Comparing Decision Trees and Association Rules for Stock Market Expectations in BIST100 and BIST30

With the increased financial fragility, methods have been needed to predict financial data effectively. In this study, two leading data mining technologies, classification analysis and association rule mining, are implemented for modeling potentially successful and risky stocks on the BIST 30 index and BIST 100 Index based on the key variables of index name, index value, and stock price. Classification and Regression Tree (CART) is used for classification, and Apriori is applied for association analysis. The study data set covered monthly closing values during 2013-2019. The Apriori algorithm also obtained almost all of the classification rules generated with the CART algorithm. Validated by two promising data mining techniques, proposed rules guide decision-makers in their investment decisions. By providing early warning signals of risky stocks, these rules can be used to minimize risk levels and protect decision-makers from making risky decisions

BIG DATA ALGORITHMS AND PREDICTION: BINGOS AND RISKY ZONES IN SHARIA STOCK MARKET INDEX

Each country with a stock exchange normally calculates various indexes. So is the case for Malaysia’s Kuala Lumpur Stock exchange (KLSE). FTSE BURSA Malaysia EMAS Sharia price index (FTBMEMA) is one of its Sharia indexes. In an effort to find which other indices may forecast this Sharia index, we selected 23 relevant indexes and two exchange rates. Momentum indicators for short, medium and long term have been calculated for the variables. The objective of this study is to find predictive indicators for FTBMEMA out of the population of 188 original and derived variables. Difficulty arises in reducing the number of variables for regression or other predictive models like neural networks. In this preliminary study, data mining attribute selection algorithms along with cross validation criteria have been used, through the use of Java class library Weka (JCLW), for reducing the number to statistically relevant variables for our regression estimation in an effort to forecast various performance parameters for FTBMEMA like performing either in a mean performance range, having jackpots and bingos or falling into danger zones. Provided the extent of the required predictive accuracy, the results may bring additional insights for diversifying and hedging various types of investment portfolios as well as for maximizing returns by portfolio managers

Collaborative-demographic hybrid for financial: product recommendation

Internship Report presented as the partial requirement for obtaining a Master's degree in Data Science and Advanced AnalyticsDue to the increased availability of mature data mining and analysis technologies supporting CRM processes, several financial institutions are striving to leverage customer data and integrate insights regarding customer behaviour, needs, and preferences into their marketing approach. As decision support systems assisting marketing and commercial efforts, Recommender Systems applied to the financial domain have been gaining increased attention. This thesis studies a Collaborative- Demographic Hybrid Recommendation System, applied to the financial services sector, based on real data provided by a Portuguese private commercial bank. This work establishes a framework to support account managers’ advice on which financial product is most suitable for each of the bank’s corporate clients. The recommendation problem is further developed by conducting a performance comparison for both multi-output regression and multiclass classification prediction approaches. Experimental results indicate that multiclass architectures are better suited for the prediction task, outperforming alternative multi-output regression models on the evaluation metrics considered. Withal, multiclass Feed-Forward Neural Networks, combined with Recursive Feature Elimination, is identified as the topperforming algorithm, yielding a 10-fold cross-validated F1 Measure of 83.16%, and achieving corresponding values of Precision and Recall of 84.34%, and 85.29%, respectively. Overall, this study provides important contributions for positioning the bank’s commercial efforts around customers’ future requirements. By allowing for a better understanding of customers’ needs and preferences, the proposed Recommender allows for more personalized and targeted marketing contacts, leading to higher conversion rates, corporate profitability, and customer satisfaction and loyalty

SINVLIO: using semantics and fuzzy logic to provide individual investment portfolio recommendations

Portfolio selection addresses the problem of how to diversify investments in the most efficient and profitable way possible. Portfolio selection is a field of study that has been broached from several perspectives, including, among others, recommender systems. This paper presents SINVLIO (Semantic INVestment portfoLIO), a tool based on semantic technologies and fuzzy logic techniques that recommends investments grounded in both psychological aspects of the investor and traditional financial parameters of the investments. The results are very encouraging and reveal that SINVLIO makes good recommendations, according to the high degree of agreement between SINVLIO and expert recommendationsThis work is supported by the Spanish Ministry of Industry, Tourism, and Commerce under the projects SONAR2 (TSI-020100-2008-665) and the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation under the project “FINANCIAL LINKED OPEN DATA REASONING AND MANAGEMENT FOR WEB SCIENCE” (TIN2011-27405).Publicad

An Optimal Stock Market Portfolio Proportion Model Using Genetic Algorithm

To reduce the amount of loss due to investment risk, an investor or stockbroker usually forms an optimal stock portfolio. This technique is done to get the maximum return of investment on shares to be purchased. However, in forming a stock portfolio required a fairly complex calculations and certain skills. This work aims to provide an alternative solution in the problem of forming the optimal and efficient stock portfolio composition by designing a system that can help decision making of investors or stockbrokers in preparing stock portfolio in accordance with the policy and risk investment. In this work, determination of optimal stock portfolio composition is constructed by using Genetic Algorithm. The data used in this work are the 4 selected stocks listed on the LQ45 index in 2017. Meanwhile, the calculation of profit and loss rate utilizes a single index model theory. The efficiency of the algorithm has been examined against the population size and crossover and mutation probabilities. The experimental results show that the proposed algorithm can be used as one of solutions to select the optimal stock portfolio

Personalized Finance Advisory through Case-based Recommender Systems and Diversification Strategies

Recommendation of financial investment strategies is a complex and knowledge-intensive task. Typically, financial advisors have to discuss at length with their wealthy clients and have to sift through several investment proposals before finding one able to completely meet investors' needs and constraints. As a consequence, a recent trend in wealth management is to improve the advisory process by exploiting recommendation technologies. This paper proposes a framework for recommendation of asset allocation strategies which combines case-based reasoning with a novel diversification strategy to support financial advisors in the task of proposing diverse and personalized investment portfolios. The performance of the framework has been evaluated by means of an experimental session conducted against 1172 real users, and results show that the yield obtained by recommended portfolios overcomes that of portfolios proposed by human advisors in most experimental settings while meeting the preferred risk profile. Furthermore, our diversification strategy shows promising results in terms of both diversity and average yield

Next-Generation Personalized Investment Recommendations

Recent advances in Big Data and Artificial Intelligence have created new opportunities for AI-based agents, referred to as Robo-Advisors, to provide financial advice and recommendations to investors. In this chapter, we will introduce the concept of investment recommendation and describe how automated services for this task can be developed and tested. In particular, this chapter covers the following core topics: (1) the legal landscape for investment recommendation systems, (2) what financial asset recommendation is and what data it needs to function, (3) how to clean and curate that data, (4) approaches to build/train asset recommendation models and (5) how to evaluate such systems prior to putting them into production

Data Mining in Electronic Commerce

Modern business is rushing toward e-commerce. If the transition is done properly, it enables better management, new services, lower transaction costs and better customer relations. Success depends on skilled information technologists, among whom are statisticians. This paper focuses on some of the contributions that statisticians are making to help change the business world, especially through the development and application of data mining methods. This is a very large area, and the topics we cover are chosen to avoid overlap with other papers in this special issue, as well as to respect the limitations of our expertise. Inevitably, electronic commerce has raised and is raising fresh research problems in a very wide range of statistical areas, and we try to emphasize those challenges.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/088342306000000204 in the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org