Gaussian process hyper-parameter estimation using parallel asymptotically independent Markov sampling

Gaussian process emulators of computationally expensive computer codes provide fast statistical approximations to model physical processes. The training of these surrogates depends on the set of design points chosen to run the simulator. Due to computational cost, such training set is bound to be limited and quantifying the resulting uncertainty in the hyper-parameters of the emulator by uni-modal distributions is likely to induce bias. In order to quantify this uncertainty, this paper proposes a computationally efficient sampler based on an extension of Asymptotically Independent Markov Sampling, a recently developed algorithm for Bayesian inference. Structural uncertainty of the emulator is obtained as a by-product of the Bayesian treatment of the hyper-parameters. Additionally, the user can choose to perform stochastic optimisation to sample from a neighbourhood of the Maximum a Posteriori estimate, even in the presence of multimodality. Model uncertainty is also acknowledged through numerical stabilisation measures by including a nugget term in the formulation of the probability model. The efficiency of the proposed sampler is illustrated in examples where multi-modal distributions are encountered. For the purpose of reproducibility, further development, and use in other applications the code used to generate the examples is freely available for download at https://github.com/agarbuno/paims_codesComment: Computational Statistics \& Data Analysis, Volume 103, November 201

Social influence and neighbourhood effects in the health care market.

This work is intended to analyze the market for health care through a computational approach based on unsupervised neural networks. The paper provides a theoretical framework for a computational model that relies on Kohonen's self organizing maps (SOM), arranged into two layers: in the upper layer the competition dynamics of health care providers is modelled, whereas in the lower level patients behaviour is monitored. Interactions take place both vertically between the layers (in a bi-directional way), and horizontally, inside each level, exploiting neighbourhood features of SOM: signals move vertically from hospitals to patients and vice-versa, but they also spread out sideward, from patient to patient, and from hospital to hospital. The result is a new approach addressing the issue of hospital behaviour and demand mechanism modelling, which conjugates a robust theoretical implementation together with an instrument of deep graphical impact.self organizing maps; health market; adaptive behaviour; incomplete information; mixed market

Place-based approaches to child and family services

This paper synthesizes the conceptual and empirical literature on place-based approaches to meeting the needs of young children and their families. A specific focus of the paper is on the potential contribution of place-based approaches to service reconfiguration and coordination. Outline The paper begins by outlining the sweeping social changes that have occurred in developed nations over the past few decades and their impact on children, families and communities. It explores the ‘joined up’ problems faced by families and communities in the contemporary world, and highlights the need to reconfigure services to support families more effectively. The paper then focuses on ‘joined up’ solutions, on what we know about how to meet the challenges posed by the complex problems that characterise our society. Next, the paper explores what a place-based approach involves, and what role it can play in supporting families with young children. The rationale underpinning place-based approaches is outlined and the evidence for the effectiveness of the approach is summarised. The paper then looks at what can be learned from efforts to implement place-based initiatives in Australia and overseas, and explores the issues that need to be addressed in implementing this strategy. The ways in which the early childhood service system might be reconfigured are also considered, and the paper ends with a consideration of the policy and implementation implications.&nbsp

Authentic ELT Material Adaptation: Drawbacks, Prevalence and Solutions: The case of Wolkite University community school, Wolkite, Ethiopia.

This paper examines the contributing issues that enhance students learning through adapting ELT materials and assessing its effectiveness forwarding to take measures. The study used both qualitative and quantitative approaches. The study was conducted a research by developing questionnaire, observation and document analysis. The data were collected from principals, teachers, students and woreda education officers. The data collected were arranged and organized for analysis and interpretation. Based on the analysed data, the study found out that limitations in the implementation of authentic material adaptation and how to use various adaptive techniques. Teachers lack of motive and interest to design and select language materials that fit the curriculum and closely correspond with the aims of the teaching program and the needs of the students. Thus, the study recommended that adapted materials should be carefully evaluated and selected before being used for a language classroo

The Impact of Urban Heat Islands: Assessing Vulnerability in Indonesia

The impacts of global change can be felt by local communities during both short-term events such as intense storms and long-term changes such as rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns. Natural disasters related to hydrometeorology are likely to increase in severity, while in coastal areas sea-level rises require serious attention. At city scale, with high levels of urbanisation, local rising temperatures can affect the quality of life of communities. Urban heat islands (UHI) reflect the magnitude of the difference in observed ambient air temperature between cities and their surrounding rural regions. This study aims to identify whether the urban heat island phenomena is occurring two cities in Indonesia: Jakarta, a large metropolitan city with a business and industrial background, and Bandar Lampung, a growing city with an agricultural background. The aim is to identify community vulnerability to UHI impacts and community adaptation efforts related to UHI. The results show that UHI is present in both Jakarta and Bandar Lampung. The UHI was clearly evident in morning temperatures in Bandar Lampung, showing that the area surrounding the city had more air moisture due to vegetation land cover, compared to the city area. In Jakarta the UHI effect was clearly visible in the afternoon, and the highest temperature was in high density settlement areas compared to the business and industrial area. Communities in both Bandar Lampung and Jakarta were assessed to have average (moderate) vulnerability levels. Bandar Lampung's moderate vulnerability level is due to low levels of community knowledge of climate change impacts and public facilities, but there were indications of adaptation in the form of natural spontaneous adaptation. Jakarta faces rising temperatures but has low adaptation levels which could be due to low levels of participation in community programmes in general

Human experience in the natural and built environment : implications for research policy and practice

22nd IAPS conference. Edited book of abstracts. 427 pp. University of Strathclyde, Sheffield and West of Scotland Publication. ISBN: 978-0-94-764988-3

Resilience in the humanitarian sphere: stimulating resilience for recovery in Haiti

Severe recovery deficits after post-disaster interventions have become the landscape seen globally. Humanitarian operations have struggled to find coherence between relief and recovery activities, which has resulted in a perceived operational gap between relief, recovery and development. This current dynamic has caused significant deficiencies within humanitarian programming, such as weak strategy, a lack of transition mechanisms, exit plans and effective recovery. A situation that stems from the current paradigm the humanitarian system operates under and the framework that has evolved around it. Supporting the development of adaptive resilience of a disaster-affected population, within the humanitarian sphere, has been theoretically posed to be fundamental for recovery; a programmatic consideration that could ensure former weak resilience would not hinder post-disaster recovery. Therefore, could a resilience building approach offer much needed solutions to the challenge of recovery within post-disaster contexts? This research aimed to understand whether resilience building within post-disaster environments could increase potential recovery of disaster affected populations and whether it is feasible to build individual/household (HH) level resilience through emergency response operations? The research looked specifically at adaptive resilience at the individual/HH level, clarifying the concept and understanding its modality in order to operationalise it within humanitarian programming. The common barriers to recovery experienced by individuals/HH in a crisis event were gauged, and the relationship between adaptive resilience and recovery determined. A unique singular case study was used to collect quantitative and qualitative data required to answer the key objectives of this research. The case study chosen was the 2010 Haiti earthquake response. Primary data was collected over a 7 months period through 37 semi-structured interviews and 31 online questionnaires with donors, government, INGOs, LNGOs and the private sector, that were operating within the Haiti response, and 18 disaster affected community members within a community discussion forum. Bringing a total participation of 86 individuals and organisations. An in-depth case study was developed in order to offer an evidence base for the proposed theory, that supporting adaptive resilience through emergency response programming has the ability to stimulate recovery. A new data collection tool was trialed within the community discussion forum, namely the Sociogram. This tool looked to assess the main components of adaptive resilience. Methodological rigour was introduced through the use of methodological and data triangulation to ensure validity and reliability of the research. The research successfully identified the main barriers to recovery, pinpointed the key components for adaptive resilience and the influence of emergency programming on the development of adaptive resilience, establishing the relationship between them. The role emergency response operations can play in the development of adaptive resilience was then explored. It has been demonstrated that to ensure recovery and allow for a more resilient society to evolve, adaptive resilience needs to be and can be supported and developed within emergency response operations. The research has been able to demonstrate, through the analysis of the Shelter and WASH response undertaken in Haiti, that developing resilience in the post-disaster environment is possible and an approach that is able to improve strategy within emergency response operations. Improvements would be seen in the provision of essential services within the response, a substantial increase in transitional and exit options and an increased capacity to proactively stimulate rapid recovery. This strategic approach to emergency response programming has the ability to offer the coherence needed between relief, recovery and development. Determining that a resilience building approach within emergency response operations could be the missing link or resolution to the perceived operational gap between relief, recovery and development. Pursuing a resilience building approach has the potential to bring much needed cultural change within the humanitarian sector that will shape operations for a more strategic and successful future

Techniques for clustering gene expression data

Many clustering techniques have been proposed for the analysis of gene expression data obtained from microarray experiments. However, choice of suitable method(s) for a given experimental dataset is not straightforward. Common approaches do not translate well and fail to take account of the data profile. This review paper surveys state of the art applications which recognises these limitations and implements procedures to overcome them. It provides a framework for the evaluation of clustering in gene expression analyses. The nature of microarray data is discussed briefly. Selected examples are presented for the clustering methods considered