shown to overcome some of the main challenges of traditional techniques by better exploiting the non-linear, non-stationary, and oscillatory nature of noisy, chaotic human interactions. This review paper explores the options, benefits, and weaknesses of the various forms of artificial neural networks as compared with regression techniques in the field of financial time series analysis.CELEST, a National Science Foundation Science of Learning Center (SBE-0354378); SyNAPSE program of the Defense Advanced Research Project Agency (HR001109-03-0001
A Comparison of Machine-Learning Methods to Select Socioeconomic Indicators in Cultural Landscapes
Cultural landscapes are regarded to be complex socioecological systems that originated as a result of the interaction between humanity and nature across time. Cultural landscapes present complex-system properties, including nonlinear dynamics among their components. There is a close relationship between socioeconomy and landscape in cultural landscapes, so that changes in the socioeconomic dynamic have an effect on the structure and functionality of the landscape. Several numerical analyses have been carried out to study this relationship, with linear regression models being widely used. However, cultural landscapes comprise a considerable amount of elements and processes, whose interactions might not be properly captured by a linear model. In recent years, machine-learning techniques have increasingly been applied to the field of ecology to solve regression tasks. These techniques provide sound methods and algorithms for dealing with complex systems under uncertainty. The term ‘machine learning’ includes a wide variety of methods to learn models from data. In this paper, we study the relationship between socioeconomy and cultural landscape (in Andalusia, Spain) at two different spatial scales aiming at comparing different regression models from a predictive-accuracy point of view, including model trees and neural or Bayesian networks
A Novel Predictive-Coding-Inspired Variational RNN Model for Online Prediction and Recognition
This study introduces PV-RNN, a novel variational RNN inspired by the
predictive-coding ideas. The model learns to extract the probabilistic
structures hidden in fluctuating temporal patterns by dynamically changing the
stochasticity of its latent states. Its architecture attempts to address two
major concerns of variational Bayes RNNs: how can latent variables learn
meaningful representations and how can the inference model transfer future
observations to the latent variables. PV-RNN does both by introducing adaptive
vectors mirroring the training data, whose values can then be adapted
differently during evaluation. Moreover, prediction errors during
backpropagation, rather than external inputs during the forward computation,
are used to convey information to the network about the external data. For
testing, we introduce error regression for predicting unseen sequences as
inspired by predictive coding that leverages those mechanisms. The model
introduces a weighting parameter, the meta-prior, to balance the optimization
pressure placed on two terms of a lower bound on the marginal likelihood of the
sequential data. We test the model on two datasets with probabilistic
structures and show that with high values of the meta-prior the network
develops deterministic chaos through which the data's randomness is imitated.
For low values, the model behaves as a random process. The network performs
best on intermediate values, and is able to capture the latent probabilistic
structure with good generalization. Analyzing the meta-prior's impact on the
network allows to precisely study the theoretical value and practical benefits
of incorporating stochastic dynamics in our model. We demonstrate better
prediction performance on a robot imitation task with our model using error
regression compared to a standard variational Bayes model lacking such a
procedure.Comment: The paper is accepted in Neural Computatio
- …