Using a weightless neural network to forecast stock prices: A case study of Nigerian stock exchange

This research work, proposes forecasting stock prices in the stock market industry in Nigeria using a Weightless Neural Network (WNN). A neural network application used to demonstrate the application of the WNN in the forecasting of stock prices in the market is designed and implemented in Visual Foxpro 6.0. The proposed network is tested with stock data obtained from the Nigeria Stock Exchange. This system is compared with Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) model. The WNN error value is found to be 0.39 while that of SES is 9.78, based on these values, forecasting with the WNN is observed to be more accurate and closer to the real data than those using the SES model

Identification through technical analysis : A study of charting and UK non-professional investors

The usefulness of technical analysis, or charting, has been questioned because it flies in the face of the 'random walk' and tests present conflicting results. We examine chartists' decision-making techniques and derive a taxonomy of charting strategies based on investors' market ontologies and calculative strategies. This distinguishes between trend-seekers and pattern-seekers, and trading as a system or an art. We argue that interpretative activity plays a more important role than previously thought and suggest that charting's main appeal for users lies in its power as a heuristic device regardless of its effectiveness at generating returns.PostprintPeer reviewe

Energy, carbon and cost performance of building stocks : upgrade analysis, energy labelling and national policy development

The area of policy formulation for the energy and carbon performance of buildings is coming under increasing focus. A major challenge is to account for the large variation within building stocks relative to factors such as location, climate, age, construction, previous upgrades, appliance usage, and type of heating/cooling/lighting system. Existing policy-related tools that rely on simple calculation methods have limited ability to represent the dynamic interconnectedness of technology options and the impact of possible future changes in climate and occupant behaviour. The use of detailed simulation tools to address these limitations in the context of policy development has hitherto been focussed on the modelling of a number of representative designs rather than dealing with the spread inherent in large building stocks. Further, these tools have been research-oriented and largely unsuitable for direct use by policy-makers, practitioners and, ultimately, building owners/occupiers. This paper summarises recent initiatives that have applied advanced modelling and simulation in the context of policy formulation for large building stocks. To exemplify the stages of the process, aspects of the ESRU Domestic Energy Model (EDEM) are described. EDEM is a policy support tool built on detailed simulation models aligned with the outcomes of national surveys and future projections for the housing stock. On the basis of pragmatic inputs, the tool is able to determine energy use, carbon emissions and upgrade/running cost for any national building stock or sub-set. The tool has been used at the behest of the Scottish Building Standards Agency and South Ayrshire Council to determine the impact of housing upgrades, including the deployment of new and renewable energy systems, and to rate the energy/carbon performance of individual dwellings as required by the European Commission's Directive on the Energy Performance of Buildings (EC 2002)

Applications of physical methods in high-frequency futures markets

In the present work we demonstrate the application of different physical methods to high-frequency or tick-by-tick financial time series data. In particular, we calculate the Hurst exponent and inverse statistics for the price time series taken from a range of futures indices. Additionally, we show that in a limit order book the relaxation times of an imbalanced book state with more demand or supply can be described by stretched exponential laws analogous to those seen in many physical systems.Comment: 14 Pages and 10 figures. Proceeding to the SPIE conference, 4 - 7 December 2007 Australian National Univ. Canberra, ACT, Australi

Building envelope design as a contribution for improvement of urban spaces and social housing environmental quality

The design of building envelope and the definition of its elements, can influence both the quality of the external spaces perception and the living standard referred to internal building spaces. This improvement depends by the planning of some component design. Particularly, solar shadings and integrated plant solutions, also thanks to an increasing consequential interest about the issue and the legislative and normative evolution, represent factors able to be involved both in the performance and morphological quality of building envelope (improvement of energy efficiency and living quality of internal spaces), which can influence the perception of environment. A study about this questions has been conducted through the elaboration of a system of Best Pratices, a Code of Practice, for the new Plans of Zone of Rome Municipality. The indications contained in the Code takes in examination the integration-mitigation and facilities connection of solar collectors in the building design, and the possibility of integration between solar shading and collector elements, customized like a support tool for the sustainable design of building envelope. The design of building envelope, reported to morphological and technological issues, can assume particular importance in the definition of living quality. Design of closures, developed through some indications referred to its technological components, can influence both the quality perception of external living spaces through the morphological definition of building, and the life quality of internal spaces by the implementation of energy efficiency of building system. Solar shading in particular, also thanks to the increasing consequential interest in the evolution of legislation about the argument, more in the future will represent a fundamental element for design and the increment of performance and morphological quality of building enclosure