On the Consistency of Ordinal Regression Methods

Many of the ordinal regression models that have been proposed in the literature can be seen as methods that minimize a convex surrogate of the zero-one, absolute, or squared loss functions. A key property that allows to study the statistical implications of such approximations is that of Fisher consistency. Fisher consistency is a desirable property for surrogate loss functions and implies that in the population setting, i.e., if the probability distribution that generates the data were available, then optimization of the surrogate would yield the best possible model. In this paper we will characterize the Fisher consistency of a rich family of surrogate loss functions used in the context of ordinal regression, including support vector ordinal regression, ORBoosting and least absolute deviation. We will see that, for a family of surrogate loss functions that subsumes support vector ordinal regression and ORBoosting, consistency can be fully characterized by the derivative of a real-valued function at zero, as happens for convex margin-based surrogates in binary classification. We also derive excess risk bounds for a surrogate of the absolute error that generalize existing risk bounds for binary classification. Finally, our analysis suggests a novel surrogate of the squared error loss. We compare this novel surrogate with competing approaches on 9 different datasets. Our method shows to be highly competitive in practice, outperforming the least squares loss on 7 out of 9 datasets.Comment: Journal of Machine Learning Research 18 (2017

Improving Deep Regression with Ordinal Entropy

In computer vision, it is often observed that formulating regression problems as a classification task often yields better performance. We investigate this curious phenomenon and provide a derivation to show that classification, with the cross-entropy loss, outperforms regression with a mean squared error loss in its ability to learn high-entropy feature representations. Based on the analysis, we propose an ordinal entropy loss to encourage higher-entropy feature spaces while maintaining ordinal relationships to improve the performance of regression tasks. Experiments on synthetic and real-world regression tasks demonstrate the importance and benefits of increasing entropy for regression.Comment: Accepted to ICLR 2023. Project page: https://github.com/needylove/OrdinalEntrop

Applied statistics: A review

The main phases of applied statistical work are discussed in general terms. The account starts with the clarification of objectives and proceeds through study design, measurement and analysis to interpretation. An attempt is made to extract some general notions.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/07-AOAS113 in the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Have Econometric Analyses of Happiness Data Been Futile? A Simple Truth About Happiness Scales

Econometric analyses in the happiness literature typically use subjective well-being (SWB) data to compare the mean of observed or latent happiness across samples. Recent critiques show that comparing the mean of ordinal data is only valid under strong assumptions that are usually rejected by SWB data. This leads to an open question whether much of the empirical studies in the economics of happiness literature have been futile. In order to salvage some of the prior results and avoid future issues, we suggest regression analysis of SWB (and other ordinal data) should focus on the median rather than the mean. Median comparisons using parametric models such as the ordered probit and logit can be readily carried out using familiar statistical softwares like STATA. We also show a previously assumed impractical task of estimating a semiparametric median ordered-response model is also possible by using a novel constrained mixed integer optimization technique. We use GSS data to show the famous Easterlin Paradox from the happiness literature holds for the US independent of any parametric assumption

Time series ordinal classification via shapelets

Nominal time series classification has been widely developed over the last years. However, to the best of our knowledge, ordinal classification of time series is an unexplored field, and this paper proposes a first approach in the context of the shapelet transform (ST). For those time series dataset where there is a natural order between the labels and the number of classes is higher than 2, nominal classifiers are not capable of achieving the best results, because the models impose the same cost of misclassification to all the errors, regardless the difference between the predicted and the ground-truth. In this sense, we consider four different evaluation metrics to do so, three of them of an ordinal nature. The first one is the widely known Information Gain (IG), proved to be very competitive for ST methods, whereas the remaining three measures try to boost the order information by refining the quality measure. These three measures are a reformulation of the Fisher score, the Spearman's correlation coefficient (ρ), and finally, the Pearson's correlation coefficient (R 2 ). An empirical evaluation is carried out, considering 7 ordinal datasets from the UEA & UCR time series classification repository, 4 classifiers (2 of them of nominal nature, whereas the other 2 are of ordinal nature) and 2 performance measures (correct classification rate, CCR, and average mean absolute error, AMAE). The results show that, for both performance metrics, the ST quality metric based on R 2 is able to obtain the best results, specially for AMAE, for which the differences are statistically significant in favour of R 2

The Dynamics of Food Deprivation and Overall Health: Evidence from the Canadian National Population Health Survey

The paper explores whether the responses to food deprivation questions on the longitudinal Canadian National Population Health Survey help explain the links between socio-economic status and health. Transitions in food deprivation status are correlated with changes in health status. While health transitions are correlated with changes in food deprivation status, there is little evidence that change in food deprivation status leads changes in health status but some evidence that change in health status leads change in food deprivation status.Food insecurity; Granger causality; NPHS