SAFE MANAGEMENT OR DISRUPTIVE CHANGE?

Change is imperative for organizations which will remain thriving but its necessity is not always neatly perceived by those who are immersed into the daily activity; indeed, the cycle duration of change often lasts much longer than the time you practise in the same organization. To be more clear-sighted, you have to look the situation with enough loftiness and even some "obliquity". This states the problem of managing those organizations: on one hand, you have to ensure safe management as in performance-driven ones, on the other hand, you have to facilitate innovation as in adaptation-driven ones.The difficulty of this exercise lies in the difference between the two kinds of governance required

A Structural Land-Use Analysis of Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change: A Proactive Approach

This article proposes a proactive approach for analyzing agricultural adaptation to climate change based on a structural land-use model wherein farmers maximize profit by allocating their land between crop-technology bundles. The profitability of the bundles is a function of four technological attributes via which climate variables‟ effect is channeled: yield potential; input requirements; yields' sensitivity to input use; and farm-level management costs. Proactive adaptation measures are derived by identifying the technological attributes via which climate variables reduce overall agricultural profitability, despite adaptation by land reallocation among bundles. By applying the model to Israel, we find that long-term losses stem from yield potential reductions driven by forecasted increases in temperature, implying that adaptation efforts should target more heat-tolerant crop varieties and technologies.adaptation, agricultural land use, climate change, crop-technology bundles, Land Economics/Use,

Five feet high and rising : cities and flooding in the 21st century

Urban flooding is an increasingly important issue. Disaster statistics appear to show flood events are becoming more frequent, with medium-scale events increasing fastest. The impact of flooding is driven by a combination of natural and human-induced factors. As recent flood events in Pakistan, Brazil, Sri Lanka and Australia show, floods can occur in widespread locations and can sometimes overwhelm even the best prepared countries and cities. There are known and tested measures for urban flood risk management, typically classified as structural or engineered measures, and non-structural, management techniques. A combination of measures to form an integrated management approach is most likely to be successful in reducing flood risk. In the short term and for developing countries in particular, the factors affecting exposure and vulnerability are increasing at the fastest rate as urbanization puts more people and more assets at risk. In the longer term, however, climate scenarios are likely to be one of the most important drivers of future changes in flood risk. Due to the large uncertainties in projections of climate change, adaptation to the changing risk needs to be flexible to a wide range of future scenarios and to be able to cope with potentially large changes in sea level, rainfall intensity and snowmelt. Climate uncertainty and budgetary, institutional and practical constraints are likely to lead to a combining of structural and non-structural measures for urban flood risk management, and arguably, to a move away from what is sometimes an over-reliance on hard-engineered defenses and toward more adaptable and incremental non-structural solutions.Hazard Risk Management,Wetlands,Natural Disasters,Adaptation to Climate Change,Climate Change Impacts

Review of Climate Change and Its Effect on Nigeria Ecosystem

This paper examines the issue of climate change and its impact on the environment. The effects of man’s activities as well as those of natural phenomena on global warming, climate change and the environment are presented and discussed. The options that are available as response to global warming: mitigation, adaptation and possible human suffering as consequences of what cannot be avoided by mitigation and adaptation are presented. An overview of the Nigerian environment, preparedness for the impact of global warming and related problems are also presented. The status of environmental data and the need for environmental baseline survey and the creation of a comprehensive database for the country driven by geographical information system are presented and discussed. The paper then underscores the need for governments at all levels to adequately fund geo information production and cultivate the culture of its usage for adequate and proactive response to global warming, sustainable environmental management and national development. Keywords: climate change,mitigation, adaptation,global warming,environmental management

Joining the dots: hydrology, freshwater ecosystem values and adaptation options

AbstractThe objective of this research was to investigate and test the necessary steps in developing an adaptation planning framework for freshwater biodiversity. We used Tasmania as a test case to demonstrate how downscaled climate model outputs could be integrated with spatially resolved hydrological models and freshwater biodiversity data. This enabled us to scope adaptation actions at local, regional and state scales for Tasmania, and to explore how priorities might be set.To achieve this integration we quantified how different climate change scenarios could affect the risks to biodiversity and ecosystem values (‘biodiversity assets’) in freshwaters, the scope and types of adaptation actions, and assessed the strengths and weaknesses of the policy and planning instruments in responding to climate change.We concluded that downscaled climate modelling, linked with modelling of catchment and hydrological processes, refines projections for climate-driven risks to aquatic environments. Spatial and temporal hazards and risks can now be compared at a variety of scales, as well as comparisons between biodiversity assets (e.g. relative risk to riparian vegetation v. in-stream biota). Uncertainties can be identified and built into adaptation processes. Notwithstanding this progress, we identified a number of issues that need to be addressed in order to increase confidence in this process.The main issues for improved and timely modelling are: frameworks for using and downscaling outputs from improved global climate models as they become available; better data on thermal tolerances of freshwater biota; and, improved methods for predicting key water temperature variables from air temperature and other biophysical predictors. Improvements are also needed in updating and maintaining high quality biodiversity data sets, and better spatially explicit information on the contributions of groundwater to surface waters and rates of recharge.The list of adaptation options available is extensive, but the key challenge is to organise these options so that stakeholders are not overwhelmed. Scenario modelling that incorporates explicit tools for comparing costs, benefits, feasibility and social acceptability should help with setting priorities but require further development.A review of current Australian policies revealed a variety of responses driven by both water reform and climate change agendas. Many agencies are actively revising their policies to accommodate adaptation. However, we note that much of the reform of the water sector in the last 10–15 years has aimed to improve certainty for non-environmental water uses. Under the National Water Initiative, governments have agreed that entitlement holders should bear the risks of reduced volumes or reliability of their water allocations as a result of changes in climate. The key opportunity for adaptive uptake of climate adaptations is by developing and periodically reviewing water management planning tools. Pathways need to be developed for integrating the traditional evolution of planning and policy with the needs for climate change adaptation for aquatic ecosystems. Formal mechanisms for the uptake of knowledge about identified risks into policy and legislative instruments remain under-developed. An even bigger challenge is to integrate multiple adaptation strategies (sometimes at different scales) to achieve specific adaptation objectives within regions or catchments—especially where a mix of water management and non-water management is required

Adaptation to climate extremes in developing countries : the role of education

Global climate models predict a rise in extreme weather in the next century. To better understand future interactions among adaptation costs, socioeconomic development, and climate change in developing countries, observed losses of life from floods and droughts during 1960-2003 are modeled using three determinants: weather events, income per capita, and female education. The analysis reveals countries with high female education weathered extreme weather events better than countries with equivalent income and weather conditions. In that case, one would expect resilience to increase with economic growth and improvements in education. The relationship between resilience in the face of extreme weather events and increases in female education expenditure holds when socioeconomic development continues but the climate does not change, and socioeconomic development continues with weather paths driven by"wet"and"dry"Global Climate Models. Educating young women may be one of the best climate change disaster prevention investments in addition to high social rates of return in overall sustainable development goals.Hazard Risk Management,Population Policies,Climate Change Economics,Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases,Climate Change Impacts

Managing systemic risk in emergency management, organizational resilience and climate change adaptation

Purpose This paper applies the theory of cascading, interconnected and compound risk to the practice of preparing for, managing, and responding to threats and hazards. Our goal is to propose a consistent approach for managing major risk in urban systems by bringing together emergency management, organisational resilience, and climate change adaptation. Design/methodology/approach We develop a theory-building process using an example from the work of the Greater London Authority in the United Kingdom. First, we explore how emergency management approaches systemic risk, including examples from of exercises, contingency plans and responses to complex incidents. Secondly, we analyse how systemic risk is integrated into strategies and practices of climate change adaptation. Thirdly, we consider organisational resilience as a cross cutting element between the approaches. Findings London has long been a champion of resilience strategies for dealing with systemic risk. However, this paper highlights a potential for integrating better the understanding of common points of failure in society and organisations, especially where they relate to interconnected domains and where they are driven by climate change. Originality/value The paper suggests shifting toward the concept of operational continuity to address systemic risk and gaps between Emergency Management, Organizational Resilience and Climate Change Adaptation

Climate change adaptation planning and cross-sectoral policy coherence in southern Africa

The post-2015 development agenda requires policy coherence, where achievement of development goals in one sector does not undermine the achievement of the goals of another. It also recognises that cross-cutting issues like adaptation to climate change need to be mainstreamed across multiple sectors. This paper presents a policy analysis using the cases of Malawi, Tanzania and Zambia. It analyses the water management and agricultural strategies and approaches identified in a variety of policies and plans. These include national sector policies for water and agriculture, National Development Plans, and climate change policies and strategies, including National Adaptation Programmes of Action and the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions submitted prior to the 2015 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Conference of the Parties. It assesses the extent to which policies are coherent with one another with regard to their treatment of climate change adaptation using Qualitative Document Analysis. Findings identify that sector policies show some degree of cross-thematic coherence, in particular around their acknowledgement of the importance to address disaster management of floods and droughts. However, policy statements are typified by a relative lack of recognition of the need to develop supporting instruments and strategies that address climate adaptation needs over longer timeframes. Climate change policies explicitly call for significant investment in adaptation from the international community. Where coherence between sector and climate policies and strategies is strongest, the more recent climate policies largely repackage existing sectoral policy statements. These findings can be understood in the context of the uncertainty of climate change impacts for the longer term (for which a wider variety of adaptations are identified), alongside more event-driven disaster management planning where the impacts are more immediate and obviously evident. This prioritisation is also linked to development needs and the short-term nature of political cycles and economic gain. For climate-resilient policy decision-making to make further headway, we argue that governments need to embrace cross-sectoral planning more pro- actively in order to foster greater policy coherence and to deliver more climate resilient agriculture and water management

Assessing Future Flood Risk and Developing Integrated Flood Risk Management Strategies: A Case Study from the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment

As Earth’s climate changes, individual nations must develop adaptation plans to respond to increasing or new climate risks. This study focuses on changing flood risk in England, UK, and examines the policy framework and actions that underpin England’s adaptation from a flood risk management (FRM) perspective. Specifically, the flood risk projections that fed into the UK’s Climate Change Risk Assessment were analysed alongside newly developed FRM adaptation portfolios that modified the flood risk projections to identify the potential of different measures to reduce Expected Annual Damages (EAD). The key findings indicate that: the range of EAD for all flood sources combined is projected to increase by 18–160% by the 2080s depending on the climate change, population growth and adaptation assumptions applied; adopting an enhanced adaptation approach presents an opportunity to manage much of the climate driven change in flood risk, particularly from river flooding; EAD from coastal flood risk shows the greatest increase relative to present day; and surface water flooding will become an increasingly more significant source of flood risk. Interpretation of the results in the context of the policy framework shows how greater coordination and integration of risk managers and interventions is required to improve adaptation planning

Climate change impact and vulnerability assessment of forests in the Indian Western Himalayan region: A case study of Himachal Pradesh, India

AbstractClimate change impact and vulnerability assessment at state and regional levels is necessary to develop adaptation strategies for forests in the biogeographically vital Himalayan region. The present study assesses forest ecosystem vulnerability to climate change across Himachal Pradesh and presents the priority districts for vulnerability reduction under ‘current climate’ and ‘future climate’ scenarios. Vulnerability of forests under ‘current climate’ scenario is assessed by adopting indicator-based approach, while the vulnerability under ‘future climate’ scenario is assessed using climate and vegetation impact models. Based on the vulnerability index estimated to present the vulnerability of forests under current and projected climate change impacts representing climate driven vulnerability, five districts – Chamba, Kangra, Kullu, Mandi and Shimla are identified as priority forest districts for adaptation planning. Identifying vulnerable forest districts and forests will help policy makers and forest managers to prioritize resource allocation and forest management interventions, to restore health and productivity of forests and to build long-term resilience to climate change