Simulation of all-scale atmospheric dynamics on unstructured meshes

The advance of massively parallel computing in the nineteen nineties and beyond encouraged finer grid intervals in numerical weather-prediction models. This has improved resolution of weather systems and enhanced the accuracy of forecasts, while setting the trend for development of unified all-scale atmospheric models. This paper first outlines the historical background to a wide range of numerical methods advanced in the process. Next, the trend is illustrated with a technical review of a versatile nonoscillatory forward-in-time finite-volume (NFTFV) approach, proven effective in simulations of atmospheric flows from small-scale dynamics to global circulations and climate. The outlined approach exploits the synergy of two specific ingredients: the MPDATA methods for the simulation of fluid flows based on the sign-preserving properties of upstream differencing; and the flexible finite-volume median-dual unstructured-mesh discretisation of the spatial differential operators comprising PDEs of atmospheric dynamics. The paper consolidates the concepts leading to a family of generalised nonhydrostatic NFTFV flow solvers that include soundproof PDEs of incompressible Boussinesq, anelastic and pseudo-incompressible systems, common in large-eddy simulation of small- and meso-scale dynamics, as well as all-scale compressible Euler equations. Such a framework naturally extends predictive skills of large-eddy simulation to the global atmosphere, providing a bottom-up alternative to the reverse approach pursued in the weather-prediction models. Theoretical considerations are substantiated by calculations attesting to the versatility and efficacy of the NFTFV approach. Some prospective developments are also discussed

Intelligent model for offshore China sea fog forecasting

Accurate and timely prediction of sea fog is very important for effectively managing maritime and coastal economic activities. Given the intricate nature and inherent variability of sea fog, traditional numerical and statistical forecasting methods are often proven inadequate. This study aims to develop an advanced sea fog forecasting method embedded in a numerical weather prediction model using the Yangtze River Estuary (YRE) coastal area as a case study. Prior to training our machine learning model, we employ a time-lagged correlation analysis technique to identify key predictors and decipher the underlying mechanisms driving sea fog occurrence. In addition, we implement ensemble learning and a focal loss function to address the issue of imbalanced data, thereby enhancing the predictive ability of our model. To verify the accuracy of our method, we evaluate its performance using a comprehensive dataset spanning one year, which encompasses both weather station observations and historical forecasts. Remarkably, our machine learning-based approach surpasses the predictive performance of two conventional methods, the weather research and forecasting nonhydrostatic mesoscale model (WRF-NMM) and the algorithm developed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Forecast Systems Laboratory (FSL). Specifically, in regard to predicting sea fog with a visibility of less than or equal to 1 km with a lead time of 60 hours, our methodology achieves superior results by increasing the probability of detection (POD) while simultaneously reducing the false alarm ratio (FAR).Comment: 19 pages, 9 figure

A Review of Element-Based Galerkin Methods for Numerical Weather Prediction: Finite Elements, Spectral Elements, and Discontinuous Galerkin

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) is in a period of transition. As resolutions increase, global models are moving towards fully nonhydrostatic dynamical cores, with the local and global models using the same governing equations; therefore we have reached a point where it will be necessary to use a single model for both applications. The new dynamical cores at the heart of these unified models are designed to scale efficiently on clusters with hundreds of thousands or even millions of CPU cores and GPUs. Operational and research NWP codes currently use a wide range of numerical methods: finite differences, spectral transform, finite volumes and, increasingly, finite/spectral elements and discontinuous Galerkin, which constitute element-based Galerkin (EBG) methods.Due to their important role in this transition, will EBGs be the dominant power behind NWP in the next 10 years, or will they just be one of many methods to choose from? One decade after the review of numerical methods for atmospheric modeling by Steppeler et al. (Meteorol Atmos Phys 82:287–301, 2003), this review discusses EBG methods as a viable numerical approach for the next-generation NWP models. One well-known weakness of EBG methods is the generation of unphysical oscillations in advection-dominated flows; special attention is hence devoted to dissipation-based stabilization methods. Since EBGs are geometrically flexible and allow both conforming and non-conforming meshes, as well as grid adaptivity, this review is concluded with a short overview of how mesh generation and dynamic mesh refinement are becoming as important for atmospheric modeling as they have been for engineering applications for many years.The authors would like to thank Prof. Eugenio Oñate (U. Politècnica de Catalunya) for his invitation to submit this review article. They are also thankful to Prof. Dale Durran (U. Washington), Dr. Tommaso Benacchio (Met Office), and Dr. Matias Avila (BSC-CNS) for their comments and corrections, as well as insightful discussion with Sam Watson, Consulting Software Engineer (Exa Corp.) Most of the contribution to this article by the first author stems from his Ph.D. thesis carried out at the Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSCCNS) and Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Spain, supported by a BSC-CNS student grant, by Iberdrola Energías Renovables, and by grant N62909-09-1-4083 of the Office of Naval Research Global. At NPS, SM, AM, MK, and FXG were supported by the Office of Naval Research through program element PE-0602435N, the Air Force Office of Scientific Research through the Computational Mathematics program, and the National Science Foundation (Division of Mathematical Sciences) through program element 121670. The scalability studies of the atmospheric model NUMA that are presented in this paper used resources of the Argonne Leadership Computing Facility, which is a DOE Office of Science User Facility supported under Contract DE-AC02-06CH11357. SM, MK, and AM are grateful to the National Research Council of the National Academies.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Advances in the WRF model for convection-resolving forecasting

International audienceThe Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model has been designed to be an efficient and flexible simulation system for use across a broad range of weather-forecast and idealized-research applications. Of particular interest is the use of WRF in nonhydrostatic applications in which moist-convective processes are treated explicitly, thereby avoiding the ambiguities of cumulus parameterization. To evaluate the capabilities of WRF for convection-resolving applications, real-time forecasting experiments have been conducted with 4 km horizontal mesh spacing for both convective systems in the central U.S. and for hurricanes approaching landfall in the southeastern U.S. These forecasts demonstrate a good potential for improving the forecast accuracy of the timing and location of these systems, as well as providing more detailed information on their structure and evolution that is not available in current coarser resolution operational forecast models