A spatio-temporal, Gaussian Process Regression, real-estate price predictor

This paper introduces a novel four-stage methodology for real-estate valuation. This research shows that space, property, economic, neighbourhood and time features are all contributing factors in producing a house price predictor in which validation shows a 96.6% accuracy on Gaussian Process Regression beating regression-kriging, random forests and an M5P-decision-tree. The output is integrated into a commercial real estate decision engine

Road distance and travel time for an improved house price Kriging predictor

The paper designs an automated valuation model to predict the price of residential property in Coventry, United Kingdom, and achieves this by means of geostatistical Kriging, a popularly employed distance-based learning method. Unlike traditional applications of distance-based learning, this papers implements non-Euclidean distance metrics by approximating road distance, travel time and a linear combination of both, which this paper hypothesizes to be more related to house prices than straight-line (Euclidean) distance. Given that – to undertake Kriging – a valid variogram must be produced, this paper exploits the conforming properties of the Minkowski distance function to approximate a road distance and travel time metric. A least squares approach is put forth for variogram parameter selection and an ordinary Kriging predictor is implemented for interpolation. The predictor is then validated with 10-fold cross-validation and a spatially aware checkerboard hold out method against the almost exclusively employed, Euclidean metric. Given a comparison of results for each distance metric, this paper witnesses a goodness of fit (r²) result of 0.6901 ± 0.18 SD for real estate price prediction compared to the traditional (Euclidean) approach obtaining a suboptimal r² value of 0.66 ± 0.21 SD

Embedding road networks and travel time into distance metrics for urban modelling

Urban environments are restricted by various physical, regulatory and customary barriers such as buildings, one-way systems and pedestrian crossings. These features create challenges for predic- tive modelling in urban space, as most proximity-based models rely on Euclidean (straight line) distance metrics which, given restrictions within the urban landscape, do not fully capture spa- tial urban processes. Here, we argue that road distance and travel time provide effective alternatives, and we develop a new low- dimensional Euclidean distance metric based on these distances using an isomap approach. The purpose of this is to produce a valid covariance matrix for Kriging. Our primary methodological contribution is the derivation of two symmetric dissimilarity matrices (Bþ and B2þ), with which it is possible to compute low- dimensional Euclidean metrics for the production of a positive definite covariance matrix with commonly utilised kernels. This new method is implemented into a Kriging predictor to estimate house prices on 3,669 properties in Coventry, UK. We find that a metric estimating a combination of road distance and travel time, in both R 2 and R 3 , produces a superior house price predictor compared with alternative state-of-the-art methods, that is, a standard Euclidean metric in RN and a non-restricted road dis- tance metric in R2 and R3