Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data such as social media and search queries are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: access logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with $r^2$ up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.Comment: 27 pages; 4 figures; 4 tables. Version 2: Cite McIver & Brownstein and adjust novelty claims accordingly; revise title; various revisions for clarit

POWER QUALITY CONTROL AND COMMON-MODE NOISE MITIGATION FOR INVERTERS IN ELECTRIC VEHICLES

Inverters are widely utilized in electric vehicle (EV) applications as a major voltage/current source for onboard battery chargers (OBC) and motor drive systems. The inverter performance is critical to the efficiency of EV system energy conversion and electronics system electro-magnetic interference (EMI) design. However, for AC systems, the bandwidth requirement is usually low compared with DC systems, and the control impact on the inverter differential-mode (DM) and common-mode (CM) performance are not well investigated. With the wide-band gap (WBG) device era, the switching capability of power electronics devices drastically improved. The DM/CM impact that was brought by the WBG device-based inverter becomes more serious and has not been completely understood. This thesis provides an in-depth analysis of on-board inverter control strategies and the corresponding DM/CM impact on the EV system. The OBC inverter control under vehicle-to-load (V2L) mode will be documented first. A virtual resistance damping method minimizes the nonlinear load harmonics, and a neutral balancing method regulates the unbalanced load impact through the fourth leg. In the motor drive system, a generalized CM voltage analytical model and a current ripple prediction model are built for understanding the system CM and DM stress with respect to different modulation methods, covering both 2-level and 3-level topologies. A novel CM EMI damping modulation scheme is proposed for 6-phase inverter applications. The performance comparison between the proposed methods and the conventional solution is carried out. Each topic is supported by the corresponding hardware platform and experimental validation

The role of data in model building and prediction: a survey through examples

The goal of Science is to understand phenomena and systems in order to predict their development and gain control over them. In the scientific process of knowledge elaboration, a crucial role is played by models which, in the language of quantitative sciences, mean abstract mathematical or algorithmical representations. This short review discusses a few key examples from Physics, taken from dynamical systems theory, biophysics, and statistical mechanics, representing three paradigmatic procedures to build models and predictions from available data. In the case of dynamical systems we show how predictions can be obtained in a virtually model-free framework using the methods of analogues, and we briefly discuss other approaches based on machine learning methods. In cases where the complexity of systems is challenging, like in biophysics, we stress the necessity to include part of the empirical knowledge in the models to gain the minimal amount of realism. Finally, we consider many body systems where many (temporal or spatial) scales are at play-and show how to derive from data a dimensional reduction in terms of a Langevin dynamics for their slow components

Aeronautical Engineering: A continuing bibliography, supplement 120

This bibliography contains abstracts for 297 reports, articles, and other documents introduced into the NASA scientific and technical information system in February 1980

Time domain analysis of switching transient fields in high voltage substations

Switching operations of circuit breakers and disconnect switches generate transient currents propagating along the substation busbars. At the moment of switching, the busbars temporarily acts as antennae radiating transient electromagnetic fields within the substations. The radiated fields may interfere and disrupt normal operations of electronic equipment used within the substation for measurement, control and communication purposes. Hence there is the need to fully characterise the substation electromagnetic environment as early as the design stage of substation planning and operation to ensure safe operations of the electronic equipment. This paper deals with the computation of transient electromagnetic fields due to switching within a high voltage air-insulated substation (AIS) using the finite difference time domain (FDTD) metho

Spatial-temporal forecasting the sunspot diagram

We attempt to forecast the Sun's sunspot butterfly diagram in both space (i.e. in latitude) and time, instead of the usual one-dimensional time series forecasts prevalent in the scientific literature. We use a prediction method based on the non-linear embedding of data series in high dimensions. We use this method to forecast both in latitude (space) and in time, using a full spatial-temporal series of the sunspot diagram from 1874 to 2015. The analysis of the results shows that it is indeed possible to reconstruct the overall shape and amplitude of the spatial-temporal pattern of sunspots, but that the method in its current form does not have real predictive power. We also apply a metric called structural similarity to compare the forecasted and the observed butterfly cycles, showing that this metric can be a useful addition to the usual root mean square error metric when analysing the efficiency of different prediction methods

Helicopter mathematical models and control law development for handling qualities research

Progress made in joint NASA/Army research concerning rotorcraft flight-dynamics modeling, design methodologies for rotorcraft flight-control laws, and rotorcraft parameter identification is reviewed. Research into these interactive disciplines is needed to develop the analytical tools necessary to conduct flying qualities investigations using both the ground-based and in-flight simulators, and to permit an efficient means of performing flight test evaluation of rotorcraft flying qualities for specification compliance. The need for the research is particularly acute for rotorcraft because of their mathematical complexity, high order dynamic characteristics, and demanding mission requirements. The research in rotorcraft flight-dynamics modeling is pursued along two general directions: generic nonlinear models and nonlinear models for specific rotorcraft. In addition, linear models are generated that extend their utilization from 1-g flight to high-g maneuvers and expand their frequency range of validity for the design analysis of high-gain flight control systems. A variety of methods ranging from classical frequency-domain approaches to modern time-domain control methodology that are used in the design of rotorcraft flight control laws is reviewed. Also reviewed is a study conducted to investigate the design details associated with high-gain, digital flight control systems for combat rotorcraft. Parameter identification techniques developed for rotorcraft applications are reviewed

The Role of Data in Model Building and Prediction: A Survey Through Examples

The goal of Science is to understand phenomena and systems in order to predict their development and gain control over them. In the scientific process of knowledge elaboration, a crucial role is played by models which, in the language of quantitative sciences, mean abstract mathematical or algorithmical representations. This short review discusses a few key examples from Physics, taken from dynamical systems theory, biophysics, and statistical mechanics, representing three paradigmatic procedures to build models and predictions from available data. In the case of dynamical systems we show how predictions can be obtained in a virtually model-free framework using the methods of analogues, and we briefly discuss other approaches based on machine learning methods. In cases where the complexity of systems is challenging, like in biophysics, we stress the necessity to include part of the empirical knowledge in the models to gain the minimal amount of realism. Finally, we consider many body systems where many (temporal or spatial) scales are at play and show how to derive from data a dimensional reduction in terms of a Langevin dynamics for their slow components