Improving adaptive bagging methods for evolving data streams

We propose two new improvements for bagging methods on evolving data streams. Recently, two new variants of Bagging were proposed: ADWIN Bagging and Adaptive-Size Hoeffding Tree (ASHT) Bagging. ASHT Bagging uses trees of different sizes, and ADWIN Bagging uses ADWIN as a change detector to decide when to discard underperforming ensemble members. We improve ADWIN Bagging using Hoeffding Adaptive Trees, trees that can adaptively learn from data streams that change over time. To speed up the time for adapting to change of Adaptive-Size Hoeffding Tree (ASHT) Bagging, we add an error change detector for each classifier. We test our improvements by performing an evaluation study on synthetic and real-world datasets comprising up to ten million examples

Applying machine learning techniques to an imperfect information game

The game of poker presents a challenging game to Artificial Intelligence researchers because it is a complex asymmetric information game. In such games, a player can improve his performance by inferring the private information held by the other players from their prior actions. A novel connectionist structure was designed to play a version of poker (multi-player limit Hold‟em). This allows simple reinforcement learning techniques to be used which previously not been considered for the game of multi-player hold‟em. A related hidden Markov model was designed to be fitted to records of poker play without using any private information. Belief vectors generated by this model provide a more convenient and flexible representation of an opponent‟s action history than alternative approaches. The structure was tested in two settings. Firstly self-play simulation was used to generate an approximation to a Nash equilibrium strategy. A related, but slower, rollout strategy that uses Monte-Carlo samples was used to evaluate the performance. Secondly the structure was used to model and hence exploit a population of opponents within a relatively small number of games. When and how to adapt quickly to new opponents are open questions in poker AI research. A opponent model with a small number of discrete types is used to identify the largest differences in strategy between members of the population. A commercial software package (Poker Academy) was used to provide a population of sophisticated opponents to test against. A series of experiments was conducted to compare adaptive and static systems. All systems showed positive results but surprisingly the adaptive systems did not show a significant improvement over similar static systems. The possible reasons for this result are discussed. This work formed the basis of a series of entries to the computer poker competition hosted at the annual conferences of the Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence (AAAI). Its best rankings were 3rd in the 2006 6-player limit hold‟em competition and 2nd in the 2008 3-player limit hold‟em competition

Simulation of a Texas Hold'Em poker player

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Multiparty Dynamics and Failure Modes for Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence

An important challenge for safety in machine learning and artificial intelligence systems is a~set of related failures involving specification gaming, reward hacking, fragility to distributional shifts, and Goodhart's or Campbell's law. This paper presents additional failure modes for interactions within multi-agent systems that are closely related. These multi-agent failure modes are more complex, more problematic, and less well understood than the single-agent case, and are also already occurring, largely unnoticed. After motivating the discussion with examples from poker-playing artificial intelligence (AI), the paper explains why these failure modes are in some senses unavoidable. Following this, the paper categorizes failure modes, provides definitions, and cites examples for each of the modes: accidental steering, coordination failures, adversarial misalignment, input spoofing and filtering, and goal co-option or direct hacking. The paper then discusses how extant literature on multi-agent AI fails to address these failure modes, and identifies work which may be useful for the mitigation of these failure modes.Comment: 12 Pages, This version re-submitted to Big Data and Cognitive Computing, Special Issue "Artificial Superintelligence: Coordination & Strategy

Solving Games with Functional Regret Estimation

We propose a novel online learning method for minimizing regret in large extensive-form games. The approach learns a function approximator online to estimate the regret for choosing a particular action. A no-regret algorithm uses these estimates in place of the true regrets to define a sequence of policies. We prove the approach sound by providing a bound relating the quality of the function approximation and regret of the algorithm. A corollary being that the method is guaranteed to converge to a Nash equilibrium in self-play so long as the regrets are ultimately realizable by the function approximator. Our technique can be understood as a principled generalization of existing work on abstraction in large games; in our work, both the abstraction as well as the equilibrium are learned during self-play. We demonstrate empirically the method achieves higher quality strategies than state-of-the-art abstraction techniques given the same resources.Comment: AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence 201

Reservoir of Diverse Adaptive Learners and Stacking Fast Hoeffding Drift Detection Methods for Evolving Data Streams

The last decade has seen a surge of interest in adaptive learning algorithms for data stream classification, with applications ranging from predicting ozone level peaks, learning stock market indicators, to detecting computer security violations. In addition, a number of methods have been developed to detect concept drifts in these streams. Consider a scenario where we have a number of classifiers with diverse learning styles and different drift detectors. Intuitively, the current 'best' (classifier, detector) pair is application dependent and may change as a result of the stream evolution. Our research builds on this observation. We introduce the \mbox{Tornado} framework that implements a reservoir of diverse classifiers, together with a variety of drift detection algorithms. In our framework, all (classifier, detector) pairs proceed, in parallel, to construct models against the evolving data streams. At any point in time, we select the pair which currently yields the best performance. We further incorporate two novel stacking-based drift detection methods, namely the \mbox{FHDDMS} and \mbox{FHDDMS}_{add} approaches. The experimental evaluation confirms that the current 'best' (classifier, detector) pair is not only heavily dependent on the characteristics of the stream, but also that this selection evolves as the stream flows. Further, our \mbox{FHDDMS} variants detect concept drifts accurately in a timely fashion while outperforming the state-of-the-art.Comment: 42 pages, and 14 figure