Cold-Start Collaborative Filtering

Collaborative Filtering (CF) is a technique to generate personalised recommendations for a user from a collection of correlated preferences in the past. In general, the effectiveness of CF greatly depends on the amount of available information about the target user and the target item. The cold-start problem, which describes the difficulty of making recommendations when the users or the items are new, remains a great challenge for CF. Traditionally, this problem is tackled by resorting to an additional interview process to establish the user (item) profile before making any recommendations. During this process the user’s information need is not addressed. In this thesis, however, we argue that recommendations would be preferably provided right from the beginning. And the goal of solving the cold-start problem should be maximising the overall recommendation utility during all interactions with the recommender system. In other words, we should not distinguish between the information-gathering and recommendation-making phases, but seamlessly integrate them together. This mechanism naturally addresses the cold-start problem as any user (item) can immediately receive sequential recommendations without providing extra information beforehand. This thesis solves the cold-start problem in an interactive setting by focusing on four interconnected aspects. First, we consider a continuous sequential recommendation process with CF and relate it to the exploitation-exploration (EE) trade-off. By employing probabilistic matrix factorization, we obtain a structured decision space and are thus able to leverage several EE algorithms, such as Thompson sampling and upper confidence bounds, to select items. Second, we extend the sequential recommendation process to a batch mode where multiple recommendations are made at each interaction stage. We specifically discuss the case of two consecutive interaction stages, and model it with the partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) to obtain its exact theoretical solution. Through an in-depth analysis of the POMDP value iteration solution, we identify that an exact solution can be abstracted as selecting users (items) that are not only highly relevant to the target according to the initial-stage information, but also highly correlated with other potential users (items) for the next stage. Third, we consider the intra-stage recommendation optimisation and focus on the problem of personalised item diversification. We reformulate the latent factor models using the mean-variance analysis from the portfolio theory in economics. The resulting portfolio ranking algorithm naturally captures the user’s interest range and the uncertainty of the user preference by employing the variance of the learned user latent factors, leading to a diversified item list adapted to the individual user. And, finally, we relate the diversification algorithm back to the interactive process by considering inter-stage joint portfolio diversification, where the recommendations are optimised jointly with the user’s past preference records

A Theoretical Analysis of Two-Stage Recommendation for Cold-Start Collaborative Filtering

In this paper, we present a theoretical framework for tackling the cold-start collaborative filtering problem, where unknown targets (items or users) keep coming to the system, and there is a limited number of resources (users or items) that can be allocated and related to them. The solution requires a trade-off between exploitation and exploration as with the limited recommendation opportunities, we need to, on one hand, allocate the most relevant resources right away, but, on the other hand, it is also necessary to allocate resources that are useful for learning the target's properties in order to recommend more relevant ones in the future. In this paper, we study a simple two-stage recommendation combining a sequential and a batch solution together. We first model the problem with the partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) and provide an exact solution. Then, through an in-depth analysis over the POMDP value iteration solution, we identify that an exact solution can be abstracted as selecting resources that are not only highly relevant to the target according to the initial-stage information, but also highly correlated, either positively or negatively, with other potential resources for the next stage. With this finding, we propose an approximate solution to ease the intractability of the exact solution. Our initial results on synthetic data and the Movie Lens 100K dataset confirm the performance gains of our theoretical development and analysis

Managing Risk of Bidding in Display Advertising

In this paper, we deal with the uncertainty of bidding for display advertising. Similar to the financial market trading, real-time bidding (RTB) based display advertising employs an auction mechanism to automate the impression level media buying; and running a campaign is no different than an investment of acquiring new customers in return for obtaining additional converted sales. Thus, how to optimally bid on an ad impression to drive the profit and return-on-investment becomes essential. However, the large randomness of the user behaviors and the cost uncertainty caused by the auction competition may result in a significant risk from the campaign performance estimation. In this paper, we explicitly model the uncertainty of user click-through rate estimation and auction competition to capture the risk. We borrow an idea from finance and derive the value at risk for each ad display opportunity. Our formulation results in two risk-aware bidding strategies that penalize risky ad impressions and focus more on the ones with higher expected return and lower risk. The empirical study on real-world data demonstrates the effectiveness of our proposed risk-aware bidding strategies: yielding profit gains of 15.4% in offline experiments and up to 17.5% in an online A/B test on a commercial RTB platform over the widely applied bidding strategies

Learning and Confirmation Bias: Measuring the Impact of First Impressions and Ambiguous Signals

We quantify the widespread and significant economic impact of first impressions and confirmation bias in the financial advice market. We use a theoretical learning model and new experimental data to measure how these biases can evolve over time and change clients’ willingness to pay advisers. Our model demonstrates that clients’ confirmation bias will reinforce the effect of first impressions. Our results also lend support, in a new financial context, to theoretical models of learning under limited memory where people use unclear signals to confirm and reinforce their current beliefs. We find that almost two thirds of the participants in our experiment make choices that are consistent with a limited memory updating process: they interpret unclear advice to be good advice when it comes from the adviser they prefer. Our results show that models that account for behavioral factorssuch as confirmation bias may be needed to explain some financial decisions

ISBIS 2016: Meeting on Statistics in Business and Industry

This Book includes the abstracts of the talks presented at the 2016 International Symposium on Business and Industrial Statistics, held at Barcelona, June 8-10, 2016, hosted at the Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya - Barcelona TECH, by the Department of Statistics and Operations Research. The location of the meeting was at ETSEIB Building (Escola Tecnica Superior d'Enginyeria Industrial) at Avda Diagonal 647. The meeting organizers celebrated the continued success of ISBIS and ENBIS society, and the meeting draw together the international community of statisticians, both academics and industry professionals, who share the goal of making statistics the foundation for decision making in business and related applications. The Scientific Program Committee was constituted by: David Banks, Duke University Amílcar Oliveira, DCeT - Universidade Aberta and CEAUL Teresa A. Oliveira, DCeT - Universidade Aberta and CEAUL Nalini Ravishankar, University of Connecticut Xavier Tort Martorell, Universitat Politécnica de Catalunya, Barcelona TECH Martina Vandebroek, KU Leuven Vincenzo Esposito Vinzi, ESSEC Business Schoo

Economic Complexity Unfolded: Interpretable Model for the Productive Structure of Economies

Economic complexity reflects the amount of knowledge that is embedded in the productive structure of an economy. It resides on the premise of hidden capabilities - fundamental endowments underlying the productive structure. In general, measuring the capabilities behind economic complexity directly is difficult, and indirect measures have been suggested which exploit the fact that the presence of the capabilities is expressed in a country's mix of products. We complement these studies by introducing a probabilistic framework which leverages Bayesian non-parametric techniques to extract the dominant features behind the comparative advantage in exported products. Based on economic evidence and trade data, we place a restricted Indian Buffet Process on the distribution of countries' capability endowment, appealing to a culinary metaphor to model the process of capability acquisition. The approach comes with a unique level of interpretability, as it produces a concise and economically plausible description of the instantiated capabilities

On Unexpectedness in Recommender Systems: Or How to Better Expect the Unexpected

Although the broad social and business success of recommender systems has been achieved across several domains, there is still a long way to go in terms of user satisfaction. One of the key dimensions for significant improvement is the concept of unexpectedness. In this paper, we propose a method to improve user satisfaction by generating unexpected recommendations based on the utility theory of economics. In particular, we propose a new concept of unexpectedness as recommending to users those items that depart from what they expect from the system. We define and formalize the concept of unexpectedness and discuss how it differs from the related notions of novelty, serendipity, and diversity. Besides, we suggest several mechanisms for specifying the users’ expectations and propose specific performance metrics to measure the unexpectedness of recommendation lists.We also take into consideration the quality of recommendations using certain utility functions and present an algorithm for providing the users with unexpected recommendations of high quality that are hard to discover but fairly match their interests. Finally, we conduct several experiments on “real-world” data sets to compare our recommendation results with some other standard baseline methods. The proposed approach outperforms these baseline methods in terms of unexpectedness and other important metrics, such as coverage and aggregate diversity, while avoiding any accuracy loss