Several challenges are associated with online based learning systems, the most important of which is the lack of student motivation in various course materials and for various course activities. Further, it is important to identify student who are at risk of failing to complete the course on time. The existing models applied machine learning approach for solving it. However, these models are not efficient as they are trained using legacy data and also failed to address imbalanced data issues for both training and testing the classification approach. Further, they are not efficient for classifying new courses. For overcoming these research challenges, this work presented a novel design by training the learning model for identifying risk using current courses. Further, we present an XGBoost classification algorithm that can classify risk for new courses. Experiments are conducted to evaluate performance of proposed model. The outcome shows the proposed model attain significant performance over stat-of-art model in terms of ROC, F-measure, Precision and Recall
