Fuzzy multi criteria evaluation for performance of bus companies

A multi criteria decision making in ranking the bus companies using fuzzy rule is proposed. The proposed method uses the application of fuzzy sets and approximate reasoning in deciding the ranking of the performance of several bus companies. The proposed method introduces data normalization using similarity function which dampens extreme values that exist in the data. The use of the model is suitable in evaluating situation that involves subjectivity, vagueness and imprecise information. Experimental results are comparable to several previous methods

Evaluation of Corporate Sustainability

As a consequence of an increasing demand in sustainable development for business organizations, the evaluation of corporate sustainability has become a topic intensively focused by academic researchers and business practitioners. Several techniques in the context of multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) have been suggested to facilitate the evaluation and the analysis of sustainability performance. However, due to the complexity of evaluation, such as a compilation of quantitative and qualitative measures, interrelationships among various sustainability criteria, the assessor’s hesitation in scoring, or incomplete information, simple techniques may not be able to generate reliable results which can reflect the overall sustainability performance of a company. This paper proposes a series of mathematical formulations based upon the evidential reasoning (ER) approach which can be used to aggregate results from qualitative judgments with quantitative measurements under various types of complex and uncertain situations. The evaluation of corporate sustainability through the ER model is demonstrated using actual data generated from three sugar manufacturing companies in Thailand. The proposed model facilitates managers in analysing the performance and identifying improvement plans and goals. It also simplifies decision making related to sustainable development initiatives. The model can be generalized to a wider area of performance assessment, as well as to any cases of multiple criteria analysis

Judge:Don't Vote!

This article explains why the traditional model of the theory of social choice misrepresents reality, it cannot lead to acceptable methods of ranking and electing in any case, and a more realistic model leads inevitably to one method of ranking and electing—majority judgment—that best meets the traditional criteria of what constitutes a good method.Arrow's paradox ; Condorcet's paradox ; Majority judgment ; Skating ; Social choice ; Strategic manipulation ; Voting

Fuzzy subjective evaluation of Asia Pacific airport services

This paper presents a fuzzy decision-making model to determine the ranking of fourteen Asia Pacific airports based on the services provided to passengers. Airport services were represented by six attributes namely comfort, processing time, convenience, courtesy of staff, information visibility and security. Data for the attributes given by travel experts are in the triangular fuzzy number form. Based on fuzzy set and approximate reasoning, the model allows decision makers to make the best choice in accordance with human thinking and reasoning processes.The use of fuzzy rules which are extracted directly from the input data in making evaluation, contributes to a better decision and is less dependent on experts.Experimental results show that the proposed model is comparable to previous studies.The model is suitable for various fuzzy environments

The PeerRank Method for Peer Assessment

We propose the PeerRank method for peer assessment. This constructs a grade for an agent based on the grades proposed by the agents evaluating the agent. Since the grade of an agent is a measure of their ability to grade correctly, the PeerRank method weights grades by the grades of the grading agent. The PeerRank method also provides an incentive for agents to grade correctly. As the grades of an agent depend on the grades of the grading agents, and as these grades themselves depend on the grades of other agents, we define the PeerRank method by a fixed point equation similar to the PageRank method for ranking web-pages. We identify some formal properties of the PeerRank method (for example, it satisfies axioms of unanimity, no dummy, no discrimination and symmetry), discuss some examples, compare with related work and evaluate the performance on some synthetic data. Our results show considerable promise, reducing the error in grade predictions by a factor of 2 or more in many cases over the natural baseline of averaging peer grades.Comment: To appear in Proc. of ECAI 201

Estimating Probabilities of Default for Low Default Portfolios

For credit risk management purposes in general, and for allocation of regulatory capital by banks in particular (Basel II), numerical assessments of the credit-worthiness of borrowers are indispensable. These assessments are expressed in terms of probabilities of default (PD) that should incorporate a certain degree of conservatism in order to reflect the prudential risk management style banks are required to apply. In case of credit portfolios that did not at all suffer defaults, or very few defaults only over years, the resulting naive zero or close to zero estimates would clearly not involve such a sufficient conservatism. As an attempt to overcome this issue, we suggest the "most prudent estimation" principle. This means to estimate the PDs by upper confidence bounds while guaranteeing at the same time a PD ordering that respects the differences in credit quality indicated by the rating grades. The methodology is most easily applied under an assumption of independent default events but can be adapted to the case of correlated defaults.Comment: 24 pages, LaTeX; sections on scaling and the multi-period case adde