Adapting and Mitigating to Climate Change: Balancing the Choice under Uncertainty

Nowadays, as stressed by important strategic documents like for instance the 2009 EU White Paper on Adaptation or the recent 2009 “Copenhagen Accord”, it is amply recognized that both mitigation and adaptation strategies are necessary to combat climate change. This paper enriches the rapidly expanding literature trying to devise normative indications on the optimal combination of the two introducing the role of catastrophic and spatial uncertainty related to climate change damages. Applying a modified version of the Nordhaus’ Regional Dynamic Integrated Model of Climate and the Economy it is shown that in both cases uncertainty works in the direction to make mitigation a more attractive strategy than adaptation. When catastrophic uncertainty is concerned mitigation becomes relatively more important as, by curbing emissions, it helps to reduce temperature increase and hence the probability of the occurrence of the event. Adaptation on the contrary has no impact on this. It is also shown that optimal mitigation responses are much less sensitive than adaptation responses to spatial uncertainty. Mitigation responds to global damages, while adaptation to local damages. The first, being aggregated, change less than the second in the presence of spatial uncertainty as higher expected losses in some regions are compensated by lower expected losses in other. Accordingly, mitigation changes less than adaptation. Thus if it cannot be really claimed that spatial uncertainty increases the weight of mitigation respect to that of adaptation, however its presence makes mitigation a “safer” or more robust strategy to a policy decision maker than adaptation.Climate Change, Mitigation, Adaptation, Uncertainty, Integrated Assessment Model

Learning and climate change

Learning – i.e. the acquisition of new information that leads to changes in our assessment of uncertainty – plays a prominent role in the international climate policy debate. For example, the view that we should postpone actions until we know more continues to be influential. The latest work on learning and climate change includes new theoretical models, better informed simulations of how learning affects the optimal timing of emissions reductions, analyses of how new information could affect the prospects for reaching and maintaining political agreements and for adapting to climate change, and explorations of how learning could lead us astray rather than closer to the truth. Despite the diversity of this new work, a clear consensus on a central point is that the prospect of learning does not support the postponement of emissions reductions today.Learning; Uncertainty; Climate change; Decision analysis

Adapting natural resource management to climate change on the Olympic Peninsula

Climate change presents a major challenge to natural resource managers both because of the magnitude of potential effects of climate change on ecosystem structure, process, and function, and because of the uncertainty associated with those potential ecological effects. Concrete ways to adapt to climate change are needed to help natural resource managers take the first steps to incorporate climate change into management and take advantage of opportunities to balance the negative effects of climate change. We initiated a climate change adaptation case study at Olympic National Forest and Olympic National Park to determine how to adapt management of federal lands on the Olympic Peninsula to climate change. As a part of the case study process, we conducted a vulnerability assessment that involved a review of available climate model projections to determine likely levels of exposure to climate change on the Olympic Peninsula, and a review of relevant literature and available effects model projections to identify likely climate change sensitivities in each of four focus areas on the Olympic Peninsula, including hydrology and roads, fish, vegetation, and wildlife. We also identified management constraints at the forest and park to evaluate some aspects of institutional capacity to implement adaptive actions. The vulnerability assessment process set the stage for development of adaptation options through scientist-manager workshops. 

The case study process produced concrete adaptation options for Olympic National Forest and Park and illustrated the utility of place-based vulnerability assessments and scientist-manager workshops in adapting to climate change. A key finding of the assessment was that the current general management at the forest and park, with restoration as a primary goal, is consistent with managing for resilience to prepare ecosystems for a changing climate. However, the effort highlighted some potential issues related to climate change that challenge current precepts and management guidelines, and helped to identify new potential actions, and actions that could be increased and re-prioritized. For example, the case study process identified numerous ways to maintain ecosystem function and biodiversity, and increase resilience to climate change. However, the looming questions of when to consider assisted migration or when and how to redefine exotic species remain for discussion. Although questions remain, the case study process was an essential first step for Olympic National Forest and Olympic National Park in preparing for climate change. The process used and ideas produced can be used to help other natural resource managers in adapting to climate change. 
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Adaptation to Climate Change: Do Not Count on Climate Scientists to Do Your Work

Many decisions concerning long-lived investments need to take into account climate change. But doing so is not easy for at least two reasons. First, due to the rate of climate change, new infrastructure will have to be able to cope with a large range of changing climate conditions, which will make design more difficult and construction more expensive. Second, uncertainty in future climate makes it impossible to directly use climate model outputs as inputs for infrastructure design, and there are good reasons to think that the needed climate information will not be available soon. Instead of optimizing based on the climate conditions projected by models, therefore, future infrastructure should be made robust to most possible changes in climate conditions. This aim implies that users of climate information must also change their practices and decision-making frameworks, for instance by adapting the uncertainty-management methods they currently apply to exchange rates or R&D outcomes. Five methods are examined: (i) introducing long-term prospective exercises; (ii) selecting 'no-regret' strategies; (iii) favouring reversible options; (iv) reducing decision time horizons; and (v) promoting soft adaptation strategies. I argue that adaptation strategies should not be assessed in an isolated context. In particular, it is essential to consider both negative and positive side-effects, including possible changes in future energy costs.

Book review: adapting to climate uncertainty in African agriculture: narratives and knowledge politics by Stephen Whitfield

In Adapting to Climate Uncertainty in African Agriculture: Narratives and Knowledge Politics, Stephen Whitfield addresses the pressing issues of smallholder adaptation to climate change and the ‘green revolution’ in Africa, and illustrates how knowledge politics is shaping agronomic development across the continent. This timely volume invites readers to think more critically about the institutional norms behind the scientific research influencing development narratives, writes Remy Bargout

Resiliency Guide, Version 5.0

Nonprofits that are intentional about cultivating organizational resilience are better at anticipating and adapting to the disruption, uncertainty, and significant change that are a constant in our world. There is no one recipe for resilience. Context matters -- a lot. And, adapting to disruption and uncertainty will never be a linear journey. Resilience is a way of being, not an endpoint. This is a reality many nonprofits know well. However, it's less readily acknowledged by funders and, even less, a topic for open discussion among funders and their grantees.The Resiliency Guide is designed to help funders and nonprofits engage in candid dialogue about the complex, turbulent environments nonprofits operate in, and to reflect on organizational strengths as well as areas that may benefit from attention. As a tool for grantmakers, it can help deepen thinking about where, when, and how to invest in capacity building

Institutional governance barriers for the development and implementation of climate adaptation strategies

Abstract In this paper we summarise the main social barriers to adaptation presented in climate literature – the inherent uncertainty of climate change, fragmentation, institutional voids, short term horizon of politicians and policies, and the motives and willingness to start adapting. We have linked these topics to theories in public administration to explore if there is interesting overlap that could be beneficial for our understanding of institutional governance barriers for developing and implementing adaptation strategies. We conclude that there are strong interdependencies between what has been signalled in adaptation literature as barriers to adaptation and what has been theorised in public administration literature. However, barriers in the development of adaptation have been hardly discussed in climate adaptation literature. Therefore we argue that in order to understand factors that stagnate the development and implementation of adaptation policy strategies, existing theories of public administration could prove very valuable. Keywords; barriers; adaptation strategies; institutions; governance

Farming profitably in a changing climate: a risk management approach

Climate science has made enormous progress over the last two decades in understanding the nature of earth's climate and the changes that are taking place. Under climate change projections, we can say with some confidence that the Australian climate will continue to become hotter, and temperature-related extreme events are likely to increase in frequency. However, we cannot yet project with any reasonable level of confidence changes to rainfall and the occurrence of drought. So although there is strong evidence for the reality of climate change, there is still considerable uncertainty associated with projections of precisely how climate change will unfold in the future, particularly at regional and local scales where most farming management decisions are made. Adapting to such an uncertain future demands a flexible approach based on assessing, analysing and responding to the risks posed by a changing climate. This paper examines a risk management approach to farming in a variable and changing climate, based on experience gained in the insurance industry which is one of the first major industries to be impacted by climate change losses. Governments, businesses and individuals must consider the implications of a variable and changing climate as a normal part of decision-making based on risk, just as they would for other risks, such as market price and fuel price movements, labour costs etc. The paper also discusses briefly how advances in information technology have enabled information to be accessed and widely distributed, and showcases four best practice spatial IT website tools developed by the BRS to assist farmers and policy makers to manage risk - the National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS), the Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA) Rainfall to Pasture Growth Outlook Tool, the Multi-Criteria Analysis Shell (MCAS-S), and the Rainfall Reliability Wizard. There are also several tools under current development in BRS which continue with this theme. These are Water 2010 - National Water Balance and Information for Policy and Planning, the Climate Change Wizard and Climate Change Impacted Data Sets.Climate change, risk management, Environmental Economics and Policy, Risk and Uncertainty,

Identifying trades tutors' and institutions' perceptions of tutors' roles within the ITP sector : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Education in Adult Education at Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand

Since 1984 tertiary education institutions have been subject to progressive and far-reaching change. Much of this change has been shaped by neo-liberalist agendas which espouse accountability, efficiency, responsiveness, professionalism and managerialism. This thesis looks at how these themes have shaped or influenced managerial and tutorial perceptions of tutors' operational roles, responsibilities and performance within a selection of contemporary Institutes of Technology and Polytechnics (ITP) teaching environments. Analysis of the research identifies that scant or poorly prepared institutional documentation around tutorial roles and responsibilities has contributed to uncertainty or confusion, and consequently to individuals adapting their teaching roles to suit themselves. It has also been identified that managers appointed to the pivotal role of Head of School are stretched in their ability to cope with the demands that are placed on them. This thesis suggests that the increasing responsibilities they carry for managing tutorial staff have contributed to a breakdown in workload planning and performance management processes. Managers acknowledge that further work needs to be done in defining tutors' roles, responsibilities and performance. But such work presupposes the question: how do managers and tutors perceive tutorial roles in today's ITP teaching environment? Research on this key question and associated issues provides the basis for this thesis

Systems Practice: How to Act in a Climate-Change World

It is now accepted that humans are changing the climate of the Earth and this is the most compelling amongst a long litany of reasons as to why, collectively, we have to change our ways of thinking and acting. Most people now recognise that we have to be capable of adapting quickly as new and uncertain circumstances emerge: this capability will need to exist at personal, group, community, regional, national and international levels, all at the same time. Systems Practice is structured into four parts. Part I introduces the societal need to move towards a more systemic and adaptive governance against the backdrop of human-induced climate change. Part II unpacks what is involved in systems practice by means of a juggler metaphor; examining situations where systems thinking offers useful understanding and opportunities for change. Part III identifies the main factors that constrain the uptake of systems practice and makes the case for innovation in practice by means of systemic inquiry, systemic action research and systemic intervention. The book concludes with Part IV, which critically examines how systems practice is, or might be, utilised at different levels from the personal to the societal. The development of our capabilities to think and act systemically is an urgent priority and Systems Practice aims to show how to do systems thinking and translate that thinking into praxis (theory informed practical action) which will be welcomed by those managing in situations of complexity and uncertainty across all domains of professional and personal concern