A Structure of Problem Solving Methods for Real Time Decision Support in Traffic Control

This article describes a knowledge-based application in the domain of road traffic management that we have developed following a knowledge modeling approach and the notion of problem-solving method. The article presents first a domain-independent model for real-time decision support as a structured collection of problem solving methods. Then, it is described how this general model is used to develop an operational version for the domain of traffic management. For this purpose, a particular knowledge modeling tool, called KSM (Knowledge Structure Manager), was applied. Finally, the article shows an application developed for a traffic network of the city of Madrid and it is compared with a second application developed for a different traffic area of the city of Barcelona

Engineering Agent Systems for Decision Support

This paper discusses how agent technology can be applied to the design of advanced Information Systems for Decision Support. In particular, it describes the different steps and models that are necessary to engineer Decision Support Systems based on a multiagent architecture. The approach is illustrated by a case study in the traffic management domain

Reusable Knowledge-based Components for Building Software Applications: A Knowledge Modelling Approach

In computer science, different types of reusable components for building software applications were proposed as a direct consequence of the emergence of new software programming paradigms. The success of these components for building applications depends on factors such as the flexibility in their combination or the facility for their selection in centralised or distributed environments such as internet. In this article, we propose a general type of reusable component, called primitive of representation, inspired by a knowledge-based approach that can promote reusability. The proposal can be understood as a generalisation of existing partial solutions that is applicable to both software and knowledge engineering for the development of hybrid applications that integrate conventional and knowledge based techniques. The article presents the structure and use of the component and describes our recent experience in the development of real-world applications based on this approach

Certainty Closure: Reliable Constraint Reasoning with Incomplete or Erroneous Data

Constraint Programming (CP) has proved an effective paradigm to model and solve difficult combinatorial satisfaction and optimisation problems from disparate domains. Many such problems arising from the commercial world are permeated by data uncertainty. Existing CP approaches that accommodate uncertainty are less suited to uncertainty arising due to incomplete and erroneous data, because they do not build reliable models and solutions guaranteed to address the user's genuine problem as she perceives it. Other fields such as reliable computation offer combinations of models and associated methods to handle these types of uncertain data, but lack an expressive framework characterising the resolution methodology independently of the model. We present a unifying framework that extends the CP formalism in both model and solutions, to tackle ill-defined combinatorial problems with incomplete or erroneous data. The certainty closure framework brings together modelling and solving methodologies from different fields into the CP paradigm to provide reliable and efficient approches for uncertain constraint problems. We demonstrate the applicability of the framework on a case study in network diagnosis. We define resolution forms that give generic templates, and their associated operational semantics, to derive practical solution methods for reliable solutions.Comment: Revised versio

Uncertainty and risk: politics and analysis

In environmental and sustainable development policy issues, and in infrastructural megaprojects and issues of innovative medical technologies as well, public authorities face emergent complexity, high value diversity, difficult-to-structure problems, high decision stakes, high uncertainty, and thus risk. In practice, it is believed, this often leads to crises, controversies, deadlocks, and policy fiascoes. Decision-makers are said to face a crisis in coping with uncertainty. Both the cognitive structure of uncertainty and the political structure of risk decisions have been studied. So far, these scientific literatures exist side by side, with few apparent efforts at theoretically conceptualizing and empirically testing the links between the two. Therefore, this exploratory and conceptual paper takes up the challenge: How should we conceptualize the cognitive structure of uncertainty? How should we conceptualize the political structure of risk? How can we conceptualize the link(s) between the two? Is there any empirical support for a conceptualization that bridges the analytical and political aspects of risk? What are the implications for guidelines for risk analysis and assessment

Robust measurement-based buffer overflow probability estimators for QoS provisioning and traffic anomaly prediction applicationm

Suitable estimators for a class of Large Deviation approximations of rare event probabilities based on sample realizations of random processes have been proposed in our earlier work. These estimators are expressed as non-linear multi-dimensional optimization problems of a special structure. In this paper, we develop an algorithm to solve these optimization problems very efficiently based on their characteristic structure. After discussing the nature of the objective function and constraint set and their peculiarities, we provide a formal proof that the developed algorithm is guaranteed to always converge. The existence of efficient and provably convergent algorithms for solving these problems is a prerequisite for using the proposed estimators in real time problems such as call admission control, adaptive modulation and coding with QoS constraints, and traffic anomaly detection in high data rate communication networks

Robust measurement-based buffer overflow probability estimators for QoS provisioning and traffic anomaly prediction applications

Suitable estimators for a class of Large Deviation approximations of rare event probabilities based on sample realizations of random processes have been proposed in our earlier work. These estimators are expressed as non-linear multi-dimensional optimization problems of a special structure. In this paper, we develop an algorithm to solve these optimization problems very efficiently based on their characteristic structure. After discussing the nature of the objective function and constraint set and their peculiarities, we provide a formal proof that the developed algorithm is guaranteed to always converge. The existence of efficient and provably convergent algorithms for solving these problems is a prerequisite for using the proposed estimators in real time problems such as call admission control, adaptive modulation and coding with QoS constraints, and traffic anomaly detection in high data rate communication networks