Predictive Analytics on Emotional Data Mined from Digital Social Networks with a Focus on Financial Markets

This dissertation is a cumulative dissertation and is comprised of five articles. User-Generated Content (UGC) comprises a substantial part of communication via social media. In this dissertation, UGC that carries and facilitates the exchange of emotions is referred to as “emotional data.” People “produce” emotional data, that is, they express their emotions via tweets, forum posts, blogs, and so on, or they “consume” it by being influenced by expressed sentiments, feelings, opinions, and the like. Decisions often depend on shared emotions and data – which again lead to new data because decisions may change behaviors or results. “Emotional Data Intelligence” ultimately seeks an answer to the question of how all the different emotions expressed in public online sources influence decision-making processes. The overarching research topic of this dissertation follows the question whether network structures and emotional sentiment data extracted from digital social networks contain predictive information or they are just noise. Underlying data was collected from different social media sources, such as Twitter, blogs, message boards, or online news and social networking sites, such as Xing. By means of methodologies of social network analysis (SNA), sentiment analysis, and predictive analysis the individual contributions of this dissertation study whether sentiment data from social media or online social networking structures can predict real-world behaviors. The focus lies on the analysis of emotional data and network structures and its predictive power for financial markets. With the formal construction of the data analyses methodologies introduced in the individual contributions this dissertation contributes to the theories of social network analysis, sentiment analysis, and predictive analytics

The Online Laboratory: Conducting Experiments in a Real Labor Market

Online labor markets have great potential as platforms for conducting experiments, as they provide immediate access to a large and diverse subject pool and allow researchers to conduct randomized controlled trials. We argue that online experiments can be just as valid---both internally and externally---as laboratory and field experiments, while requiring far less money and time to design and to conduct. In this paper, we first describe the benefits of conducting experiments in online labor markets; we then use one such market to replicate three classic experiments and confirm their results. We confirm that subjects (1) reverse decisions in response to how a decision-problem is framed, (2) have pro-social preferences (value payoffs to others positively), and (3) respond to priming by altering their choices. We also conduct a labor supply field experiment in which we confirm that workers have upward sloping labor supply curves. In addition to reporting these results, we discuss the unique threats to validity in an online setting and propose methods for coping with these threats. We also discuss the external validity of results from online domains and explain why online results can have external validity equal to or even better than that of traditional methods, depending on the research question. We conclude with our views on the potential role that online experiments can play within the social sciences, and then recommend software development priorities and best practices

Negotiating cultures in cyberspace

In this paper we report findings of a multidisciplinary study of online participation by culturally diverse participants in a distance adult education course offered in Canada and examine in detail three of the study's findings. First, we explore both the historical and cultural origins of "cyberculture values" as manifested in our findings, using the notions of explicit and implicit enforcement of those values and challenging the assumption that cyberspace is a culture free zone. Second, we examine the notion of cultural gaps between participants in the course and the potential consequences for online communication successes and difficulties. Third, the analysis describes variations in participation frequency as a function of broad cultural groupings in our data. We identify the need for additional research, primarily in the form of larger scale comparisons across cultural groups of patterns of participation and interaction, but also in the form of case studies that can be submitted to microanalyses of the form as well as the content of communicator's participation and interaction online

Student risk identification learning model using machine learning approach

Several challenges are associated with online based learning systems, the most important of which is the lack of student motivation in various course materials and for various course activities. Further, it is important to identify student who are at risk of failing to complete the course on time. The existing models applied machine learning approach for solving it. However, these models are not efficient as they are trained using legacy data and also failed to address imbalanced data issues for both training and testing the classification approach. Further, they are not efficient for classifying new courses. For overcoming these research challenges, this work presented a novel design by training the learning model for identifying risk using current courses. Further, we present an XGBoost classification algorithm that can classify risk for new courses. Experiments are conducted to evaluate performance of proposed model. The outcome shows the proposed model attain significant performance over stat-of-art model in terms of ROC, F-measure, Precision and Recall